2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

[Scrap Irony]

My favorite all-time NFL story (though it involves the Steelers and may be aprochyphal):

Jack Lambert, in a pre-season contest with the Cardinals, got his finger stuck between a helmet-to-helmet lick. The finger was a mass of broken and bleeding cartilidge; the bones hadn't just been broken, but pulverized. Half his pinkie was hanging by skin.

He came to the sideline so the trainer could look at it. When told he'd have to come out, Smilin' Jack told the trainer to go ahead and cut it off-- he had nine more.

[JaxRed]

Went to todays game. The more I see of Billy in CF the better I feel, Billy also went deep today. A real HR out of the park, Halfway up the berm.

[lollipopcurve]

A real HR out of the park, Halfway up the berm.

Hit it righty. I think he's got a little more juice on his natural side.

Good to hear he's looking good in center.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Hit it righty. I think he's got a little more juice on his natural side.

Good to hear he's looking good in center.

Without question he has more from the right side. More bat speed, better swing plane, better balance.

[RedTruck]

Power wise how is he projected?

Say he's a Red in 2015, and in the next 2.5 years he bulks up (at a reasonable and expected rate) how many home runs do you reckon he will hit on average?

Ryan Hanigan numbers? 1-3?

More?

I'd like him to have a little pop, and I'm sure GABP can supply that.

Hopefully expecting 5-10 won't be to unreasonable from him.

[camisadelgolf]

In theory, it's kind of up to him. Bulking up would slow him down, so the preference might be that he never develops 5-10 home run power.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by RedTruck

Power wise how is he projected?

Say he's a Red in 2015, and in the next 2.5 years he bulks up (at a reasonable and expected rate) how many home runs do you reckon he will hit on average?

Ryan Hanigan numbers? 1-3?

More?

I'd like him to have a little pop, and I'm sure GABP can supply that.

Hopefully expecting 5-10 won't be to unreasonable from him.

I don't care if Billy Hamilton ever hits a HR in the majors.

Even if he hits a few over the wall, it's going to be so rare that it is almost inconsequential. I'm much more interested in whether he can consistently put enough stank on the ball to rack up 40 or 50 extra base hits per year. I don't give a damn if none of them go over the wall. 30 doubles, 10 triples and 0 HR in conjunction with a 350 OBP would be just fine with me.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

In theory, it's kind of up to him. Bulking up would slow him down, so the preference might be that he never develops 5-10 home run power.

I don't buy that bulking up would slow him down. Have you ever seen what Olympic sprinters are built like? Those guys are jacked. As long as Billy made sure to concentrate on his lower body rather than his beach muscles, he could stand to gain a lot of size without getting so large that it would impact his speed.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I don't buy that bulking up would slow him down. Have you ever seen what Olympic sprinters are built like? Those guys are jacked. As long as Billy made sure to concentrate on his lower body rather than his beach muscles, he could stand to gain a lot of size without getting so large that it would impact his speed.

I can't imagine a little muscle slowing him down either. He still looks rail thin to me.

I think Hamilton will be a freak in center and provide plenty of value on the bases, but I'm still struggling to see him profiling as a consistently competent hitter. Without any home run power and average at best contact skills, he looks so much like, dare I say, Willy Taveras. Is his speed enough to separate him from the most scorned player in RedsZone history?

[ucnum1]

His speed seperates him from everybody....Ive seen Deion Sanders and Eric Davis in thier prime...Hamilton is faster imo...He is also a better than average contact hitter from what I saw in Pensacola and yes he is a much better hitter from the right side of the plate...Id say a .260=.275 major league BA line will be his norm.

[dougdirt]

Hamilton might hit 5 home runs in a season in his best year of his career. I would be more concerned with his 18% strikeout rate than his power though.

[Scrap Irony]

He's trending in the right direction. His BB rate has blossomed. His hit tool has improved (by almost all scouting takes as well). His K rate is a little high, but has shown real improvement even while he's moving up levels. In AA, for example, he earned almost a BB for every K. A hitter like Hamilton, who's willing to work counts late in an AB, will K. That's the nature of the beast. However, his BB rate will (hopefully) keep his obp high enough (@ 350 or better) to make him a better than average starting CF most years and a difference-maker when he's BaBIP-lucky.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

He's trending in the right direction. His BB rate has blossomed. His hit tool has improved (by almost all scouting takes as well). His K rate is a little high, but has shown real improvement even while he's moving up levels. In AA, for example, he earned almost a BB for every K. A hitter like Hamilton, who's willing to work counts late in an AB, will K. That's the nature of the beast. However, his BB rate will (hopefully) keep his obp high enough (@ 350 or better) to make him a better than average starting CF most years and a difference-maker when he's BaBIP-lucky.

Yeah, I am so much more a believer in Hamilton today than I was at the same point last year that it isn't funny. I still do question his bat some, because I simply don't trust absolute no home run power guys until they actually do it in the Majors, but Hamilton has come a long way in a short period of time. Better balance (particularly from the left side), more patience and a seemingly much better overall approach at the plate.

[JayBruceFan]

Travis Mattair was added to the AFL roster

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

In AA, for example, he earned almost a BB for every K. A hitter like Hamilton, who's willing to work counts late in an AB, will K. That's the nature of the beast. However, his BB rate will (hopefully) keep his obp high enough (@ 350 or better) to make him a better than average starting CF most years and a difference-maker when he's BaBIP-lucky.

Is there a precedent of any hitter with Hamilton's skill set walking a lot? I can't imagine the strategy against him at the big league level being anything other than, "throw strikes, throw strikes, and throw more strikes." I'm thoroughly intrigued by Billy Hamilton, but his numbers so far are practically interchangeable with other speed flops like Taveras and Gathright at similar points in their career.