Joe Poz: The New Paradigm

[redsmetz]

It's all about October, so he says. Interesting analysis of the direction baseball has taken.

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/201...t-october.html

[Cooper]

The teams with the better records should get more of an advantage -maybe 4 home games vs 1 in a 5 game series...or 5/2 in a 7 game series.

[M2]

Interesting question posed on whether baseball should be focused on being a persistent/gate business or a big event/television business. Obviously the two aren't exclusive, but the true must-see ratings bonanza would have been a Yankees-Phillies trilogy from 2009-2011. Yeah, lots of people would complain, but those same people would also watch because they wouldn't dare miss the next legendary clash between two titans.

Anyway, I think for the Reds, baseball is more of a persistent/gate business. The team needs to be consistently good, not sometimes great/lucky. Hopefully the Reds get a run like the A's and Twins did. And hopefully the Reds do better in the playoff crapshoot than those organizations.

[757690]

Great article. I obviously agree with everything he said, and think it's a shame what baseball has done to itself. The Reds will probably win another World Series title in my lifetime, but it won't be the same as when they won it the other three times. It just won't mean as much.

[lollipopcurve]

The teams with the better records should get more of an advantage -maybe 4 home games vs 1 in a 5 game series...or 5/2 in a 7 game series.

I agree.

[traderumor]

And he didn't even make mention of the Cardinals two WS wins, one with a barely .500 team, the other with an unlikely September/October run.

What the WC has done is allow for teams to reconfigure and win the WC and actually are arguably the better team at the time the playoffs occur. The 2011 Cards are certainly an example of that.

[mdccclxix]

It is interesting that the numbers for the WS have gone down so drastically, but I don't think it can have all to do with a watered down postseason. There are a lot of other competitive factors involved from Football (pro and college), and Basketball (pro and college). There are also a lot of things eating into the entertainment budget that were not around. A million other channels to watch etc. But the clear winner has been Football, which is event driven and scheduled so as not to demand a whole week's worth of attention. Get everything else done and tune in for the event every week at the same time. Incidentally, the ratings for the Wild Card play in were quite good:

Through its first two days of coverage, TBS is averaging 3.9 million viewers, up +26% over last year’s first two days of Postseason coverage. The two Wild Card Games averaged more than 4.6 million viewers, up +61% over last year’s first day of coverage and also exceeded the average 4.2 million viewers for the entire 19-game 2011 Division Series.

I think a solution to the ratings in the postseason could involve more of this type of thinking that creates that dynamic tension Joe P talked about. The NFL doesn't have a problem with a 10-6 pakers team or 9-7 giants team wins it all because the viewers don't seem to care about anything else but who's playing well and who's performing under pressure when it counts the most. It's also a decisive game each playoff week. Win or go home. Perhaps shorten the LCS series to 3 games at the higher seed's home. Play the series on a Friday, Saturday, Sunday, the format that fans are used to tuning into baseball. It does get disorienting watching a Friday/Sunday split. That's not what the NFL could/would/should do.

[RedsBaron]

I have been thinking about the different directions MLB's centerpiece, the World Series, and the NFL's centerpiece, the Super Bowl, have taken over the last 15 years or so. Not just in ratings, but in the quality of the game or games.
A truly great World Series is a seven game World Series, one that goes as close as possible to the final at bat before it is decided, as tension builds and fans anxiously wait to see who wins. A truly great Super Bowl goes as close as possible to the final minute, the final second, as tension builds and fans anxiously wait to see who wins.
Baseball had enjoyed a string of terrific seven game World Series in the 15 years prior to the Super Bowl, as seven game series were played in 1952 (a terrific duel between the Yankees and Dodgers), 1955 (the Dodgers finally won), 1956 (Yankees revenge and with a perfect game), 1957 (Braves win), 1958 (Yankees avenge Braves defeat), 1960 (Maz wins with HR in final at bat), 1962 (if only McCovey had hit the ball three feet higher), 1964 (Gibson's great effort)) and 1965 (Koufax's masterpiece on two days rest).
The first Super Bowl was played in 1967, but for the first several decades most of the Super Bowls were blow outs. Only Super Bowl V (the "Blunder Bowl") Super Bowls X and XII (Steelers over Cowboys both times), along with arguably the Steelers over the Rams in 1980, and the Redskins over the Dolphins in 1983 were truly close games in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile MLB kept putting out terrific seven game World Series: 1967 (Gibson again), 1968 (Lolich best Gibson), 1971 (Clemente), 1972 (broke my heart but a terrific series), 1973 and the supreme 1975 World Series. These were followed by seven game series in 1979 (We Are Family), 1982, 1985 and 1986.
The NFL finally enjoyed a magnificent Super Bowl when the Giants defeated the Bills 20-19 in 1991. MLB came right back with a terrific seven game series in 1991 between the Twins and Jack Morris against the Braves.
Then a third round of playoffs with the wild card was added to MLB in 1994. 1994 obviously didn't produce a seven game World Series. We did get seven game series in 1997, 2001, 2002 and 2011, and all were classics, but otherwise we have generally had a run of largely forgettable four and five game World Series quickly forgotten by all but the fans of the victors.
The NFL however has suddenly started producing one terrific heart stopping Super Bowl after another: Beginning with the Broncos-Packers and the Rams-Titans Super Bowls in 1998 and 1999, all five of the Patriots Super Bowls (including two losses to the Giants), the Steelers-Cardinals, the Saints-Colts and the Packers-Steelers Super Bowls, more often than not, over the last 15 years the Super Bowl has been a down to the final second thrill ride.
Has the additional round of playoffs in MLB adversely affected the drama of the World Series? Darned if I know--but for the most part we have had a forgettable run of World Series for the last 15 years or so.

[Rojo]

Originally Posted by RedsBaron

A truly great World Series is a seven game World Series, one that goes as close as possible to the final at bat before it is decided, as tension builds and fans anxiously wait to see who wins.

Yeah, I've always thought a true apple-apple would be Super Bowls vs. Game 7's. My guess is that the gap closes dramatically. But I'm too lazy to do the research.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

The NFL doesn't have a problem with a 10-6 pakers team or 9-7 giants team wins it all because the viewers don't seem to care about anything else but who's playing well and who's performing under pressure when it counts the most. I

The NFL (and, by extension, the NFL fans) doesn't have a problem with a 10-6 Packers team or a 9-7 Giants team winning a Super Bowl because the point of playing the season is to win a Super Bowl, not determine who the best team is.

[westofyou]

Baseball is a marathon, worship the sprint if you must.

As a fan of the game I don't let the media dictate the game to me and try and define what I should see as important.

[BCubb2003]

Interleague and interdivision play have something to do with the different context of the postseason. It's not like you're playing the best from far-off lands that you haven't seen before, to discover who's the best of all. You've played these guys before, or have played somebody who has played them. You've won 97 games and proven yourself. But now you have to perform in the stunts. How are you in the 3-of-5 event? The 4-of-7 event?

[Caveat Emperor]

Poz addresses the reason for all this: Money.

More post-season slots means more meaningful games played in August and September. Meaningful games = tickets sold, TVs turned on.

If fans showed up at the ballpark regardless of the situation (to watch the "marathon" even after someone else had crossed the finish line), it wouldn't be necessary. But, the owners discovered they could sell more tickets by increasing the level of opportunity for all.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

The NFL (and, by extension, the NFL fans) doesn't have a problem with a 10-6 Packers team or a 9-7 Giants team winning a Super Bowl because the point of playing the season is to win a Super Bowl, not determine who the best team is.

You take it the same way in baseball, right? So do you have a problem with 10 teams getting in the playoffs?

[Tom Servo]

I just wish we could get rid of the wild card round and go back to the 1969-1993 format. Have a best of 7 NLCS and ALCS between the two best teams in each league, and then your 7 game World Series.