Jason Bay Released by Mets

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Forget Bay. Sign Ludwick and worry about CF from outside the organization for 2013.

If we were the Yankees, yes we'd re-sign Ludwick, Broxton, Madson and trade for Wright. However, even given the attendence/playoff sales boost, we still have limited resources. I think we can get a left fielder at below market value (I don't necessarily want this guy to be Bay) for three reasons. First, the market is flooded driving down guys values, second, most guys want to play for a contender and Cincinnati definitely has a contender next year and finally others saw what GABP did for Ludwick's performance last year, they might want to be on a similar one year deal so they can cash in like Ludwick is going to this off-season.

I really like Ryan Ludwick and would not be upset if we did re-sign him. I just think there is a good chance that we could get an average to above average left fielder to sign at below market value due to the three factors I listed above.

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Ryan Ludwick 2.2 WAR in 2010-11
Bay -0.1 WAR in 11-12

Narratives are similar but performance has not been.

Bay fell off of a fungible cliff upon heading to the Mets, and I think he might have lost it with the bat. Bay's ISOp and HR/FB fell off dramatically in 2010, and stayed down in 2011 and 2012. In 2012, Bay was also hindered by a super-low BABIP, making it look even worse than it was. Ludwick's story was one about changing approach once he went to bigger ballparks, and let's not forget that he wasn't necessarily signed to be the starting LF- he took over that mantle with a hot streak in early June.

I think Bay could be an interesting Ludwick-in-2011 level reclamation project in the chance that he hasn't lost it and instead the Mets simply messed up his approach a la Ludwick, but unless he could be had for the 2.5m or whatever Ludwick was signed for, he isn't worth pursuing.

[Chip R]

It's tempting. He sure used to kill the Reds when he was in PIT. But that was a few years ago.

[KoryMac5]

Bay's struggles were two fold, injuries and a ball park that swallowed up his bat. I think he would be a guy who sounds a lot like who we got last yr on the cheap in Ludwick.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

If we were the Yankees, yes we'd re-sign Ludwick, Broxton, Madson and trade for Wright. However, even given the attendence/playoff sales boost, we still have limited resources. I think we can get a left fielder at below market value (I don't necessarily want this guy to be Bay) for three reasons. First, the market is flooded driving down guys values, second, most guys want to play for a contender and Cincinnati definitely has a contender next year and finally others saw what GABP did for Ludwick's performance last year, they might want to be on a similar one year deal so they can cash in like Ludwick is going to this off-season.

I really like Ryan Ludwick and would not be upset if we did re-sign him. I just think there is a good chance that we could get an average to above average left fielder to sign at below market value due to the three factors I listed above.

Let's forget about the long list of Broxton, Madson, David Wright, Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth. Let's just focus on Ludwick.

The idea that the Reds cannot afford Ryan Ludwick for a starting position is inconceivable to me. This is not an all-star, not a near-all star. He is a pretty good player. The Red should be able to sign him for a two-year deal.

I can understand the "we're not the Yankees" mantra when it comes to a David Wright. But Ryan Ludwick?

If the Reds don't like Ludwick's game, well, then they should let him go. If he is overpricing himself, yes, they should let him go.

But he seems to me as a good, reasonable, choice for left field. He's not a luxury item, the Reds should be able to work something with him if they still like his game.

Jason Bay would be a high risk, high reward gamble. I'd prefer a deal with Ludwick, but whatever.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Let's forget about the long list of Broxton, Madson, David Wright, Ty Cobb and Babe Ruth. Let's just focus on Ludwick.

The idea that the Reds cannot afford Ryan Ludwick for a starting position is inconceivable to me. This is not an all-star, not a near-all star. He is a pretty good player. The Red should be able to sign him for a two-year deal.

I can understand the "we're not the Yankees" mantra when it comes to a David Wright. But Ryan Ludwick?

If the Reds don't like Ludwick's game, well, then they should let him go. If he is overpricing himself, yes, they should let him go.

But he seems to me as a good, reasonable, choice for left field. He's not a luxury item, the Reds should be able to work something with him if they still like his game.

Jason Bay would be a high risk, high reward gamble. I'd prefer a deal with Ludwick, but whatever.

My point is not that the Reds cannot afford Ryan Ludwick, but rather the Reds may be better served to use the money that Ludwick will get in free agency by acquiring another outfielder who value isn't so high after a big year especially considering we have holes in the bullpen and in centerfield. Again, I would not mind re-signing Ludwick. I just don't think we are in a position where we need to overpay and we need to understand the limitation of our resources.

[Crumbley]

If he'd take ten bucks to come in and compete for a job, sure.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

My point is not that the Reds cannot afford Ryan Ludwick, but rather the Reds may be better served to use the money that Ludwick will get in free agency by acquiring another outfielder who value isn't so high after a big year especially considering we have holes in the bullpen and in centerfield. Again, I would not mind re-signing Ludwick. I just don't think we are in a position where we need to overpay and we need to understand the limitation of our resources.

The left fielder on the team is likely the cleanup hitter in the starting lineup. He is an important offensive piece.

What I always liked about Ludwick is that he seemed adequate to fill that role, yet was not a big name, not a high salaried guy.

Hard for me to name a comparable or better LFer who will come much cheaper.

If this were a bench player or middle reliever then I'd be open to low cost gambles. But given the role the LFer plays in the lineup, given the team's makeup, I want Ludwick or better, which means some expenditure of funds will be necessary.

[Vottomatic]

Bay's decline? I'd surmise possibly PED's back then, and no more when his decline began.

I'm starting to consider more and more the Upton option. Reasonable contract for a young player whose best years SHOULD BE, but might not be, ahead of him.

[Patrick Bateman]

Not big on Bay. On one side, I think hitting wise Ludwick is a good comp. Similar type of situation Bay is in that Ludwick was in last year. I could see Bay coming into Cincy and putting up an .850 OPS.

On the other side, he's an atrocious fielder limiting his overall upside. He's going to need to be that .850 OPS bat to be a thing. Ludwick on the other hand is a more servicable fielder at the position and the Reds didn't need to entirely bank on the offensive turnaround to add some value. For that reason I don't find the risk on Bay that appealing as he could be a replacement level player more easily than he could be a valuable component.

If you can bring him in cheaply as a competition player, I think it's a good fit, but certainly not as 'the' solution to the LF hole.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman

If you can bring him in cheaply as a competition player, I think it's a good fit, but certainly not as 'the' solution to the LF hole.

He's interesting for sure, but I still make Ludwick the main target. Bay may be comparable to Ludwick pre-Cincy, but pinning our hopes on the same kind of turnaround is risky. Especially with Ludwick serving a crucial role batting behind Votto.

[Scrap Irony]

I'd gamble on him.

Fairly cheap, I'd think, with massive upside.

[mth123]

I'm thinking Bay's best option is the Yomiuri Giants or the Fukuoka Dai Hawks. He'd probably get the most money there and he's still young enough to have a good season and take a shot at the US again.

I'm wondering why Bay isn't playing winter ball somewhere. If he's really interested in showcasing his game and coming into spring in midseason form, I think he'd do that. Winter Ball was made for guys like Bay.