Offseason Priorities

[AtomicDumpling]

The closest players I can find to Jack Slugger's and Mickey Slapper's statistical profiles might be interesting:

Player		PA	AB	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Homers	Hits	Walks	HBP	TB	TB+*	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Jack Slugger	600	503	42	25	2	32	101	95	2	226	323	0.201	0.330	0.449	0.779	0.343
Gorman Thomas	619	528	64	24	1	30	119	79	2	235	316	0.225	0.323	0.445	0.768	0.335
Rob Deer	633	544	65	21	2	32	120	81	4	241	326	0.221	0.324	0.443	0.767	0.336

Mickey Slapper	600	574	112	44	6	10	172	24	2	258	284	0.300	0.330	0.449	0.779	0.339
Nick Markakis	703	626	124	41	2	18	185	67	4	284	355	0.296	0.364	0.454	0.818	0.358

Gorman Thomas and Rob Deer are pretty darn good comps for Jack Slugger, although Slugger is better than both of them. They both played in an era when offense was down and fewer runs were scored.

Nick Markakis is quite a bit better than Mickey Slapper (his OBP is 34 points higher) so he is not really a good comp, but I can't find anyone that closely fits Slapper's odd slash line. It seemed like most of the closest matches were from the 1930's and earlier.

I used the comps' 162 game career averages.

[757690]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Not so quick, I'm afraid.

I did a sample player A and Player B.

Player A has a slash line of .300/.330/.450, and in 500 PA, ends up with 21 W, 479 AB's, 97 1B, 32 2B, 5 3B and 10 HR.

Based on your results above, it adds up to 97.98 runs.

Player B has a slash line of .200/.330/.450, and in 500 PA, ends up with 81 W, 419 AB, 40 1B, 11 2B, 5 3B and 28 HR.

It adds up to 102.81 runs.

FWIW

Thanks. Nice work. You are much smarter than I.

However, if I were as smart as you, I could come up with a slash line that would make the slap hitter more effective. My main point is that if guy gets only singles and is able to get the same slash line as a guy with lots of walks and HR's, the singles hitter would be more productive. However, the slash lines wouldn't look like the ones used in this example.

[VR]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

We are discussing this question:

If given the choice between .200/.330/.450 and .300/.330/.450 which player would you choose?

I thought it was about Drew Stubbs?

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by 757690

My main point is that if guy gets only singles and is able to get the same slash line as a guy with lots of walks and HR's, the singles hitter would be more productive. However, the slash lines wouldn't look like the ones used in this example.

Got a better idea? This was just based off the crazy example I used earlier.

[757690]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Got a better idea? This was just based off the crazy example I used earlier.

Nope. Like I said, not smart enough. But it's fun reading this thread

[AtomicDumpling]

Originally Posted by 757690

Thanks. Nice work. You are much smarter than I.

However, if I were as smart as you, I could come up with a slash line that would make the slap hitter more effective. My main point is that if guy gets only singles and is able to get the same slash line as a guy with lots of walks and HR's, the singles hitter would be more productive. However, the slash lines wouldn't look like the ones used in this example.

If you want to suggest a slash line to test I can plug it into my new spreadsheet to make the calculations.

The one that we tested above was a pretty extreme comparison. It compared a strong power hitter vs a strong singles/double hitter and found that they were both equally productive. I think as long as the OBP and SLG portions of the slash line are the same then we will find equal production no matter what the AVGs are. It shouldn't matter what combination of singles, walks and home runs the hitter has either. If the slash line is the same the total production will be the same. I would be happy to test any scenarios you have in mind that might give us a different result.

The lesson we are learning as it pertains to the Reds is this: the Reds need to improve their OBP and SLG without worrying about the AVG. Or in other words, don't sacrifice any of the team's OBP or SLG to improve the AVG.

[AtomicDumpling]

Player		PA	AB	Singles	Doubles	Triples	Homers	Hits	Walks	HBP	TB	TB+	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	RunValue
Jack Slugger	600	503	42	25	2	32	101	95	2	226	323	0.201	0.330	0.449	0.779	0.343	122.32
Mickey Slapper	600	574	112	44	6	10	172	24	2	258	284	0.300	0.330	0.449	0.779	0.339	116.62

I added in a column to calculate the Run Value like 757690 and PuffyPig are doing with their calculations.

Ideally we would calculate the Run Values of all 600 of their plate appearances rather than only the hits and walks like we are doing here. The end result would be a much smaller number once all the outs were factored in.

[gilpdawg]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

*your opinion

I hate when people say that. Of course it's his opinion. Whose else's opinion is he supposed to post?

Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk HD

[mth123]

I think what is being ignored here is KC's original premise that this team needs some diversification of its skillset. Its not necessarily that Mickey Slaphitter is better than Jack Slugger. The problem is that the Reds have a team filled with Jack Sluggers and there isn't a Mickey Slaphitter to be found. I know this, I just watched the Reds leave a small army on base in Games 3, 4 and 5 of the series they lost to the Giants. Two outs and a runner on second, I'd much rather have Mickey Slaphitter up there to get the run home than I would Jack Slugger. Increased ability to get a hit would seem to mean increased ability to get the hit. A walk doesn't do much good in the situation I just sighted. Its simply adds another runner to be left on base. Getting a hit on the other hand....

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by 757690

Thanks. Nice work. You are much smarter than I.

However, if I were as smart as you, I could come up with a slash line that would make the slap hitter more effective.

I don't think you could.

Because in this example where a guy is hitting .200 vs. .300, there really isn't that many different slash lines. And none are going to have that much of a varying result in runs created.

You can vary the number of doubles, HR's etc. a bit, but you really are limited because of the parameters of BA/OBA/OPS being the same.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by mth123

I think what is being ignored here is KC's original premise that this team needs some diversification of its skillset. Its not necessarily that Mickey Slaphitter is better than Jack Slugger. The problem is that the Reds have a team filled with Jack Sluggers and there isn't a Mickey Slaphitter to be found. I know this, I just watched the Reds leave a small army on base in Games 3, 4 and 5 of the series they lost to the Giants. Two outs and a runner on second, I'd much rather have Mickey Slaphitter up there to get the run home than I would Jack Slugger. Increased ability to get a hit would seem to mean increased ability to get the hit. A walk doesn't do much good in the situation I just sighted. Its simply adds another runner to be left on base. Getting a hit on the other hand....

Small sample size. I won't base anything on 3 games. And why ignore the first two games where we scored runs?

The Reds were 12 in OBA this season, and 8th in runs scored.

That tells me that were better at getting our base runners to home than average. Becausee our % on runners scoring was better than our percentage of getting runners on base.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Small sample size. I won't base anything on 3 games. And why ignore the first two games where we scored runs?

It's not really a so much a "small sample size" as it is a microcosm for the Reds in 2012.

They need to get better at getting on base. No one is disputing that bringing in higher OBP guys will lead to better run production. The issue of disconnect is that somehow just mentioning BA (in the context of wanting to get more BA-driven OBP guys) taints the discussion -- which I think is insane.

[mdccclxix]

The good news is, if you're looking to any old stat, offensively, to improve over Stubbs, you'll likely hit the mark. He was the worst offensive CF vs RHP in MLB. The Worst. Heisey wasn't much better. On the other hand, Stubbs was above average vs LHP.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by mth123

I think what is being ignored here is KC's original premise that this team needs some diversification of its skillset. Its not necessarily that Mickey Slaphitter is better than Jack Slugger. The problem is that the Reds have a team filled with Jack Sluggers and there isn't a Mickey Slaphitter to be found. I know this, I just watched the Reds leave a small army on base in Games 3, 4 and 5 of the series they lost to the Giants. Two outs and a runner on second, I'd much rather have Mickey Slaphitter up there to get the run home than I would Jack Slugger. Increased ability to get a hit would seem to mean increased ability to get the hit. A walk doesn't do much good in the situation I just sighted. Its simply adds another runner to be left on base. Getting a hit on the other hand....

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

It's not really a so much a "small sample size" as it is a microcosm for the Reds in 2012.

They need to get better at getting on base. No one is disputing that bringing in higher OBP guys will lead to better run production. The issue of disconnect is that somehow just mentioning BA (in the context of wanting to get more BA-driven OBP guys) taints the discussion -- which I think is insane.

I believe the issue was that the Reds needed more "BA driven guys" as this would lead to more run scoring. That between two players with equal OBA and SL%, the player with the higher BA would lead to more runs.

The last 3 games was not a microcosm of the Reds season. We were getting the baserunners, we just didn't score enough of them. The Reds season was, in fact, the opposite. We didn't get enough baserunners. Of those that did reach base, we were able to score them at a better clip during the season.