Offseason Priorities

[LegallyMinded]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

4. Short term fix or long term fix in CF? And how do you acquire someone? What are the options?

BPA with the best OBP (plus solid D). This club needs a CF who can get on base and play adequate D. I love Billy's potential, but he shouldn't factor into the equation for CF in 2013 in the least. Go get a CF like Fowler or Span and imporve the club now. It keeps you from having to rush Billy also. Then, if Billy forces his way out of L'Ville then you can trade Fowler or Span easily or maybe if you get one of them, you revisit the move of Billy off SS and deal Cozart and/or Didi. No such thing as having too much solid talent. I would try to deal for Span or Fowler or possibly sign Bourn (not a favorite). I wouldn't look for a short-term answer if a better option is available, but if they go short-term, Shane Victorino or Nate McClouth might be possible. If they want to go with someone who is not necessarily a natural CF (of if you want tomove Bruce to CF) Juston Upton, David DeJesus or Shin-Soo-Choo might be targets.

Chris Young might also be an option. He had a disappointing 2012, largely due to injuries, but his 2010 and 2011 were pretty solid: a .335ish OBP with good defense and decent power. He would certainly be an upgrade over Stubbs, at any rate, considering in 2012 alone, he produced more than twice as many WAR in about 2/3 of the at bats.

Also, Arizona is willing to pay a chunk of his salary to facilitate a trade, and he has a team option for 2014, so if Hamilton looks ready for CF at that point, the Reds can buy out Young and easily make the transition to Hamilton.

[mdccclxix]

I'm hoping Billy Hamilton can make a push for CF out of spring training. I know people will tell me he's not ready, but he hasn't proven that he's not ready yet. Keep Heisey to platoon with Billy.

Stubbs, Leake, Mesoraco and Ondrusek form the core of players available to bring back a very valuable player.

With the new TV money on the horizon, I think the FA market could heat up. It will be interesting to see if teams start to undervalue/overlook cost controlled players again, which would hurt the Reds chances of getting good value on the above players.

[jhu1321]

Fill that gaping whole we've had in CF for 5+ years with Span, find an impact bench player, hope Ludwick agrees with the mutual option, extend Bailey, re-sign Broxton, keep Chapman as the closer and roll into spring locked and loaded.

Span
DatDude
Votto
Bruce (if Dusty isn't back cause another manager would't split those lefties)
Ludwick
Frazier
Cozart
Hanny / Mezo

Cueto
Arroyo
Latos
Bailey
Leake

Bench options: XP, Heisey, Hrod, the new bench guy...

Bullpen: Masset?, Arrendoodoo, Chapman, Marshall, Lecure, Ondrusek, Simon

[mdccclxix]

If Ludwick doesn't come back, expect Phillips back to cleanup and Cozart leading off (unless they find a new CF). Some undesirable outcomes at hand...

Arb eligible players like Valdez, Bailey, Leake, Heisey, Stubbs and Ondrusek could be on the block in order to keep Ludwick (or acquire a similar player), that valuable starting LF this team needs.

At the same time, a CF with Hamilton would potentially pay dividends in several directions and needs to be a big consideration. Why spend on Span with Billy almost ready, for example.

I remember when Votto was 22-23 years old, many felt he was ready at the plate, including himself, but the defense was the hold up. I say, don't let that keep Hamilton down too long either. If he's not with the club in April, then at least by early June. Please.

In the meantime commit to Heisey and trade Stubbs.

Hamilton
Cozart
Votto
Phillips
Bruce
Frazier
LF/3b acquired
C

That's just one scenario, but I feel like it's the most they can do with the outlook of Ludwick's likely pay raise and our limited knowledge of who they might trade/acquire.

[Scrap Irony]

1. Leake, Arredondo, Ondrusek, and Bray for Dexter Fowler. Add prospects not named Stephenson, Corcino, Cingrani, or Hamilton as needed. (2012 draftees cannot be dealt.)

2. Cairo and Rolen retire.

3. Sign Nick Swisher to play LF.

4. Chapman to starting rotation, Cingrani to pen, Corcino to AAA as starting depth.

5. Re-sign at least one of Broxton or Madson.

Phillips 2B
Fowler CF
Votto 1B
Swisher LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Hanigan C
Cozart SS

Rotation
Cueto
Latos
Bailey
Chapman
Arroyo

Bullpen
Madson/ Broxton
Hoover
Marshall
LeCure
Cingrani
Simon

Bench
H. Rodriguez 2B/3B
Gregorius SS/ 2B
Heisey CF/ COF
Mesoraco C
Paul OF

Billy Hamilton isn't going to be ready this season unless something amazing happens. He may not even be ready next season.

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by Kc61

According to ESPN, the Reds were below average in BOTH BA and OBP. BA was .251 and league average was .254. There is no reason to distinguish so heavily between the two. The Reds are deficient in both categories.

And while Votto's OBP dramatically improved the team's OBP, his BA did the same. He hit .337. The only other regular above .280 was Phillips, at .281.

The Reds are a team that hits for power but not for average, not for OBP. And I agree with you that in MANY areas, Votto's outstanding numbers improve the team's overall average. Just as Chapman's numbers dramatically improved the bullpen stats. So we have to look deeper sometimes than just overall team average.

As for the playoffs, the Reds did score a lot of runs in the first two games, but only got 8 in the last three, and of course gave up a bunch in games four and five. The failures in those last three games include hitting, pitching, and defense.

For the Reds offense to be top notch they need more lefty/righty balance, more contact, more OBP. They can live with slightly less power to make the trade off. I've felt this way all year.

The Reds were very slightly below league average in BA (9th in the 16-team NL), but well below average in OBP (12th in the NL). Votto had a historically high OBP -- a truly remarkable OBP way, way better than anybody else in the league. His batting average was good too, but not to the extent that his OBP was.

Batting average has been proven to be not much of a factor in run scoring. Talking and worrying about batting average is a waste of time. The Reds need to improve their OBP and their SLG if they want to score more runs. Chasing batting average is just as likely to lead you astray as help you. Batting average has two huge flaws (counts all hits the same, ignores BBs and HBPs) that make it pretty much a worthless statistic, especially when you consider there are vastly superior statistics readily available (wOBA being the best and OPS second best).

The Reds can't afford to trade any of their power to improve contact. That would be a losing proposition. The Reds have a little better than average power (SLG 6th in NL), but their power is not good enough to be a top offense. The Reds need a huge boost in OBP and a big boost in SLG if they want to come close to leading the league in runs scored.

The only reason I even mentioned batting average in the earlier post was because people were saying the playoffs exposed an alleged Reds' batting average problem -- even though the Reds had the highest batting average in the playoffs.

[mdccclxix]

It's pretty clear the Reds are at the mercy of Ludwick. Payroll will burgeon to 80+ with or without him, it's just a matter of how many deferrals, etc the team has up it's sleeve.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

The Reds were very slightly below league average in BA (9th in the 16-team NL), but well below average in OBP (12th in the NL). Votto had a historically high OBP -- a truly remarkable OBP way, way better than anybody else in the league. His batting average was good too, but not to the extent that his OBP was.

Batting average has been proven to be not much of a factor in run scoring. Talking and worrying about batting average is a waste of time. The Reds need to improve their OBP and their SLG if they want to score more runs. Chasing batting average is just as likely to lead you astray as help you. Batting average has two huge flaws (counts all hits the same, ignores BBs and HBPs) that make it pretty much a worthless statistic, especially when you consider there are vastly superior statistics readily available (wOBA being the best and OPS second best).

The Reds can't afford to trade any of their power to improve contact. That would be a losing proposition. The Reds have a little better than average power (SLG 6th in NL), but their power is not good enough to be a top offense. The Reds need a huge boost in OBP and a big boost in SLG if they want to come close to leading the league in runs scored.

The only reason I even mentioned batting average in the earlier post was because people were saying the playoffs exposed an alleged Reds' batting average problem -- even though the Reds had the highest batting average in the playoffs.

I won't go along with AVG being worthless, but do agree there are some fundamental problems with trading slugging for average, a la Henry R. for Ludwick. That won't help much of anything.

That said, Frazier for Rolen is a good start to improving the offense.

Hamilton for Stubbs could improve a lot if Billy can OBP .340. Stubbs' slugging % is what I feel the Reds have always been chasing after. This would have to be a wash at best if these two were swapped. Heisey, as always could provide insurance. If Ludwick goes, I think they hesitate to trade Stubbs.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by jhu1321

Fill that gaping whole we've had in CF for 5+ years with Span,

I think everyone would welcome Span, but the Twins are supposedly asking a king's ransom for him, due to his "friendly contract".. Again, not saying it's a bad idea to get Span (I would like it), but Span is not a guy that I mortgage my future for.. especially with Billy on the horizon.. For example, I would not give up 3 top prospects for Span.. and I think that's what the asking price was at the deadline.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

1. Leake, Arredondo, Ondrusek, and Bray for Dexter Fowler. Add prospects not named Stephenson, Corcino, Cingrani, or Hamilton as needed. (2012 draftees cannot be dealt.)

2. Cairo and Rolen retire.

3. Sign Nick Swisher to play LF.

4. Chapman to starting rotation, Cingrani to pen, Corcino to AAA as starting depth.

5. Re-sign at least one of Broxton or Madson.

Phillips 2B
Fowler CF
Votto 1B
Swisher LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Hanigan C
Cozart SS

Rotation
Cueto
Latos
Bailey
Chapman
Arroyo

Bullpen
Madson/ Broxton
Hoover
Marshall
LeCure
Cingrani
Simon

Bench
H. Rodriguez 2B/3B
Gregorius SS/ 2B
Heisey CF/ COF
Mesoraco C
Paul OF

Billy Hamilton isn't going to be ready this season unless something amazing happens. He may not even be ready next season.

I'd think Fowler would command more than Leake and 3 relievers, but who knows. I also don't know if they have enough money for a FA slugger. That said, I don't know, which means maybe they come up with some cash to push payroll into the 90-95 range.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by jhu1321

Span
DatDude
Votto
Bruce (if Dusty isn't back cause another manager would't split those lefties)
Ludwick
Frazier
Cozart
Hanny / Mezo

Batting Ludwick bewtwen Votto and Bruce mad alot of sense this year for a number of years.

Firstly, Ludwick was more productive.

Secondly, if the opponents brought in a LOOGY to fave Votto and Bruce, it ensured Ludwick would get to hit vs. a lefty whom he was very good against.

[Rojo]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

Chasing batting average is just as likely to lead you astray as help you.

Agreed, sort of. We shouldn't be looking to necessarily lift team BA. But we should look at adding at least one BA-driven high-OB bat.

There's some alchemy with adding in a Pete Rose (for example) to a lineup of sluggers, walkers and runners. At the end of the season, it might barely push the dial in total Runs Scored but it helps with the close ones.

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

The Reds were very slightly below league average in BA (9th in the 16-team NL), but well below average in OBP (12th in the NL). Votto had a historically high OBP -- a truly remarkable OBP way, way better than anybody else in the league. His batting average was good too, but not to the extent that his OBP was.

Batting average has been proven to be not much of a factor in run scoring. Talking and worrying about batting average is a waste of time. The Reds need to improve their OBP and their SLG if they want to score more runs. Chasing batting average is just as likely to lead you astray as help you. Batting average has two huge flaws (counts all hits the same, ignores BBs and HBPs) that make it pretty much a worthless statistic, especially when you consider there are vastly superior statistics readily available (wOBA being the best and OPS second best).

The Reds can't afford to trade any of their power to improve contact. That would be a losing proposition. The Reds have a little better than average power (SLG 6th in NL), but their power is not good enough to be a top offense. The Reds need a huge boost in OBP and a big boost in SLG if they want to come close to leading the league in runs scored.

The only reason I even mentioned batting average in the earlier post was because people were saying the playoffs exposed an alleged Reds' batting average problem -- even though the Reds had the highest batting average in the playoffs.

I apologize for quoting my own post but I wanted to add an interesting sidebar to the topic.

Joey Votto's .474 OBP this year was the highest in Cincinnati Reds history! He broke Joe Morgan's record of .466 set in 1975.

Rank	Player	On-Base%	Year
1.	Joey Votto	.474	2012
2.	Joe Morgan	.466	1975
3.	Bernie Carbo	.454	1970
4.	Augie Galan	.449	1947
5.	Joe Morgan	.444	1976
6.	Rube Bressler	.433	1926
7.	Kal Daniels	.429	1987
7.	Kevin Mitchell	.429	1994
7.	Cy Seymour	.429	1905
10.	Pete Rose	.428	1969

Votto's OBP could have been almost 50 points lower and would still have been in the top 10.

Here are the Reds' career leaders in OBP:

Rank	Player	On-Base%	PA
1.	Joe Morgan	.415	4973
 	Joey Votto	.415	3064
3.	Johnny Bates	.401	1628
4.	Dummy Hoy	.392	2582
5.	Frank Robinson	.389	6408
6.	Mike Smith	.382	1568
7.	Adam Dunn	.380	4562
8.	Rube Bressler	.379	2543
 	Pete Rose	.379	12344
10.	Heinie Groh	.378	5162
 	Cy Seymour	.378	2420
 	Curt Walker	.378	3945

Votto's .4155 OBP ranks him 24th in major league history. The only active player with a better OBP than Votto is Todd Helton with his .4189 mark. The all-time leader is Ted Williams at .4817 OBP.

While Votto is tied with Joe Morgan atop the Reds' career OBP ranks at .415, Morgan's total career OBP is only .3921 tied for 95th all-time.

[jhu1321]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Batting Ludwick bewtwen Votto and Bruce mad alot of sense this year for a number of years.

Firstly, Ludwick was more productive.

Secondly, if the opponents brought in a LOOGY to fave Votto and Bruce, it ensured Ludwick would get to hit vs. a lefty whom he was very good against.

Good points but I think we would probably see a regression in his power numbers next year given his age and the fact that he's hit that many homeruns one other time in his career. Bruce appears to be turning into a more "prototypical" cleanup hitter. Non-the-less the LOOGY argument is compelling.

[Vottomatic]

1. Leake, Ondrusek, Chad "Sharky" Rogers for Dexter Fowler. Rockies need pitching badly. Gives them a young starter and a decent minor league pitcher.

2. Cairo and Rolen retire.

3. Trade Chapman/Corcino to Miami for Giancarlo Stanton. (yes, it can be done.....it's the friggin' Marlins organization. They like Cubans for their fanbase. )

4. Re-sign BOTH Broxton AND Madson.

5. Trade Mez and Cingrani to the Rays for Big Game James Shields.

6. Sign Jeff Keppinger as utilityman 2B/3B/1B

Phillips 2B (RH)
Fowler CF (SH)
Votto 1B (LH)
Stanton LF (RH)
Bruce RF (LH)
Frazier 3B (RH)
Hanigan C (RH)
Cozart SS (RH)

Rotation
Cueto
Latos
Shields
Bailey
Arroyo

Bullpen
Madson
Broxton
Marshall
Hoover
LeCure
Simon
Arredondo

Bench
Gregorius SS/ 2B
Keppinger 2B/3B/1B
Heisey OF
Paul OF
Navarro C

Billy Hamilton isn't going to be ready this season unless something amazing happens. He may not even be ready next season.

Agreed.

My proposal weakens the overall depth in the organization but strengthens the major league team, especially offense, big time.