Jacoby Ellsbury

[M2]

My guess is the Red Sox will spend a big chunk of their newfound PayFlex on Ellsbury and that they suffer severe buyer's remorse at some point in the not-too-distant future. Ellsbury has never been able to sustain success in his career. I wouldn't want to be the team that paid him for a lot of years or that moved a lot of talent to get him.

If he's on the market, I'd let teams fight over him and Josh Hamilton and go after other options.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by M2

My guess is the Red Sox will spend a big chunk of their newfound PayFlex on Ellsbury and that they suffer severe buyer's remorse at some point in the not-too-distant future. Ellsbury has never been able to sustain success in his career. I wouldn't want to be the team that paid him for a lot of years or that moved a lot of talent to get him.

If he's on the market, I'd let teams fight over him and Josh Hamilton and go after other options.

Do you think they can contend next year?

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by M2

My guess is the Red Sox will spend a big chunk of their newfound PayFlex on Ellsbury and that they suffer severe buyer's remorse at some point in the not-too-distant future. Ellsbury has never been able to sustain success in his career. I wouldn't want to be the team that paid him for a lot of years or that moved a lot of talent to get him.

If he's on the market, I'd let teams fight over him and Josh Hamilton and go after other options.

Agree on Ellsbury as a FA. However I'd pay the price mentioned for him as a one year rental.

[M2]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Do you think they can contend next year?

The Red Sox?

I'm not sure. It would take huge rebounds from Lester and Buchholz. Add in a step forward for Doubront and a new SP from somewhere else. Then remake the bullpen (possibly with Daniel Bard making a return and Andrew Bailey bouncing back). Then sort out the lineup with Ellsbury coming back strong, a new 1B, a new SS and at least one new OF corner. If all of that happens that team could contend.

The upside for Boston is it has cash. It can buy a lot of talent on the open market, though we saw with the Marlins this year that spending does not equate to winning.

If the core is rotten then it doesn't matter what they add. And if they don't add the right pieces then it doesn't matter if the core rebounds. Basically, a lot can go wrong with the Sox.

[mdccclxix]

Yeah, they seem to be still in toppling mode. I'm not sure if I'd rather be the Cubs or Red Sox right now. At least the Cubs are a year ahead in the rebuilding process.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

Yeah, they seem to be still in toppling mode. I'm not sure if I'd rather be the Cubs or Red Sox right now. At least the Cubs are a year ahead in the rebuilding process.

I'd rather be the Cubs.

Theo > Cherington and I'm not a big Theo fan.
A year ahead in the rebuilding process.
Some key pieces locked up for the long term. (Castro, Rizzo, Smardzjia)
Less spoiled fan base.
Nowhere to go but up.

By comparison, the Sox basically have had nowhere to go but down.

[marcshoe]

I hate to say it, but the Cubs have more of an idea what they're doing now. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a legitimate shot at a World Series in the next decade.

As for Ellsbury, I don't know what direction the Reds will go, but I'm betting they add some offense somewhere. In truth, they need to add a consistent hitter to the lineup as much as they need a leadoff guy. This team's entered new territory now. Look for them to start (or continue) making moves like a contender.

[Spitball]

The Ellsbury injuries, Scott Boros, the Sox having a center fielder (Jackie Bradley) as a top prospect, the Carl Crawford experience, and the need for pitching create a dilemma for Ben Cherington and the Reds Sox.

The Sox don't need one year of Ellsbury. They are unlikely to rebuild and recover enough to contend in the AL East next season. They don't need to gamble a big long term contract on a player who has a history of injuries. Crawford, Lackey, and Matsuzaka should show them that.

They have Jackie Bradley coming and need to get something for Ellsbury...but they probably won't due to injuries and Boras.

Unless Cherington totally drops the ball and offers Ellsbury at pennies on the dollar, the Reds should probably stay clear of the Ellsbury uncertainty.

[Spitball]

Also, I would not be surprised to see the Red Sox hold onto Ellsbury until the trade deadline. Right now his trade value is down, and the Sox will want to show their fans they intend to be competitive.

[blumj]

Originally Posted by Spitball

Also, I would not be surprised to see the Red Sox hold onto Ellsbury until the trade deadline. Right now his trade value is down, and the Sox will want to show their fans they intend to be competitive.

This, I really think they're more likely to try to trade for other teams' 1 year left of fairly expensive contract types, unless they get an offer that's too good to pass up. The last thing they want to do is sign free agents to huge long term contracts, but there's a big gulf between their current payroll obligations and their expected budget.