Trade/Sell High on Homer?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

Chapman isn't under 23 anymore. The 30 inning rule doesn't really apply. He could go 150 in 2013 and I'd say he could push to 200 in 2014. The real issue is, moving Chapman into the rotation means they almost have to bring back Broxton for $6 Million plus. If they do that, I would not deal Bailey and not even Leake. I'd make Leake the 6th starter behind Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo and Chapman with Broxton or some one similar closing and Marshall, Lecure, Hoover, Simon and another lefty filling out the staff. Maybe that lefty is Bray, but I'd go ahead and use Cingrani. I'd deal off Arredondo and non-tender Bray and Ondrusek with Masset as a wild card based on health. That's a pretty decent staff and the conditions with a closer and an alternate starter on hand would be right for giving Chapman a try as a starter, but the money needed for Broxton probably precludes signing Ludwick or upgrading CF. The best I could see happening would be bringing Rolen back on the cheap and getting a cheap guy to share the job (Wilson Betemit is my choice) with Frazier being the primary LF. CF would start out with another season of suffering with Stubbs and Heisey and hoping Billy Hamilton is ready sooner rather than later.

the 30+ rule is generally applied to players under 26.

[757690]

Originally Posted by mth123

Chapman isn't under 23 anymore. The 30 inning rule doesn't really apply. He could go 150 in 2013 and I'd say he could push to 200 in 2014. The real issue is, moving Chapman into the rotation means they almost have to bring back Broxton for $6 Million plus. If they do that, I would not deal Bailey and not even Leake. I'd make Leake the 6th starter behind Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo and Chapman with Broxton or some one similar closing and Marshall, Lecure, Hoover, Simon and another lefty filling out the staff. Maybe that lefty is Bray, but I'd go ahead and use Cingrani. I'd deal off Arredondo and non-tender Bray and Ondrusek with Masset as a wild card based on health. That's a pretty decent staff and the conditions with a closer and an alternate starter on hand would be right for giving Chapman a try as a starter, but the money needed for Broxton probably precludes signing Ludwick or upgrading CF. The best I could see happening would be bringing Rolen back on the cheap and getting a cheap guy to share the job (Wilson Betemit is my choice) with Frazier being the primary LF. CF would start out with another season of suffering with Stubbs and Heisey and hoping Billy Hamilton is ready sooner rather than later.

Agree on most counts, but I don't like Broxton as a well paid closer. He's not worth the money. He wouldn't be bad, but I doubt he'd be much better than most league minimum guys the Reds could convert into a closer. I'd much rather take a risk on Madson coming back strong from his surgery. I even think LeCure would be about as good as Broxton as a closer. Nothing special, but decent enough.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

the 30+ rule is generally applied to players under 26.

2014, when the 50 inning increase would occur, would be Chapman's age 26 season. I'm more worried about him getting hammered the second time through the order than I am the innings at this point.

He's no sure thing as a starter. Leaving him as the closer means they could pass on Broxton and spend the money on the OF. Moving him to the rotation means bucks for a closer and probably losing Ludwick and being stuck with Stubbs/Heisey.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by 757690

Agree on most counts, but I don't like Broxton as a well paid closer. He's not worth the money. He wouldn't be bad, but I doubt he'd be much better than most league minimum guys the Reds could convert into a closer. I'd much rather take a risk on Madson coming back strong from his surgery. I even think LeCure would be about as good as Broxton as a closer. Nothing special, but decent enough.

Will Madson even be ready before June? His recovery from surgery won't hit the 12 month mark until the season is a couple weeks old. Then we have that whole first year adjustment period to deal with. I'd pass unless its a minor league deal with a cheap guarantee ($1 Million or less) and some incentives.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The Reds, in this era, have historically gone by the roughly +30 inning increase. I wouldn't bank on them going much beyond that.

"Historically" isn't a hard and fast rule, though. As with almost everything in life, there are exceptions. And very few teams won't make them if they feel it's necessary to do so.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

If Chapman throws 150 in 2013, that only puts him at 180 for 2014, which means he isn't getting into the playoffs.

I can't believe that in this day and age, with so much money in the game, teams are still content to use complete and utter guesswork when it comes to managing pitch loads. How in the world can any competent front office not be heavily invested in and utilizing bio-mechanical analysis. That doesn't mean you can predict injuries of course, but it's certainly got to be a step up from management-by-rule-of-thumb.

[Red in Chicago]

I keep Homer. The odds of the staff being as healthy as they were this year is not likely.

I think Chapman as a starter becomes a much more hittable pitcher, missing far fewer bats. I say keep him in the pen as closer.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I can't believe that in this day and age, with so much money in the game, teams are still content to use complete and utter guesswork when it comes to managing pitch loads. How in the world can any competent front office not be heavily invested in and utilizing bio-mechanical analysis. That doesn't mean you can predict injuries of course, but it's certainly got to be a step up from management-by-rule-of-thumb.

The same reason the league wide OBP for a leadoff hitter is about .325. They don't get it.

But, in that regard, what exactly can be done in terms of biomechanical research that begins to suggest something? Mechanics get out of whack for a variety of reasons. Arm strength comes and goes throughout the season. This is an area where I am generally interested in, but I simply don't know enough about what can be done to help us in regards to limiting the "right" workload.

[RedsManRick]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The same reason the league wide OBP for a leadoff hitter is about .325. They don't get it.

But, in that regard, what exactly can be done in terms of biomechanical research that begins to suggest something? Mechanics get out of whack for a variety of reasons. Arm strength comes and goes throughout the season. This is an area where I am generally interested in, but I simply don't know enough about what can be done to help us in regards to limiting the "right" workload.

That teams haven't been studying this is part of the problem. I know some teams are, but for a few hundred grand a year you could have an ongoing monitoring system. If a guy like Chapman is at 150 innings but has all of his strength (or an amount comparable to most other pitchers) and is able to maintain his mechanics, why would you sit him?

How much is $500k in the whole scheme of things? Well, if you're paying a guy $5MM to make 30 starts, that's the equivalent of 3 starts -- 1 DL trip worth of production. Avoid a catastrophic injury that puts a guy out for the year and you pay for a decade of it.

Shouldn't teams know typical patters of muscle fatigue and recovery? Shouldn't they understand how different players experience fatigue and how quickly they personally recover? Shouldn't they be able to test a guy between every start? I simply don't get owners who wouldn't think twice about investing millions in QA monitoring systems or to develop an company intranet for their "real" jobs are so penny-foolish when it comes to baseball and aren't pushing their upper management to get more information when making such massive decisions.

[fearofpopvol1]

I'm sure a deal could be had, but I get the sense that Walt wants to keep Homer. Just a gut feeling. He's been awfully patient.

If there was a time to sell high though, it would be now.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by nate

Well, the Reds got this out of the leadoff spot in 2012:

.208/.254/.327

And this out of CF:

.226/.282/.339

I see the difference between Span's career slash line and either of those slash lines as roughly 20-25 runs over 600 PAs. Two-ish wins with no defense taken into account.

Span isn't necessarily my first choice but I think it's easy to see why he could be perceived as an improvement over what the Reds put in CF in 2012.

I don't disagree that he'd be an improvement...but an improvement worth Homer Bailey? Or Homer PLUS another player as some have opined? He seems like a decent player, but not someone worth anywhere CLOSE to the deals being tossed around here IMO.

And Span could just as easily fall back into what he was doing the 2 seasons before this year. The improvement over Stubbs is pretty minimal. The way I look at it is Span had a great year, Stubbs had a bad year...both could easily turn things around and the swap would look pretty bad.

[lollipopcurve]

The only way you deal Bailey is for an impact bat along the lines of Upton or Headley. There are too many leadoff types available for the Reds to be sacrificing much on that front. Hamilton is going to be the guy before too long anyway.

[M2]

Right now starting pitching depth is the Reds' calling card. I wouldn't be in a hurry to move Bailey or Leake. I think the Reds need to see what they can get for Corcino or Cingrani before they dismantle their rotation.

I certainly wouldn't be shopping Bailey.

However, the one factor that could change things would be if Chapman were to finally convert to the rotation.

[Roy Tucker]

If the Reds got a return like the Padres did for Latos, I might think about trading Homer.

But it would have to be a big return. Homer is good now. Forget what he's done in previous seasons. He was young and foolish and growing. He's finally gotten to where we wanted him to be.

And the Reds have never had pitching like they have now. And I like that a whole lot better than the big bopper hitters/soft-tosser pitchers rosters we've seen in the past. I'll take getting run-starved every so often rather than losing a bunch of slugfests.

[corkedbat]

* Wouldn't deal Homer unless the deal brought a CF and his rotation replacement too. I would deal Leake

* CF would be my top priority - Fowler, Span, Ellsbury, Bourn, DeJesus, Victorino, Crisp would be my targets (in that order). The arguement that you don't go after a high-OBP CF/leadoff hitter because Billy may be ready sometime in the next two years mystifies me. I can see it being a reason not so sign a FA longterm, but if you deal for a guy, it's not like you can't deal him if Billy forces his way into CF. Or maybe you move Billy back to SS and deal Cozart/Didi. Either way, not a problem I would worry about - especially now. Also allows you to avoid rushing BH.

* I expect Walt to also try and sign/acquire a Top-3 (in the rotation) to combine with Cueto and Latos. Garza would be my guess if healthy. I believe some people are over-rating the chances that moving Arolids to the rotation will result in a dominant starter. At this point, you know he's a dominant closer. Move him to the rotation and you risk causing a problem at two roster spots.

* I'd do my best to re-sign Ludwick and Navarro, but I wouldn't over-pay by much (if at all). I'd start Mes in L'Ville if he isn't the primary in the rotation. If Luddy leaves, JUpton or Choo would be my top targets. I'd also bring in an "kick the tires" on Grady Sizemore, but the deal would have to be cheap, incentive laden and no more than a year with and option. I'd want a thurough physical and even then I'd be very cautious.

* I'd try to sign Kelly Johnson to backup or rotate with Frazier @ 3B and Ludwick in LF.

* If either Madson or Broxton can be signed to a decent deal, I'd do it. Madson for an incentive-laden deal this year and a club or mutual option would work for me.

* I'd sign a couple of BU MI's for depth, but I'm also quite willing to let Cozart and Didi battle it out in ST and either platoon them in some manner or let the also-ran be the reserve.

* I would have no problem with Cingrani starting the year in the Reds pen.

* I'd consider reasonable extensions for Latos, Bailey and Cueto (his deal expires in 2014)