Shohei Otani, 18, wants MLB career

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by cincinnati chili

For the most part, it will be no different than the limits put on Taiwanese signees or Dominican signees. I'm not sure MLB will be all that bent out of shape about it. Not sure what's so precious about MLB's relationship with the Japanese leagues.

I suppose the Japanese league could not make their players available for posting anymore. They could refuse to take Bobby Valentine back. I may be totally wrong but I really could see the Japanese league raise a fuss over this.

MLB doesn't want its teams interfering with guys under contract but this guy isn't under contract. I think MLB would balk if the guy wasn't 18 yet. That's the big double standard: MLB teams can go hoodwink Latin American players (other than PUerto Rico) without any agent representation as young as 16. MLB would have a cow if they did that in Japan or any country outside the developing world.

You're absolutely right.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by Chip R

I suppose the Japanese league could not make their players available for posting anymore. They could refuse to take Bobby Valentine back. I may be totally wrong but I really could see the Japanese league raise a fuss over this.



You're absolutely right.

MLB might see that as a good investment to make though. Lose the present wave of current Nippon players, but gain the entire careers of future stars who decide to take this path as well. What if Ichiro had played his whole career here?

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Chip R

I suppose the Japanese league could not make their players available for posting anymore. They could refuse to take Bobby Valentine back. I may be totally wrong but I really could see the Japanese league raise a fuss over this.
.

Well if Japan stops the posting system, then all their high end talent will bypass the Japeneese league.. They will sign with American clubs, and then possibly come back home after they've washed out of MLB..

The posting system is very profitable for Japaneese clubs.. I doubt they would ever get rid of it.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Well if Japan stops the posting system, then all their high end talent will bypass the Japeneese league.. They will sign with American clubs, and then possibly come back home after they've washed out of MLB..

The posting system is very profitable for Japaneese clubs.. I doubt they would ever get rid of it.

Not necessarily. Sure, they could come over here and sign as a free agent but they would be in the same boat with all the other amateurs. They would have to start off in rookie ball and work their way up. There's no guarantee of success. Plus they would have to play without the support system that major league teams have for their Japanese players. If they do wash out and come home, they may be blackballed and not able to play again.

It is profitable but this may not be a question of dollars and yen. It may be a question of honor.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by Chip R

I could see MLB telling their teams to pass on this kid so as to not upset their relations with the Japanese league.

If there was a way (short of inventing the USS Enterprise's transporter system) to get a professional team in Japan, MLB would have no problem telling the Japanese league to pound salt.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Chip R

Not necessarily. Sure, they could come over here and sign as a free agent but they would be in the same boat with all the other amateurs. They would have to start off in rookie ball and work their way up. There's no guarantee of success. Plus they would have to play without the support system that major league teams have for their Japanese players. If they do wash out and come home, they may be blackballed and not able to play again.

It is profitable but this may not be a question of dollars and yen. It may be a question of honor.

It's hard to predict what would happen, but you have to remember that every 16-18 year old kid that has "First round talent" is going to assume he's going to make it to the big leauges. That's just human nature. The big bucks and fame are in the USA.. Japan is a glorified AAAA league and the Japaneese players know it. IMO, Shohei is probably the first of a wave of kids that are going to completely skip the Japaneese minor league system.

I think the support system is somewhat overrated.. Japan is not that much different than America.. Millions of Asians from developed nations like Japan come over here (immigration or H1 visas) and adjust pretty seamlessly.

[Tadasimha]

Pound salt?

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by Tadasimha

Pound salt?

We're on the same page on that one.

[Wonderful Monds]

In case Doug pokes back in here, what amount of the yearly allocated budget have we spent and what might we have available for this guy?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

In case Doug pokes back in here, what amount of the yearly allocated budget have we spent and what might we have available for this guy?

Don't have a clue. 90% of signings generally go unreported to the fans. You figure that each team probably signs 10-20 guys a year. So let's just round it to 15. 15 guys for 30 teams is 450 players. We generally know about the signings of maybe 50 of them.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Don't have a clue. 90% of signings generally go unreported to the fans. You figure that each team probably signs 10-20 guys a year. So let's just round it to 15. 15 guys for 30 teams is 450 players. We generally know about the signings of maybe 50 of them.

That's weird. Do a good number of them not get assigned to rosters or something, for some reason?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

That's weird. Do a good number of them not get assigned to rosters or something, for some reason?

Well, most of the guys signed will never even make it to the United States. They will play a year or three in the Dominican or Venezuelan Summer Leagues and never get called stateside and then be released. The signing period doesn't start until July 2nd, and even then, not everyone is eligible to sign right away. So most of the guys who do sign in a given signing period, don't even play that first year that they sign because by the time they get signed and all of the paperwork is done, the foreign season leagues are finished. So most of them begin their career, 8-10 months after they have signed and are playing in the Dominican or in Venezuela. Baseball America and the likes generally only talk about the guys who are signing the real bonuses, $300,000 and higher. There aren't many of those guys, so those 30-50 guys get talked about and the rest are generally found out for the first time when each team starts releasing their media guides the next year and nerds like me go through and find out who signed during the previous signing period but didn't get a chance to play yet.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Well, most of the guys signed will never even make it to the United States. They will play a year or three in the Dominican or Venezuelan Summer Leagues and never get called stateside and then be released. The signing period doesn't start until July 2nd, and even then, not everyone is eligible to sign right away. So most of the guys who do sign in a given signing period, don't even play that first year that they sign because by the time they get signed and all of the paperwork is done, the foreign season leagues are finished. So most of them begin their career, 8-10 months after they have signed and are playing in the Dominican or in Venezuela. Baseball America and the likes generally only talk about the guys who are signing the real bonuses, $300,000 and higher. There aren't many of those guys, so those 30-50 guys get talked about and the rest are generally found out for the first time when each team starts releasing their media guides the next year and nerds like me go through and find out who signed during the previous signing period but didn't get a chance to play yet.

Right on. The difference between all the teams organizations have below, like, Low-A has always been really murky to me.

[cincinnati chili]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

If there was a way (short of inventing the USS Enterprise's transporter system) to get a professional team in Japan, MLB would have no problem telling the Japanese league to pound salt.

I've brought it up on this board before. Tokyo is a huge market and it would be doable. The way you'd do it is by letting the Tokyo team rotate one month at home and one month on the road. Visiting teams would come in for 6 or 7 game serieses. Cash. cow.

They don't need the starship enterprise. Maybe buying one of the old Concord supersonic jets would be a good investment though.

[cincinnati chili]

Originally Posted by Chip R

I suppose the Japanese league could not make their players available for posting anymore.

If this became an epidemic, one thing the Japanese league might consider doing is letting its players become free agents after 6 years of service rather than 10.