Off-season Lookout

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Really? This seems a bit extreme, don't you think?

I've disliked the draft pick since go. He doesn't throw hard enough and isn't deceptive enough to consistently retire major league hitters. He's one of those guys who can look very good when he's on, but his margin for error (due to low velocity) is so slim that it's tough to rely on him to be anything.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

I've disliked the draft pick since go. He doesn't throw hard enough and isn't deceptive enough to consistently retire major league hitters. He's one of those guys who can look very good when he's on, but his margin for error (due to low velocity) is so slim that it's tough to rely on him to be anything.

Never been that bullish on Leake. Always seen him as a high floor/low ceiling guy. Fourth starter (maybe third on a bad team) tops. Might turn into a Bronson-type with age, but I'm not interested in waiting if he will bring a solid bat in a package.

If the Reds would feel comfortable with David DeJesus as a semi-regular CF, I could see them revisiting the rumored Garza/DeJesus deal this offseason. Leake, Stubbs, Ondrusek and a youngster I probably wouldn't want to part with (Corcino?) maybe. Not sure a DeJesus/Heisey combo in CF is what we would want though.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by mth123

I've seen a few people wanting to bring back Madsen. I've even seen some saying the Reds should exercise the $11 Million option. Madsen had his surgery on April 11, 2012.

I concur. I would be willing to bring back Madsen on a rehab contract (with an option for next year), but realistically, if he pitches at all next year, it's unlikely he'll even be reliable.
I have no interest in rehabbing him for one year, and then he goes to another team in 2014..
I'd much rather invest money in Broxton, Ludwick or another player.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by oneupper

I hated the Ludwick signing and he proved me wrong. That said, we may have caught lightning in a bottle with him in 2012.
The point is probably moot. Someone will give him 3/22 or even 4/30 and he's gone.

That's pretty optimistic for Ludwick. He's 34 years old and OPSed over .775 for the first time since 2008. Plus I think we all know GABP had a lot to do with that. I could see him getting a 2-year deal with an option, but there's no way he's getting a 4-year deal imho.

[reds44]

I'm not going any longer than 2 years with Ludwick. He was great this year, but there's no chance I give him 3/22. I was thinking something like 2/14 or 2/16 seems fair.

I imagine you'll see Madson and Broxton brought back. Broxton as an insurance policy as Madson comes back from Tommy John. Chapman will be a starter for the first 3/4 months before they move him back to the pen to limit his innings. Leake starts the year in AAA. They might bring in another mariginal starter they can stash in AAA or in the bullpen too.

I doubt you'll see a major chance in CF because Hamilton will probably be up in September. They may try to go after a DeJesus type player. Hopefully they bring in a bench guy or two. With Rolen being gone and Frazier starting, the bench is even more depleted than it was all year.

Really, this is all I can see coming in from outside the organziation:
Maybe a CFer on a short deal
SP depth
Bench

[oneupper]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

That's pretty optimistic for Ludwick. He's 34 years old and OPSed over .775 for the first time since 2008. Plus I think we all know GABP had a lot to do with that. I could see him getting a 2-year deal with an option, but there's no way he's getting a 4-year deal imho.

Wishful thinking. Ludwick had a great year. He out-hit a good 75%or more of his peers. Guys like Ibanez, Ross, Werth and Carlos Lee are still getting paychecks and playing time.
Dude is going to get paid by someone. He'd be foolish not to cash in. My estimates will wind up being conservative.

[camisadelgolf]

Over the past 4 seasons, he has an OPS+ of 106 i.e. slightly above average. His defense is below average. I agree that now is the time for him to cash in, but I really don't think Ludwick's going to get an offer that will carry him into his age-38 season.

Raul Ibanez - He's currently on a 1-year contract. The contract he signed before that--a 3-year deal for a 36-year-old--was considered by many to be ridiculous. On top of that, he had much better numbers Ludwick's leading up to the deal.

Carlos Lee - In hindsight, it was a horrible contract. He was 30 years old and coming off 4 straight 30-homer seasons when he signed it. He far exceeded what Ludwick has ever done.

Cody Ross - He has never signed a multi-year deal in his life, so I'm not sure how that helps your point.

Jayson Werth - I don't even know how you can compare Ludwick to Werth. Granted, it's considered to be one of dumbest contracts in baseball, but I don't think Ludwick will get offered 25% of the amount of Werth's contract.

[TOBTTReds]

Gotta balance the lineup a bit with another LH bat, whether it's at 3B or LF. We were not good vs. RHP, and Stubbs was the biggest culprit.

[Brutus]

This hating on Leake has gotten almost absurd. Think about this in context of his being a fifth starter. He has a career 4 FIP, essentially. This year his ERA+ was 93.

Now here is the worst starter's ERA+ for each of the other 15 NL teams:

ARI: 92
ATL: 92
CHI: 62
COL: 76
HOU: 76
LAD: 76
MIA: 88
MIL: 72
NYM: 79
PHI: 87
PIT: 74
SDP: 77
SFG: 67
STL: 97
WSH: 98

So there are literally 10-13 other teams in the National League that would love nothing more than to have Mike Leake on their team as he would improve all but two rotations in the league.

If Mike Leake is the guy that people are complaining about, Reds fans have gotten spoiled and too quickly forgotten who the Reds' 'ace' was during the previous 10 years. Leake would have been the Reds' best pitcher in some of those years, or very close to it. He's essentially a league average pitcher pitching as the fifth starter and that's not good enough? Yikes.

[TOBTTReds]

Originally Posted by Brutus

This hating on Leake has gotten almost absurd. Think about this in context of his being a fifth starter. He has a career 4 FIP, essentially. This year his ERA+ was 93.

Now here is the worst starter's ERA+ for each of the other 15 NL teams:

ARI: 92
ATL: 92
CHI: 62
COL: 76
HOU: 76
LAD: 76
MIA: 88
MIL: 72
NYM: 79
PHI: 87
PIT: 74
SDP: 77
SFG: 67
STL: 97
WSH: 98

So there are literally 10-13 other teams in the National League that would love nothing more than to have Mike Leake on their team as he would improve all but two rotations in the league.

If Mike Leake is the guy that people are complaining about, Reds fans have gotten spoiled and too quickly forgotten who the Reds' 'ace' was during the previous 10 years. Leake would have been the Reds' best pitcher in some of those years, or very close to it. He's essentially a league average pitcher pitching as the fifth starter and that's not good enough? Yikes.

IIRC, he's a 1.0 WAR batter too.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by TOBTTReds

IIRC, he's a 1.0 WAR batter too.

Yep. He can hit, run the bases and field his position on top of being a 200-inning fifth starter putting up league-average production.

But there are people that don't want that?

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Yep. He can hit, run the bases and field his position on top of being a 200-inning fifth starter putting up league-average production.

But there are people that don't want that?

Of all the qualified pitchers in the NL, Leake allowed the highest line drive rate at 24.5%. Leake allowed a higher home run rate per nine innings than any Reds pitcher except for Ondrusek, Cingrani, Bray, and Redmond.

I like Leake. He is very competitive and can be a good ground ball type pitcher.

But he was hit hard this year and mostly allowed way too many homers for a pitcher of his type. And again he allowed homers in his playoff appearance.

IMO, Bailey has surpassed Leake right now and Mike really needs to step it up next year, if he's still a Red.

I'm no longer as high on him as you are. If the Reds convert Chapman to starting, I have no trouble dealing Leake or using him in relief.

On the other hand - and this showed in the playoffs - Leake and Latos are both now 24 years old. They are babies in terms of high end MLB pitchers. So they certainly both have lots of time to improve. And talent and determination. And will learn from the playoffs this year.

Watching CC last night, I realized how tough things were in the fourth and fifth games for the Reds, with such young pitchers throwing such big games.

[TOBTTReds]

Originally Posted by Brutus

This hating on Leake has gotten almost absurd. Think about this in context of his being a fifth starter. He has a career 4 FIP, essentially. This year his ERA+ was 93.

Now here is the worst starter's ERA+ for each of the other 15 NL teams:

ARI: 92
ATL: 92
CHI: 62
COL: 76
HOU: 76
LAD: 76
MIA: 88
MIL: 72
NYM: 79
PHI: 87
PIT: 74
SDP: 77
SFG: 67
STL: 97
WSH: 98

So there are literally 10-13 other teams in the National League that would love nothing more than to have Mike Leake on their team as he would improve all but two rotations in the league.

If Mike Leake is the guy that people are complaining about, Reds fans have gotten spoiled and too quickly forgotten who the Reds' 'ace' was during the previous 10 years. Leake would have been the Reds' best pitcher in some of those years, or very close to it. He's essentially a league average pitcher pitching as the fifth starter and that's not good enough? Yikes.

IIRC, he's a 1.0 WAR batter too.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by Brutus

This hating on Leake has gotten almost absurd. Think about this in context of his being a fifth starter. He has a career 4 FIP, essentially. This year his ERA+ was 93.

Now here is the worst starter's ERA+ for each of the other 15 NL teams:

ARI: 92
ATL: 92
CHI: 62
COL: 76
HOU: 76
LAD: 76
MIA: 88
MIL: 72
NYM: 79
PHI: 87
PIT: 74
SDP: 77
SFG: 67
STL: 97
WSH: 98

So there are literally 10-13 other teams in the National League that would love nothing more than to have Mike Leake on their team as he would improve all but two rotations in the league.

If Mike Leake is the guy that people are complaining about, Reds fans have gotten spoiled and too quickly forgotten who the Reds' 'ace' was during the previous 10 years. Leake would have been the Reds' best pitcher in some of those years, or very close to it. He's essentially a league average pitcher pitching as the fifth starter and that's not good enough? Yikes.

Not hatin' on him, just think he can (and should) be improved upon.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by reds44

I'm not going any longer than 2 years with Ludwick. He was great this year, but there's no chance I give him 3/22. I was thinking something like 2/14 or 2/16 seems fair.

I imagine you'll see Madson and Broxton brought back. Broxton as an insurance policy as Madson comes back from Tommy John. Chapman will be a starter for the first 3/4 months before they move him back to the pen to limit his innings. Leake starts the year in AAA. They might bring in another mariginal starter they can stash in AAA or in the bullpen too.

I doubt you'll see a major chance in CF because Hamilton will probably be up in September. They may try to go after a DeJesus type player. Hopefully they bring in a bench guy or two. With Rolen being gone and Frazier starting, the bench is even more depleted than it was all year.

Really, this is all I can see coming in from outside the organziation:
Maybe a CFer on a short deal
SP depth
Bench

I don't buy the "Chapman to the Pen" talk anymore. not after his dominant performance in the Closer role this year. Yeah, closer is mostly an over-rated position, but not necessarily when you get someone someone of Aroldis' caliber.

Anyone who thinks simply moving AC to the rotation gives you a slamdunk ACE is wildly optomistic. Part of his dominance in the pen is he world class velocity. Move him to the rotation and that becomes a more "pedestrian" 94-95 on the top end (not to mention how starting would affect his control and other factors). The other question is stamina. He needed to be "mini-strassberg'd" as it was this season. When would he need to be shutdown if asked to throw starters innings?

I could see them under-going a to-the-rotation experiment on a team that is not yet a contender, but the dominant bullpen was a large factor in the Reds success this year and no one was bigger than Aroldis. Will Walt risk that on an experiment? I don't see it. I think it is much move likely that he keeps aroldis where his is, instead of possibly weakening two spots that don't need to be risked by moving him.

I believe it is much more feasible and likely Jocketty keeps him right where he is and look outside the organization if he chooses to seek an upgrade over Leake.