Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

[CySeymour]

Originally Posted by Unassisted

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Does anyone have fond memories of the Danny Graves-to-SP experiment?

I don't think you can compare Graves talent to Aroldis.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by cincyinco

Anything to give Leake less starts.. He's a good back end pitcher, but I wonder where we would have been this year in the playoffs when Cueto went down, had we had another potential hammer in Chapman starting games.

Chapman, Cueto, Latos is a top 3 I would salivate over. Homer and Arroyo in the back. Leake as insurance or trade bait with Cingrini being "close".

Hindsight is nice, however is it a lock that we get to the playoffs with Aroldis in the rotation?

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Sure, but we already know for a fact that he can be Kimbrel. Why settle for that when you could get more and if you can't, the odds are pretty strong he can go back to being a guy like Kimbrel? The only real downside is the injury thing and that is going to be there whether he starts or relieves.

Do you think the injury risk is the same whether he remains at closer or transitions to the rotation? And why do you think the odds are pretty strong that he goes back and being a guy like Kimbrel? It is easy to speak in the hypothetical.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't get the mindset of those who want to keep him as a closer. I really don't. Would you have have Justin Verlander or Craig Kimbrel? That is a no brainer. The Reds potentially have a Verlander but they are using him like Kimbrel. Both are quite valuable, but one is a whole lot more valuable than the other.

I think the big question is whether Chapamn would be like Verlander. The odds are likely against it.


There are lots of pitchers who throw very hard who likely couldn't cut is as a starter.

The Braves must think that Krimel couldn't.

Now none of this means he can't be a starter, but you stated you don't get the mindset of those who would prefer a Krimel over a Verlander. No one would. It's just that many don't know if you would get a Verlander.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

I think the big question is whether Chapamn would be like Verlander. The odds are likely against it.


There are lots of pitchers who throw very hard who likely couldn't cut is as a starter.

The Braves must think that Krimel couldn't.

Now none of this means he can't be a starter, but you stated you don't get the mindset of those who would prefer a Krimel over a Verlander. No one would. It's just that many don't know if you would get a Verlander.

You probably won't get a Verlander. But what if you get a Cueto? Or a Latos? Each of those guys are also quite a bit more valuable than a Kimbrel. I don't know, I see it as not taking a risk to be great simply because you are content with being good. That isn't really on the player, but on management.

[Tom Servo]

Maximize Chapman's talent, let him start.

[RANDY IN INDY]

Chapman could be successful as a starter, but the clock is ticking on his time in Cincinnati and it will take some time for him to transition, if he actually can. He definitely will have to come up with a third pitch that he can consistently throw for strikes. I also agree with the comment that a failed attempt at starting could weigh very heavy on a seemingly fragile psyche, returning to the closer role. I honestly wonder what the kid really wants to do.

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

You probably won't get a Verlander. But what if you get a Cueto? Or a Latos? Each of those guys are also quite a bit more valuable than a Kimbrel. I don't know, I see it as not taking a risk to be great simply because you are content with being good. That isn't really on the player, but on management.

Latos 2012 fWAR- 3.1
Latos 2011 fWAR- 3.3

Kimbrel 2012 fWAR- 3.6
Kimbrel 2011 fWAR- 3.2

Chapman 2012 fWAR- 3.3
Chapman 2011 fWAR- let's not talk about it.

Fangraphs also has written articles that I had sourced in previous Chapman-to-the-bullpen discussions that say that fWAR for SP and RP aren't interchangeable, and that WPA is a better predictor of wins added by a RP than WAR is.

My view is that right now, we have a sure-fire top 3 closer in MLB. If he is converted to SP, then a new closer needs to be identified and implemented, the back end of the bullpen should be reworked, and a new home needs to be found for one (or both) of Bailey and Leake. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that he either thrives as a starter and becomes Latos, Bumgarner, or Samardzjia (let alone Verlander), and there is no guarantee that if he fails as a starter that he can just put his Kimbrel mask back on and return to being a dominant closer.

I truly feel that the Chapman to starter ship has sailed in the eyes of the management (like it or not)in terms of his role with the Reds for now; the team is competitive and it doesn't make sense, no matter how much Lance McAllister or Mo Egger want you to believe, to fundamentally change the current squad. I would rather use time and energy getting more of a sure thing, such as a Garza or Haren, and keep Chapman as insurance that games only last eight innings.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Latos 2012 fWAR- 3.1
Latos 2011 fWAR- 3.3

Kimbrel 2012 fWAR- 3.6
Kimbrel 2011 fWAR- 3.2

Chapman 2012 fWAR- 3.3
Chapman 2011 fWAR- let's not talk about it.

Fangraphs also has written articles that I had sourced in previous Chapman-to-the-bullpen discussions that say that fWAR for SP and RP aren't interchangeable, and that WPA is a better predictor of wins added by a RP than WAR is.

My view is that right now, we have a sure-fire top 3 closer in MLB. If he is converted to SP, then a new closer needs to be identified and implemented, the back end of the bullpen should be reworked, and a new home needs to be found for one (or both) of Bailey and Leake. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that he either thrives as a starter and becomes Latos, Bumgarner, or Samardzjia (let alone Verlander), and there is no guarantee that if he fails as a starter that he can just put his Kimbrel mask back on and return to being a dominant closer.

I truly feel that the Chapman to starter ship has sailed in the eyes of the management (like it or not)in terms of his role with the Reds for now; the team is competitive and it doesn't make sense, no matter how much Lance McAllister or Mo Egger want you to believe, to fundamentally change the current squad. I would rather use time and energy getting more of a sure thing, such as a Garza or Haren, and keep Chapman as insurance that games only last eight innings.

I am not much a fan of pitching WAR. Too many variables unaccounted for. Nothing hammers that home for me more than Chapman's sub 80 innings being more valuable than the 200 that Latos produced.

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am not much a fan of pitching WAR. Too many variables unaccounted for. Nothing hammers that home for me more than Chapman's sub 80 innings being more valuable than the 200 that Latos produced.

Just out of curiosity (because I think WAR is a little bit of a misleading stat, anyway... it just made sense in this situation )... do you think pitching WAR is skewed more towards RP or SP? Do you think it is just too volatile given the roles and profiles of the players? I think both of these are good answers, but just want to pick your brain about it

[kaldaniels]

"Would you rather have a Verlander or a Kimbrel?" is not the correct question to ask.

A more accurate and fair question would be "You have a Craig Kimbrel-like closer on your team. Would you risk removing him from that role in the hopes that he becomes a successful starter?"

Honestly, I am fine with whatever the Reds do at this junction. If I were in charge 3 years ago, I would have strictly brought him up as a starter unless he showed me that it just wasn't in the cards. If I was in the GM chair today, I'd be inclined to let him carry on as a closer, though I could be convinced otherwise, depending on my available options to upgrade the staff/bullpen/closer via trades/FA.

[Kc61]

I respect the view that the Reds should concentrate on finding a very strong closer this off-season and start Chapman next year. I think that might be an ideal solution.

I don't think much of the view to let Chappy start and "the bullpen will take care of itself."

This isn't a Baseball America top prospects list. Team balance and needs are important too.

If the Reds had Madson of 2011, I'd easily want Chapman to start.
Broxton as closer? Not for me, let Chapman close.
Somebody else as closer? Depends on who.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Honestly, I am fine with whatever the Reds do at this junction. If I were in charge 3 years ago, I would have strictly brought him up as a starter unless he showed me that it just wasn't in the cards. If I was in the GM chair today, I'd be inclined to let him carry on as a closer, though I could be convinced otherwise, depending on my available options to upgrade the staff/bullpen/closer via trades/FA.

Yep. It's like getting straight A's in high school and then not going to college. A horrible, shortsighted, reprehensible decision in the beginning, but going back 30 years later is just impractical.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Just out of curiosity (because I think WAR is a little bit of a misleading stat, anyway... it just made sense in this situation )... do you think pitching WAR is skewed more towards RP or SP? Do you think it is just too volatile given the roles and profiles of the players? I think both of these are good answers, but just want to pick your brain about it

Well, first it brings up the question, which WAR are we talking about? Both versions have their own problems. When I look at pitching WAR it doesn't always jive with reality for me. I guess that position player WAR doesn't either, but that is always entirely due to defensive calculations causing either too much or to little value in the overall number. That can generally speaking, be accounted for by thumb in the air "how good is this guy defensively" calculation and you are probably good to go. With pitchers, it isn't really that easy. In both pitching WAR calculations there are assumptions made that I don't particularly agree with. I don't have a lot of time to get into it all right now, I have to pick up my dog from the vet shortly, so I will just leave it at: I don't agree with the assumptions made in either pitching WAR number and generally just avoid it at most times.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Why don't the Braves make Kimbrel a starter?