Melky Cabrera?

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All the free agency predictions I've seen published seem to be calling for a relatively cheap deal for the Melk Man - 1 yr/4-7 million, or 2 for 10-15. Given our outfield instability and need for top of the order bats, is he worth a look?

A switch hitter batting either 2nd or 4th and playing a decent LF sounds very good - and if the price and time commitment between Cabrera and Ludwick is similar (as it probably will be), I think I'd rather take a chance on Melky. Even with the 'roid issue, I still think Cabrera is a better bet to produce over the next couple of seasons than Ludwick. Coupled with a new lead-off hitter, we'd have a very effective lineup.

How much will the suspension affect his game? Even if it doesn't, is it worth signing him for the message it might send? People seemed to forget about Braun's transgressions pretty quickly, and his numbers didn't fall even a bit. Obviously they aren't the same tier of player, but is the comparison valid?

[MoneyInTheBank]

I'd really have to get with the team leaders (Votto, Phillips, etc.) and get their honest opinion on the guy before I would even consider it. I think it would be a really bad idea to dump a controversial guy on a young team on the brink of greatness. If they are supportive, I would pursue him, otherwise, not a chance

[Red Raindog]

He has shown me pretty much nothing until this sudden surge in the last year and a half -- when i suspect he was juiced.

Take a look at his stat line.


YEAR TEAM GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS WAR
2005 NYY 6 19 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .211 .211 .211 .422 -0.5
2006 NYY 130 460 75 129 26 2 7 50 56 59 12 5 .280 .360 .391 .751 2.7
2007 NYY 150 545 66 149 24 8 8 73 43 68 13 5 .273 .327 .391 .718 1.2
2008 NYY 129 414 42 103 12 1 8 37 29 58 9 2 .249 .301 .341 .642 0.2
2009 NYY 154 485 66 133 28 1 13 68 43 59 10 2 .274 .336 .416 .752 0.9
2010 ATL 147 458 50 117 27 3 4 42 42 64 7 1 .255 .317 .354 .671 -0.5
2011 KC 155 658 102 201 44 5 18 87 35 94 20 10 .305 .339 .470 .809 4.1
2012 SF 113 459 84 159 25 10 11 60 36 63 13 5 .346 .390 .516 .906 4.6

I pass.

[HometownHero]

Ken Rosenthal is saying Michael Morse could be on the move if the Nats bring back Adam LaRoche. If would call them right now and offer them Drew Stubbs for him to hold over their CF until their prospect is ready and fill our CF with Melky until Billy is ready.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/p...-agency-110412

Michael Morse playing half his games at GABP could hit 40 jacks, over the last 3 years these are his road slash lines..
.305/.330/.535/.865
.303/.357/.580/.937
.301/.345/.541/.886

When he hit 31 HR in 2011 he had 20 on the road, he has only 4 hits in 15 AB at BABP in his career but 3 of the 4 are XBH. He also has no flaws in his splits being a lifetime .292 hitter vs his weak side of the splits.

[HometownHero]

Originally Posted by Old Righthander

He has shown me pretty much nothing until this sudden surge in the last year and a half -- when i suspect he was juiced.

Take a look at his stat line.


YEAR TEAM GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS WAR
2005 NYY 6 19 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 .211 .211 .211 .422 -0.5
2006 NYY 130 460 75 129 26 2 7 50 56 59 12 5 .280 .360 .391 .751 2.7
2007 NYY 150 545 66 149 24 8 8 73 43 68 13 5 .273 .327 .391 .718 1.2
2008 NYY 129 414 42 103 12 1 8 37 29 58 9 2 .249 .301 .341 .642 0.2
2009 NYY 154 485 66 133 28 1 13 68 43 59 10 2 .274 .336 .416 .752 0.9
2010 ATL 147 458 50 117 27 3 4 42 42 64 7 1 .255 .317 .354 .671 -0.5
2011 KC 155 658 102 201 44 5 18 87 35 94 20 10 .305 .339 .470 .809 4.1
2012 SF 113 459 84 159 25 10 11 60 36 63 13 5 .346 .390 .516 .906 4.6

I pass.

To be fair he was kid pushed up the Yanks system quick and was in the tough AL East breaking in. He just turned 28 in August so the time he started to turn it on is the time many young players get it figured out.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Originally Posted by HometownHero

Ken Rosenthal is saying Michael Morse could be on the move if the Nats bring back Adam LaRoche. If would call them right now and offer them Drew Stubbs for him to hold over their CF until their prospect is ready and fill our CF with Melky until Billy is ready.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/p...-agency-110412

Michael Morse playing half his games at GABP could hit 40 jacks, over the last 3 years these are his road slash lines..
.305/.330/.535/.865
.303/.357/.580/.937
.301/.345/.541/.886

When he hit 31 HR in 2011 he had 20 on the road, he has only 4 hits in 15 AB at BABP in his career but 3 of the 4 are XBH. He also has no flaws in his splits being a lifetime .292 hitter vs his weak side of the splits.

I'd be all over Morse. Dude can mash the baseball

[Red Raindog]

Originally Posted by HometownHero

To be fair he was kid pushed up the Yanks system quick and was in the tough AL East breaking in. He just turned 28 in August so the time he started to turn it on is the time many young players get it figured out.

He was juicing ---- I can't ignore that and not wonder about the numbers.

I will agree he was likely pushed too quickly.

[Mr Larkin]

Not excited about Melky.

[HometownHero]

Originally Posted by Old Righthander

He was juicing ---- I can't ignore that and not wonder about the numbers.

I will agree he was likely pushed too quickly.

He did take testosterone but we have no idea when he started since he came up clean in all tests before the one he got busted on. But his last game he played was 3 days after his 28th birthday so starting to come into his own as a play at 26 and a half when he was in KC is a somewhat natural evolution for a player's development.

No doubt taking stuff helps your get stronger but its not like he's a big power hitter, the year he got popped he was hitting a HR one every 41.73 AB and 4 of the 11 HR came in the 3 of the NL's better HR parks in Phoenix, Denver and Philadelphia. In fact in those 3 parks he hit 27-for-56 with 12 XBH leaving just 34 XBH in the other 403 AB this year.

In places considered pitchers parks he didn't do hardly any XBH damage so its clear he was taking the wrong stuff to add power to his game if that was his goal. If taking testosterone could get you singles and a spike in BABIP then everyone would take it and tons of tons of minor league players would get popped for it.

[Red Raindog]

Originally Posted by HometownHero

He did take testosterone but we have no idea when he started since he came up clean in all tests before the one he got busted on. But his last game he played was 3 days after his 28th birthday so starting to come into his own as a play at 26 and a half when he was in KC is a somewhat natural evolution for a player's development.

No doubt taking stuff helps your get stronger but its not like he's a big power hitter, the year he got popped he was hitting a HR one every 41.73 AB and 4 of the 11 HR came in the 3 of the NL's better HR parks in Phoenix, Denver and Philadelphia. In fact in those 3 parks he hit 27-for-56 with 12 XBH leaving just 34 XBH in the other 403 AB this year.

In places considered pitchers parks he didn't do hardly any XBH damage so its clear he was taking the wrong stuff to add power to his game if that was his goal. If taking testosterone could get you singles and a spike in BABIP then everyone would take it and tons of tons of minor league players would get popped for it.

OK - you convinced me to a point -- he HAS to be an upgrade on Stubbs -- if he can be short term and the leadership in the locker room says get him -- I'd bite

[scott91575]

Originally Posted by Old Righthander

OK - you convinced me to a point -- he HAS to be an upgrade on Stubbs -- if he can be short term and the leadership in the locker room says get him -- I'd bite

There is only one problem, he is a bad fielding centerfielder. I doubt the Reds would sign him to play center, so he would not be replacing Stubbs. He would be signed to be a leftfielder.

[alett12]

No desire at all to see Melky in a Reds uniform, I feel that if the Nationals would take a package of Corcino (only because his delivery is very likely to cause injury) and Stubbs for Morse then could be a good trade for a middle of the order bat to put behind Votto. Doing that I would let Heisey man CF and bring in a veteran like Nyjer Morgan, Fukedome, or Rick Ankiel on a minor league deal as insurance if Heisey can not handle it everyday.

[webbbj]

7) How many years and how much money will Melky Cabrera get in free agency? What kind of deal would he have gotten before his PED suspension?

Responses: Most executives expect Cabrera to sign a one-year, make-good deal for a base salary of $2 million on the low side to $7 million to $10 million on the high side. Estimates of his contract before his failed drug test ranged from three years and $27 million to five years and $75 million.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Originally Posted by HometownHero

He did take testosterone but we have no idea when he started since he came up clean in all tests before the one he got busted on. But his last game he played was 3 days after his 28th birthday so starting to come into his own as a play at 26 and a half when he was in KC is a somewhat natural evolution for a player's development.

No doubt taking stuff helps your get stronger but its not like he's a big power hitter, the year he got popped he was hitting a HR one every 41.73 AB and 4 of the 11 HR came in the 3 of the NL's better HR parks in Phoenix, Denver and Philadelphia. In fact in those 3 parks he hit 27-for-56 with 12 XBH leaving just 34 XBH in the other 403 AB this year.

In places considered pitchers parks he didn't do hardly any XBH damage so its clear he was taking the wrong stuff to add power to his game if that was his goal. If taking testosterone could get you singles and a spike in BABIP then everyone would take it and tons of tons of minor league players would get popped for it.

I think you are missing the point a bit about what PEDs like Testosterone or Anabolic Steroids actually do for an athlete. They are not miracle drugs where you inject yourself and sit on the couch eating potato chips watching your muscles grow, get up and start tearing phonebooks in half. These drugs work because they help guys work out harder, longer and more frequently. So, yes, this can certainly help a player get in the gym, build strength and muscle mass to hit home runs. However, if this were the only positive aspect, then why would pitchers take them? Building bulk would actually be counter productive. The key is recovery.

Let's look at the difference between Melky's .274 AVG season and his .346 AVG season... the difference is less than 1 hit per game, 3 hits every 5 games to be exact. So, back to the point. A "natural" player is going to get fatigued during an extra inning game or a double header or a day game after a night game, where a guy using PEDs may not feel that fatigue. So, while he may not be jacking home runs out of the park, in that last couple ABs of these "fatiguing" situations the "natural" player may not be as fast with his hands and miss the barrel on his swing or try and cheat to catch up to a hittable fastball and get fooled badly on an offspeed pitch. Meanwhile, the player on the PEDs is still sharp and doesn't miss the barrel or get fooled on that offspeed pitch so he picks up a few extra hits a week.

I realize that everything I've said here seems like a whole lot of anecdotal mumbo jumbo so I understand if you disagree because there is no tangible things to grab onto but I truly believe the effect of PEDs goes far beyond the home run stat

[HometownHero]

Originally Posted by MoneyInTheBank

Let's look at the difference between Melky's .274 AVG season and his .346 AVG season..

One was a 24yo playing in the stacked AL East, the second was a 27 year old entering his prime. Then you have the luck factor, when he hit .274 he had a .288 BABIP and then .379 last season. He isn't going to keep being that lucky but his .332 BABIP from 2011 when he hit .305 is more realistic and at the one year reduced salary its will worth the move and then added in we play in a hitters park makes it even more enticing.