Ludwick to decline option

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

There are loads of alternatives out there. One alternative is already in-house. It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to see Todd Frazier in LF every day, assuming the Reds can find another corner utilityman to cover the inevitable injuries that will crop up in 2013. I'd rather see the Reds sign/trade for a LF masher and keep Frazier in his current role, but as contingency plans go, you could do a lot worse than Frazier in LF.

Who is playing 3rd?

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Who is playing 3rd?

A-Rod. See the other thread.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

Forget Choo, get Cabrera.

Yea, that would be a great trade.. Wonder if the tribe would take Cozart +prospects for Caberra? Although a downside is that Cabera is owed an average of 7 million/year.. Might not be able to fit that in the budget, esp if we are looking to find two OFers..

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by Kc61

A-Rod. See the other thread.

Oh, then I am totally down with that.

[cincrazy]

I love Ludwick. But he caught lightning in a bottle this year. I don't think it's likely he repeats that performance. I wish him luck, and move in another direction.

[Tadasimha]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Yea, that would be a great trade.. Wonder if the tribe would take Cozart +prospects for Caberra? Although a downside is that Cabera is owed an average of 7 million/year.. Might not be able to fit that in the budget, esp if we are looking to find two OFers..

6.5 mill in 2013 and 10 mill in 2014. He's a definite upgrade over Cozart at SS with the bat (defensively they're probably pretty even) but that wouldn't leave a lot of cash for LF/CF and/or 3B (if Frazier goes to LF).

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

Asking Ludwick to fill the shoes of an 877 OPS worries me even more, because unlike Heisey, Ludwick's paycheck is going to eat up a good sized chunk of the payroll budget.

Prior to his career resurgence in 2012, Ludwick's stat line from 2009 through 2011 was a meager 251/321/409/731. There are plenty of options out there that can give the Reds a mid-700s OPS at relatively little cost in terms of cash or talent surrendered. Hell, Todd Frazier can likely do that with without the Reds having to make any moves at all. There are also plenty of options who can give the Reds much better production if they are willing to give up something of value in return.

Ludwick is a 'boom or bust' player. We just witnessed the 'boom'. I'd rather not watch the 'bust' happen in a Red's uniform.

Ludwick's numbers really look about the same across the board except for the spike in power. Take away the lost years in Petco and he might've been doing this all along. There's probably some aging for the next two or three years, but he's in good shape and doesn't play a demanding position. It's not my favorite contract, especially if he wants three years, but mid .700's OPS out of left next year is gonna be a big hit to the offense.

[FlightRick]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I think you are WAY overstating park effects in regards to both his struggles and his success. Of his 1466 ABs from 2009-2011, only 303 came at Petco. Nearly two-thirds of those ABs (188) came in 2011 when he OPSed 658 at Petco and 673 overall. Hardly a monumental difference.

The same goes for the influence of the GABP on his numbers in 2012. Sure, he was better at home, but only marginally so. He posted an 896 OPS at home this year and 856 OPS on the road. He had a good year. The park helped, but it was just icing on the cake. It didn't cause his great year in 2012, just like it won't prevent a return to normalcy in 2013.

In so far as those numbers go, you're right: Ludwick has been roughly the same hitter at home as on the road the past 3 years. But -- and I do not intend to speak for the original poster -- there can be a lot more to the effect of a park than just home/away splits.

And in the specific case of Ryan Ludwick, he's laid claim to those different factors. His story, as related in numerous interviews in late May and early June, is that he adopted a lot of bad habits trying to hit at Petco. He tailored his swing to the park, and that followed him on the road. One month playing Pittsburgh at the end of 2011 wasn't enough time to fix anything. It was only after starting to get regular playing time with the Reds that he kicked all those bad habits, and went back to his old approach. And voila: his numbers went back to their old selves, too.

Now, I'm not even close to being an eagle-eyed enough swing doctor to know if he's telling the truth, or just tossing out some malarkey to try to explain away the crazy ups and downs of baseball... but as far as anecdotal evidence goes, it DOES seem to fit the facts.

Ludwick's first 3 years in STL as a regular averaged out to .280/.350/.510 (.860 OPS)... his first half of 2010 (still in STL) was .281/.343/.484 (.827 OPS), which is roughly in line with his career up to that point, minus a bit of power (which could just have been a figment of the small sample size in 300 AB). Everything was still dandy when he got traded to SD.

Then a full season in Petco, plus about 40 games after being traded to PIT, all while picking up all kinds of bad habits, resulted in roughly a .230/.310/.330 (.640 OPS) line.

Head to Cincinnati, finally get the swing fixed up, and over the course of the season, he puts up .275/.345/.530 (.875 OPS), which looks strangely familiar. Ludwick just may have a bona fide justification for his fluctuations over time.

I don't have any foolish notions that Ludwick will ever be the hitter his was in June/July/August this past year, especially not at 33 or 34 or whatever. But I think it is perfectly realistic that he could put up another season or two of overall numbers in that neighborhood.

That said, I'd probably have reservations about any new deal that includes a guaranteed third year, or an annual average value much more than $7-8m. Age is not on Ludwick's side, and the way the Reds have been handing out the cash the past two off-seasons and the presumed payroll limitations, this could quickly turn into exactly the kind of mistake the Reds can't afford to make...


Rick

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by FlightRick

Head to Cincinnati, finally get the swing fixed up, and over the course of the season, he puts up .275/.345/.530 (.875 OPS), which looks strangely familiar. Ludwick just may have a bona fide justification for his fluctuations over time.

I don't have any foolish notions that Ludwick will ever be the hitter his was in June/July/August this past year, especially not at 33 or 34 or whatever. But I think it is perfectly realistic that he could put up another season or two of overall numbers in that neighborhood.

That said, I'd probably have reservations about any new deal that includes a guaranteed third year, or an annual average value much more than $7-8m. Age is not on Ludwick's side, and the way the Reds have been handing out the cash the past two off-seasons and the presumed payroll limitations, this could quickly turn into exactly the kind of mistake the Reds can't afford to make...

Aging and diminishing skills will likely come into play with this contract, but the question is what skill level is Ludwick starting at. As you pointed out, I think a strong case could be made that last year wasn't a fluke and we're looking at a current .850+ OPS bat. I'd go hard after a two year contract and see if he bites. Finding that production elsewhere is gonna be a real challenge IMO.

[DGullett35]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Yea, that would be a great trade.. Wonder if the tribe would take Cozart +prospects for Caberra? Although a downside is that Cabera is owed an average of 7 million/year.. Might not be able to fit that in the budget, esp if we are looking to find two OFers..

Id pass on Cabrera. All the Cleveland press does is complain about how unmotivated he is and how how overweight he comes into spring training every year. The guy commits alot of errors and is a notoriously horrid 2nd half player. The last 2 years hes raked the first half and tanked the 2nd. Cozart is a much better option IMO.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by DGullett35

Id pass on Cabrera. All the Cleveland press does is complain about how unmotivated he is and how how overweight he comes into spring training every year. The guy commits alot of errors and is a notoriously horrid 2nd half player. The last 2 years hes raked the first half and tanked the 2nd. Cozart is a much better option IMO.

I'd also pass on Cabrera...but just to play devil's advocate for a minute, they said very similar things about Brandon Phillips while he was at the mistake by the lake. Just sayin'.

[lollipopcurve]

they said very similar things about Brandon Phillips while he was at the mistake by the lake. Just sayin'.

Lot more tread on Cabrera's tires. Phillips was still young and unproven.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I have no doubt Lud will re-sign with the Reds for two years and somewhere around $13-14 million total. ($6.5 or $7 million per season.)

If he can get more elsewhere, good for him. He was a huge piece of the puzzle this year and I want him back, but the Reds can't (and won't) overpay for him.

I bet it all works out though. He seems to like Cincinnati, they like him, he probably won't get a better offer ... add it all up and I'd say the odds are definitely in favor of Ludwick remaining a Red.

[GAC]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

I have no doubt Lud will re-sign with the Reds for two years and somewhere around $13-14 million total. ($6.5 or $7 million per season.)

Sounds like a reasonable offer. Other then that - let him walk. There are other "Ludwicks" out there in the market. We found him.

[Raisor]

I wouldn't give two years guaranteed for him. Another year with a team option. Someone give him more, let him go.