Trade/Sell High on Homer?

[Vottomatic]

I'm not advocating trading starting pitching simply to do it. I'm saying exploring the option based on other teams bringing proposals to us isn't a bad thing. What if a Herschel Walker type deal is put on the table? You never know.

Also, half the 25 man roster was produced through our drafting, international signing, and development. At what point do we start infiltrating the "next generation" of minor leaguers? Corcino? Cingrani? Chapman to the rotation? etc.........

Which brings up total payroll cost. This team isn't going to spend $100+ million. Decisions on who to pay long term are on the immediate horizon, and replacing some of these guys with equal pieces, but cheaper, are going to have to be made.

And the old saying is true.........you have to give up quality to get something quality in return. Some of the proposals of trading our junk for a quality need isn't going to happen.

[hebroncougar]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I think the trick is, can they fill their desired upgrade at leadoff/CF by trading prospects or second-tier major leaguers (Stubbs, Heisey, Leake, Ondrusek - types)? And how sure are they of Billy Hamilton down the road in 2014?

What I see is a team with alot of options. I think they should keep an open mind this offseason and let teams come to them with trade ideas instead of pursuing others.

Also, I'd pursue Span as their #1 target, but pursue Fowler harder. Meaning, put it out there that Span is the guy they want, even if Fowler is REALLY the guy they want. Never tip your hand.

I think the Reds are in the driver's seat this offseason, and I think it will be very interesting.

I think they will sign a Juan Pierre type to platoon with Stubbs in CF, to give Hamilton a year at AAA. If things aren't progressing well, I can see them being very aggressive in a trade in the middle of the season.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

What about thinking outside the box and trading Cueto while his value is high?

What kind of return would he merit?

Could you get a starter and a quality CFer in return?

There's a reason why thinking outside of the box is, well, outside the box.

[fearofpopvol1]

Originally Posted by M2

Right now starting pitching depth is the Reds' calling card. I wouldn't be in a hurry to move Bailey or Leake. I think the Reds need to see what they can get for Corcino or Cingrani before they dismantle their rotation.

I certainly wouldn't be shopping Bailey.

However, the one factor that could change things would be if Chapman were to finally convert to the rotation.

I thought you weren't high on Bailey at all?

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by hebroncougar

I think they will sign a Juan Pierre type to platoon with Stubbs in CF, to give Hamilton a year at AAA. If things aren't progressing well, I can see them being very aggressive in a trade in the middle of the season.

If Juan Pierre is the answer, I'll be concerned.

I hope this isn't like 2010 offseason when the Reds stood pat and the Cards and Brewers made positive changes which lead to the Reds mediocre 2011 season.

It's not like Votto and Phillips are getting any younger.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by jojo

The team one 97 games this season while missing one of the best players in the majors for a significant stretch, ultimately losing in the playoffs to a team that looks like it is about to win the world series.

Gutting one of the team's greater strengths of last season seems like an unnecessarily risky strategy.

Standing pat is a surefire way to see the same results in 2013.

I, for one, am sick of seeing other teams celebrating.

[Vottomatic]

Yeah, I'm not interested in being the '90's Braves. Win the division every year and fall short of winning it all.

Making the improvements is the tightrope game. Kind of like the great Reds teams of the early '70's that couldn't put it together and then they go acquire Morgan, Geronimo, Billingham. I feel this team needs those final pieces of the puzzle.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

It's not like Votto and Phillips are getting any younger.

Well, if the "core" of the team is getting old creating more of a "win now" attitude, how does trading our Ace pitcher Cueto feed into that scenario?

BTW, Votto is 29, hardly ready for the retirement home yet.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Standing pat is a surefire way to see the same results in 2013.

I, for one, am sick of seeing other teams celebrating.

If the same results means having the 2nd best record in baseball and earning a cakewalk into the playoff, I'm all for it.

After that it's all a crap shoot.

[757690]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

If the same results means having the 2nd best record in baseball and earning a cakewalk into the playoff, I'm all for it.

After that it's all a crap shoot.

And being one AB away from advancing to the NLCS many times.

If over the next five years the Reds repeat what they did 2012, I would be ecstatic.

[757690]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Yeah, I'm not interested in being the '90's Braves. Win the division every year and fall short of winning it all.

Making the improvements is the tightrope game. Kind of like the great Reds teams of the early '70's that couldn't put it together and then they go acquire Morgan, Geronimo, Billingham. I feel this team needs those final pieces of the puzzle.

Difference between the BRM of the 70's and the Braves of the '90's? One World Series Championship.

I'll gladly take 16 consecutive Division Championships, thank you.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

If the same results means having the 2nd best record in baseball and earning a cakewalk into the playoff, I'm all for it.

After that it's all a crap shoot.

I have a fundamental disagreement of opinion with anyone who believes the playoffs aren't worth considering because "it's all just luck."

Championships are why you play the game. Teams are remembered for winning Championships, not nice little runs of regular season success.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Yeah, I'm not interested in being the '90's Braves. Win the division every year and fall short of winning it all.

There was nothing wrong with those Braves teams that prevented them from winning the world series.

They did their job, and got into the playoffs. After that, the randomness of baseball determines the winner as much as anything else.

If the 2012 playoffs were replayed you'd likely have defferent winners in many series.

The Giants may have won the world series, but does anyone believe they were the best team in baseball in 2012?

[bucksfan2]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

I thought you weren't high on Bailey at all?

This wasn't directed at me but it fit my feelings on Homer. But as the season wore along the guy was nails. On the road this season Homer had a 2.32 ERA and a WHIP of 1. When he starts to put it together at home Homer may turn into a legit #2 type pitcher, one with a Latos ceiling. Not to mention that Homer pitched an absolute gem in game 3 of the post season.

I wouldn't look into trading Homer. I think his ceiling is as high as anyone else in the system. I would look at a Cueto deal for Homer this offseason. (as well as Latos.)

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

I have a fundamental disagreement of opinion with anyone who believes the playoffs aren't worth considering because "it's all just luck."

I never said they were not worth considering. Please don't put words in my mouth.

I said that the determination of the playoff winners is as much due to randomness as anything else. The better teams have some advantage of winning, but it's not likely much more than 55% in any given series.

If "winners" could truly win when needed, you'd have baseball teams win 80% of their games, and not have seasons where barely a few teams struggle to win even 60% (like 2012).