Ludwick to decline option

[corkedbat]

If they can re-sign Luddy to a decent contract, I'd also consider adding Kelly Johnson. A LH bat with power. Could fill in at 2B, 3B & LF. He and Didi or Valdez could be your reserve IF's.

[alloverjr]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

So, you moght not have picked up his $5M option, but you'd pay him between $6-9M?

Well, if you're going to respond to my post, and quote a portion of it, at least read it first. So, I guess the answer would be "No".

[alloverjr]

Originally Posted by Brutus

I'd be terribly shocked if the Reds didn't exercise their portion of the option considering it's only $5 million. You could cut Ludwick's production in half and, in theory, he'd still be worth that much.

That said, I think it's too early to assume that declining the option means he won't end up in Cincinnati next season. Jocketty has shown that declined options on either end doesn't preclude a team from hammering out a deal. The market will obviously determine whether the Reds can make a decent offer without assuming too much risk.

Frankly, I would have been shocked as well if it were squarely on Walt's shoulders. I just said that's would I would have done. I personally don't expect Ryan to repeat this year in 2013 and think his expected production could be had for less. Or more to the point, I don't believe his 2012 production could be had without praying to the gods. Gut feel only of course.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by alloverjr

Frankly, I would have been shocked as well if it were squarely on Walt's shoulders. I just said that's would I would have done. I personally don't expect Ryan to repeat this year in 2013 and think his expected production could be had for less. Or more to the point, I don't believe his 2012 production could be had without praying to the gods. Gut feel only of course.

I also don't expect his 2013 season to be as good as 2012. I am still up in the air as to whether I think he'll be worth bringing back, though I think he had a good enough season that it makes sense to take on a small amount of risk in doing so.

NL teams are definitely always fighting a losing battle, though, with guys like this. Ludwick is too prime a DH candidate to beat out for his services at this age.

[AtomicDumpling]

I think Ludwick wants to stay in Cincinnati and I think the Reds want to have him back. I think 2 years and 12-14 million dollars total will get the deal done -- and I think it is a good deal for both sides.

[lollipopcurve]

Ludwick is too prime a DH candidate to beat out for his services at this age.

Some AL teams are moving away from using the DH for just 1 player. And I doubt Ludwick wants to go into that role at this point anyway. Lots of players prefer to keep playing defense. Maybe the Reds will get beat out by an AL team for Ludwick, but I'll surprised if he signs to DH.

[cumberlandreds]

Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling

I think Ludwick wants to stay in Cincinnati and I think the Reds want to have him back. I think 2 years and 12-14 million dollars total will get the deal done -- and I think it is a good deal for both sides.

I agree wit this. Ludwick knows he has to play in a small ballpark like GABP. He's comfortable here since its his home area. I believe in the end he will sign a contract with a hometown discount.

[edabbs44]

The one part of the equation that we fail to understand is what the alternatives are. Is there a sense in the FO of who is available to replace Ludwick if he does walk? The money being discussed here does not sound completely prohibitive so, if accurate, it comes down to the alternatives.

[Steve4192]

Let him leave.

I appreciate what Ludwick did for the Reds this year, but the reality is that the guy hasn't ever strung together multiple quality seasons as a full-time player. This season was an extreme outlier versus his career performance. He is far more likely to post a sub-800 OPS next year than he is to repeat his 2012 performance. The Reds should thank him for his contributions, wish him the best, and let someone else pay for the decline in production that is sure to come in the future.

[Redhook]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

Let him leave.

I appreciate what Ludwick did for the Reds this year, but the reality is that the guy hasn't ever strung together multiple quality seasons as a full-time player. This season was an extreme outlier versus his career performance. He is far more likely to post a sub-800 OPS next year than he is to repeat his 2012 performance. The Reds should thank him for his contributions, wish him the best, and let someone else pay for the decline in production that is sure to come in the future.

I agree.

And, I agree with others who believe he'll be difficult to replace; however, I'd rather the Reds pay someone they think will be productive in 2013, not pay someone for what they did in 2012. I think the Reds would be foolish to believe Ludwick will duplicate this season. Any multi-year deal would most likely be an overpayment for the production he'd give. I like Ludwick and greatly appreciate his season, but I think it's best for the Reds to pass on re-signing him.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

The one part of the equation that we fail to understand is what the alternatives are. Is there a sense in the FO of who is available to replace Ludwick if he does walk? The money being discussed here does not sound completely prohibitive so, if accurate, it comes down to the alternatives.

There are loads of alternatives out there. One alternative is already in-house. It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to see Todd Frazier in LF every day, assuming the Reds can find another corner utilityman to cover the inevitable injuries that will crop up in 2013. I'd rather see the Reds sign/trade for a LF masher and keep Frazier in his current role, but as contingency plans go, you could do a lot worse than Frazier in LF.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

That's cool.

Now I'm the Indians GM. I've got a few other teams inquiring on Choo. Put your best offer on the table.

I get your point, but I'll leave the armchair gm'ing to the posters here who know the Indians franchise/needs better than me. I know what players I'm willing to part with, but without knowing what the Indians are really looking for (especially the status of their farm system) I'd be shooting in the dark.

My point was that with the Indians collapsing this year I have a feeling they'd be open to offers of most players. Maybe Choo's untouchable in their opinion, in which case my suggestion is moot.

So....anybody know what the Tribe is looking for?

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

I get your point, but I'll leave the armchair gm'ing to the posters here who know the Indians franchise/needs better than me. I know what players I'm willing to part with, but without knowing what the Indians are really looking for (especially the status of their farm system) I'd be shooting in the dark.

My point was that with the Indians collapsing this year I have a feeling they'd be open to offers of most players. Maybe Choo's untouchable in their opinion, in which case my suggestion is moot.

So....anybody know what the Tribe is looking for?

They would need a replacement for Choo, for one. I think they are ok with Chisenhall at 3b, Cabrera at SS, Kipnis at 2b, Santana at C, and Brantley in CF. That leaves LF, 1b, and pitching, and RF. Personally, I'd like Brantley the most. A few years of team control, good OBP in CF...Bailey and Stubbs for Brantley would be my first guess.

[kbrake]

I would also be interested in Brantley but if Bailey is part of the cost I would begin to shop at a different store.

[lollipopcurve]

but if Bailey is part of the cost I would begin to shop at a different store.

Definitely. That would be the Chase Headley or Justin Upton store.