BA's International League top 20 prospects

[M2]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I don't know, to me he just kind of reeks of Gookieness. Or Olmedoma. Or Pokey Fever.

Personally, I put Hamilton, Stephenson, and Cingrani far ahead of him in the interesting rankings. Corcino is also a better prospect (but maybe not as interesting).

What makes Gregorius interesting is he's gone from the fringe to possible major leaguer. You might be right that AAAA is his ceiling, but what if he's a modern Pokey? Pokey had a career. Still the best defensive 2B I've ever seen. A guy like that has his uses.

Interesting is inherently subjective. Hamilton setting the all-time single-season SB is pretty interesting. Stephenson's blue chip arm is pretty interesting. Cingrani's dominance is pretty interesting. Jesse Winker's pretty damn fascinating too.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by M2

What makes Gregorius interesting is he's gone from the fringe to possible major leaguer.

Why do you feel different about him after this season? He had a decent year, but it was pretty much in line with what I would've expected.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Why do you feel different about him after this season? He had a decent year, but it was pretty much in line with what I would've expected.

I am not speaking for him here, but I think that taking the jump to AA and then AAA and then the Majors (Even in a small sample size) takes things forward a bit. It makes him more enticing that he not only kept his status, but actually improved it while facing strong competition. Same thing for a guy like Billy Hamilton or Bryson Smith. Some guys weren't able to do that just yet (Donald Lutz and David Vidal for example, both struggled with making that next step up in competition).

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am not speaking for him here, but I think that taking the jump to AA and then AAA and then the Majors (Even in a small sample size) takes things forward a bit. It makes him more enticing that he not only kept his status, but actually improved it while facing strong competition. Same thing for a guy like Billy Hamilton or Bryson Smith. Some guys weren't able to do that just yet (Donald Lutz and David Vidal for example, both struggled with making that next step up in competition).

Did you watch him in Louisville? He's never put up power numbers like that outside of that high school sized park in Bakersfield. Could this be a sign he's finally tapping into some of that power you've talked about or just a case of him running into a few more hangers than usual? Lack of in game power is about the only thing holding him back IMO.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Did you watch him in Louisville? He's never put up power numbers like that outside of that high school sized park in Bakersfield. Could this be a sign he's finally tapping into some of that power you've talked about or just a case of him running into a few more hangers than usual? Lack of in game power is about the only thing holding him back IMO.

He can use the power when he wants to. It is in there. He has even noted himself that while he was in Pensacola he was merely trying to be a singles hitter and that when he went to Louisville, he tried to hit for more power. I don't think we are going to see him go out and hit 20 home runs or anything, but he is a 10-15 HR guy if he wants to be. He has the bat speed and swing to make that happen.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

He can use the power when he wants to. It is in there. He has even noted himself that while he was in Pensacola he was merely trying to be a singles hitter and that when he went to Louisville, he tried to hit for more power. I don't think we are going to see him go out and hit 20 home runs or anything, but he is a 10-15 HR guy if he wants to be. He has the bat speed and swing to make that happen.

Cool I was wondering if he had said anything about it. If Gregorius can add fifteen homers without compromising his other skills at the plate, his profile starts to look a lot like Brandon Phillips with a touch less power. I'll take that from a great defensive shortstop.

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

He can use the power when he wants to. It is in there. He has even noted himself that while he was in Pensacola he was merely trying to be a singles hitter and that when he went to Louisville, he tried to hit for more power. I don't think we are going to see him go out and hit 20 home runs or anything, but he is a 10-15 HR guy if he wants to be. He has the bat speed and swing to make that happen.

Doug if he puts up a .270 avg. 10 to 15 homers, when do we see him in Cincinnati?

[Scrap Irony]

There is no way-- none-- the current incarnation of DiDi Gregorius puts up 15 home runs in the major leagues. He'd have to make a GIANT leap in order to hit double figures. If everything goes perfectly and he sells out his normal swing for all the power he can muster (plus he develops muscle and takes some serious "medication"), his ceiling is 15 homers. At best.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

There is no way-- none-- the current incarnation of DiDi Gregorius puts up 15 home runs in the major leagues. He'd have to make a GIANT leap in order to hit double figures. If everything goes perfectly and he sells out his normal swing for all the power he can muster (plus he develops muscle and takes some serious "medication"), his ceiling is 15 homers. At best.

So a guy who hit 6 home runs in 185 AAA at bats has to sell out his normal swing, develop muscle and take PED's to get to 15 home runs in the Majors, at best? The guy is 22 years old. He is also a guy who unlike most guys, has two entirely different swings that he works with depending on the count. At least for now.

http://www.milb.com/search/media.jsp...hitsPerSite=10

Go there. Watch his videos. Look at the swing. Look at the bat speed. He isn't a real strong guy, but the other things are there for him. He is going to hit for a little bit of power in the future.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Why do you feel different about him after this season? He had a decent year, but it was pretty much in line with what I would've expected.

A big part of it is that AA loomed as a potential cliff for Gregorius. It's a level where a lot players who are just good enough in A ball get exposed. Instead he managed to play well in AA (and at a relatively young age for the circuit).

Another part is outside evaluators are starting to give Gregorius some mention as being a legitimate prospect. He's making league top 20 lists for the first time in his career. He's turning some heads.

One thing that frustrates me about him is his low SB totals. It's rare to see a player with triples speed be such a poor base stealer. I've got to believe that could be cured with some instruction and a little offseason work.

The thing I'll be looking for from Gregorius next season is his doubles totals. That will probably be the best indicator, outside of his OB, that he's making progress with his bat.

And count me as one in favor of platooning at any position, even SS. If Gregorius hits RHPs better than Cozart and Cozart hits LHPs better than Gregorius, then let them share the position. The other one gives you IF depth off the bench (e.g. defensive replacement for Frazier at 3B), meaning you don't have to carry a Wilson Valdez. Gregorius needs to play well in AAA before this becomes an issue, but I'm not seeing a downside in boosting the offense and depth at SS.

[dougdirt]

To be fair M2, Gregorius was the #18 prospect in 2009 for the Pioneer League.

[M2]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

To be fair M2, Gregorius was the #18 prospect in 2009 for the Pioneer League.

Good point, though he went below the radar for 2010 and 2011. I suspect A ball managers were reluctant to project his bat.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

So a guy who hit 6 home runs in 185 AAA at bats has to sell out his normal swing, develop muscle and take PED's to get to 15 home runs in the Majors, at best?

Yep.

Gregorius is a decent stop-gap defensive SS. He might end up with an OPS north of 700 for his career. Maybe.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'll take it like a man and admit it.

As of now, I see little power in DiDi Gregorius' swing as he develops into a major league SS. A slash line of 260/ 310/ 400 would fit his minor league profile. Actually, it would improve it. By a far margin.

I like his youth. Perhaps he grows up a bit, fills out a bit, and lifts weights. Maybe he transforms his swing and adds some pop that way. Maybe he figures out which pitches to swing at and which to lay off. But his 39 extra base hits is one more than Billy Hamilton, and I've been told Hamilton has "20" power. So he'd have to find a ton of power to ever sniff 15 major league HR in one season.

[fearofpopvol1]

I simply don't see 15 home runs from didi. I mean, maybe if he's really really lucky 1 season, but I don't see that with any regularity. I do like him, but I'm still uncertain about the bat and definitely the power. Next year will be a big one for him.

I'm curious to see what Cozart does next year. Even though his OBP wasn't impressive, he showed great leather and very solid power for a SS. If he can get on base a little more and maybe add just a little more power, look out.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I'm curious to see what Cozart does next year. Even though his OBP wasn't impressive, he showed great leather and very solid power for a SS. If he can get on base a little more and maybe add just a little more power, look out.

Batting Cozart 8th would help his obp quite a bit. Assume improvement and you could see him with a line of .265/.340/.445 at his peak. But it's not his ceiling that's interesting; it's his floor. He's a pretty solid bet to hit somewhere between 15 - 20 HR over a full season.

Gregorius would have to find 50 more points of slugging to get near him. That's a tall order. (Though, to be fair, the guy is only 22.)