2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Superdude

Is there a precedent of any hitter with Hamilton's skill set walking a lot? I can't imagine the strategy against him at the big league level being anything other than, "throw strikes, throw strikes, and throw more strikes." I'm thoroughly intrigued by Billy Hamilton, but his numbers so far are practically interchangeable with other speed flops like Taveras and Gathright at similar points in their career.

Maybe a guy like Michael Bourn.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I'm thoroughly intrigued by Billy Hamilton, but his numbers so far are practically interchangeable with other speed flops like Taveras and Gathright at similar points in their career.

Hamilton has shown a lot more power than those guys. Both Gathright and Taveras were pathetic at driving the ball for extra base hits. Hamilton has put up back-to-back 30+ XBH seasons (neither Gathright nor Taveras could even top 20 XBH until they got older). He's got enough pop to drive the ball into gaps and make pitchers pay for pounding the strikezone against him.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Maybe a guy like Michael Bourn.

Bourn is definitely a better comparison for Hamilton. Like Billy, Bourn can sting the ball enough to get it into the gaps. He had 39 XBH as a 21 year old in single-A, 32 XBH the following year and AA, and 29 XBH in his final year in the minors (split between AA & AAA). He's been able to consistently put up between 30 and 40 XBH since reaching the majors as well. That's enough to keep pitchers honest.

[Tadasimha]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

Hamilton has shown a lot more power than those guys. Both Gathright and Taveras were pathetic at driving the ball for extra base hits. Hamilton has put up back-to-back 30+ XBH seasons (neither Gathright nor Taveras could even top 20 XBH until they got older). He's got enough pop to drive the ball into gaps and make pitchers pay for pounding the strikezone against him.

I'm curious as to how many of those XBH are due to Hamilton's hitting the ball hard or due to his extraordinary speed. Is it possible he's stretching a long single into a double?

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by Tadasimha

I'm curious as to how many of those XBH are due to Hamilton's hitting the ball hard or due to his extraordinary speed. Is it possible he's stretching a long single into a double?

Gathright and Taveras also have extraordinary speed but couldn't get an extra base hit to save their lives. Gathright once posted SEVEN doubles totals for a season. That is downright pathetic. The notion that fast guys automatically rack up big doubles totals based on their speed is a fallacy.

I don't care how fast you are, you aren't going to get extra base hits unless you make outfielders turn their hips, either to chase a ball in the gaps or because it is over their head. Hamilton and Bourn consistently make outfielders turn their hips, something those other fast guys were never able to do.

[redsfan1995]

For those interested MLB Network is showing the Arizona Fall League Rising Stars game this Saturday at 8 PM.

[Hoosier Red]

Originally Posted by Tadasimha

I'm curious as to how many of those XBH are due to Hamilton's hitting the ball hard or due to his extraordinary speed. Is it possible he's stretching a long single into a double?

I think that's where it's important to consider the comparables brought up earlier.

Whether its "just stretching a single into a double" or "knocking a ball to the wall" neither Tavares nor Gaithright could do it with the regularity that Hamilton has thus far.


Also, even stretching a single into a double shows why pitchers need to be more careful around him and can't simply throw fastball straight down the middle, thus leading to more walks.

<EDIT> Instead of reading my post, just read Steve4192's post he answers it better than I.

[kpresidente]

Originally Posted by Tadasimha

I'm curious as to how many of those XBH are due to Hamilton's hitting the ball hard or due to his extraordinary speed. Is it possible he's stretching a long single into a double?

Isn't that good enough? If I'm going to pitch around a guy because I'm afraid he's going to hit a double, what do I care whether he hits a one-hopper to the fence or stretches a single into a double? Does that change anything about my approach as the pitcher?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by kpresidente

Isn't that good enough? If I'm going to pitch around a guy because I'm afraid he's going to hit a double, what do I care whether he hits a one-hopper to the fence or stretches a single into a double? Does that change anything about my approach as the pitcher?

It does, because the guy who can hit a one hopper to the fence can probably take a mistake over it with semi-regularity. The guy who is constantly stretching singles into double can't. You worry about throwing strikes more often to the first guy. Not so much the second guy. In theory at least.

[M2]

I'm trying to think of a player who ever got any kind of SLG due to his speed. No one stretches singles into doubles with any kind of regularity. In fact, doubles leaders boards are often littered with slow players. The quality of the hit is what gets you a double. If you don't get it into a gap then even a Juan Pierre can make the throw to second.

Speed can turn a double into a triple (or a triple into a HR), and that might be what we're seeing with Hamilton. Instead of 22 doubles with 14 triples, he might be hitting more like a 30 doubles, 6 triples player who legs his way to extra triples.

[dougdirt]

Curtis Partch and Billy Hamilton will be participating as the Reds representatives of the Rising Stars All Star Game on Saturday (MLB Network - 9pm - this Saturday).

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Curtis Partch and Billy Hamilton will be participating as the Reds representatives of the Rising Stars All Star Game on Saturday (MLB Network - 9pm - this Saturday).

Partch seems to have made a big step forward since his move to the pen. Could he come fast? He's one of my minor league sleepers who might have a shot at helping the Reds at some point in 2013. If the Reds cut loose or deal off some guys to save some cash (Ondrusek, Bray, Arredondo, Broxton, Madson, Masset, etc.) there may be some opportunity in the pen. I'm not suggesting that Partch would be in the mix in spring training, but if the team burns through a few options due to injury or ineffectiveness, I'm guessing Partch may put himself in position for a shot by mid-season.

[camisadelgolf]

I hope I'm wrong about him, but until Curt Partch develops a pitch that can get lefties out, I'm not all that high on him. I felt the same way about Ondrusek, but Ondrusek developed a cutter and is now better against lefties than he is righties.

[Matt700wlw]

MLB Network to air 3 AFL games

http://mlbnetwork.mlb.com/news/artic...id=mlb_network

[19braves77]

Lutz AFL season is done. Broken Finger