Joe Poz: The New Paradigm

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1

Wouldn't everyone choose #1? 5-6 years seems like nothing when you consider it's been over 22?

Exactly. You can ***** about the postseason system forever, but it's not going back. Anyone who has ever played a sport knows you play to win that trophy. No one dreams of being consistently pretty good while lifting all those weights, running all those miles or spending all those hours in the cage.

If, as a fan, you would rather watch consistently pretty good, OK. I can understand that, I guess. Don't agree, but reasonable people can disagree.

[Patrick Bateman]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Theoretically speaking, which would you choose:

1. Reds win the World Series, gut the team the next year and proceed to lose consistently for the next 6-7 years.

2. Reds win consistently for the next 5-6 years -- make the playoffs every year, but never win a World Series.

I would probably take the contending for 5-6 years because the one memory for me would not be worth enduring 972 games of terrible baseball. Every fan is different though, I could see how one person would prefer the WS.

In the end though, this isn't really a question stemming from reality. You can't make a team that is guaranteed to win the WS. The Reds were as well positioned as anyone this season, and their ace pitcher went down 8 pitches into game 1. A perfect team might have as a great as a chance as about 15% compared to the average team at about 12%. It's just not worht increasing the chances so minimally at the expense of future opportunity.

The math is simple. Keep making a team good enough to make the playoffs, and that alone is going to give your the best chance to win the WS. Those old Oakland and Twins teams were not incapable of winning a WS. They just simply did not play well at the right time, which more than anything is a reflection of luck/randomness.

For that reason, I don't think it's fair to use such a random event as being the end all determination of "success." Every year the best team in baseball is unlikely to win the WS. The WS does not decide the best team, the regular season comes as close to defining that as possible. The WS just glorifies the a winner based on a small sample that at minimum has to be a pretty good team otherwise they wouldn't make the playoffs in the first place.

[mdccclxix]

Funny yesterday the NBA page for ESPN asked on opening night, Who Will Win It All? Okay...can we watch the regular season for a while first?

[M2]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

Theoretically speaking, which would you choose:

1. Reds win the World Series, gut the team the next year and proceed to lose consistently for the next 6-7 years.

2. Reds win consistently for the next 5-6 years -- make the playoffs every year, but never win a World Series.

I'd pick #2 without hesitation. Years of quality baseball and excitement trump one flourish followed by a near-decade of soul-crushing awfulness. I figure enough of us have enough direct experience with this. You don't hear people complaining about 1977-81 (outside of MLB fixing the system against the Reds in 1981). We could have mammoth threads about good memories from 1985-89 and 1992-96. Conversely, 1982-84 and 2001-2009 were brutal.

I like that the Reds matter again. May they matter for a very long time. And if they do that but fall short of a World Series it will only be a slight disappointment that tinges my otherwise good memories.

The good news is that your best chance of winning a World Series is to make the playoffs a bunch of times. Plus, the crapshoot nature of the playoffs means you really can't plan to win a World Series. Theoretically the Reds had everything they needed to do it this year and it didn't happen.

[Rojo]

Originally Posted by M2

Years of quality baseball and excitement trump one flourish

Tantric baseball.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Rojo

Tantric baseball.

Man, where's the rep button? I want to rep that.

[RED VAN HOT]

Do away with All Star winner getting WS home field advantage. Use season record. Also, no off days during playoffs. To win the playoffs a team would then need the same pitching depth, both SP and RP, that is needed to win the regular season. To get an off day during the playoffs, win your series earlier than your next opponent does. MLB will still get plenty of prime time games, and I believe, more fan interest.

Some ball parks play differently in October than in mid summer. It is one more consideration for GM's in building a team that can compete year around. Admittedly, west coast teams have a slight advantage due to less seasonal variation in temperature, but not a significant one.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

Do away with All Star winner getting WS home field advantage. Use season record. Also, no off days during playoffs. To win the playoffs a team would then need the same pitching depth, both SP and RP, that is needed to win the regular season. To get an off day during the playoffs, win your series earlier than your next opponent does. MLB will still get plenty of prime time games, and I believe, more fan interest.

Some ball parks play differently in October than in mid summer. It is one more consideration for GM's in building a team that can compete year around. Admittedly, west coast teams have a slight advantage due to less seasonal variation in temperature, but not a significant one.

I agree with this 100%. I loathe the off days during the playoffs and that all star BS. However, it's not gonna change. The playoff schedule is set up for TV ratings. But then again, I'd like to see them do away with the playoffs being on cable TV and not regular networks.