What would it take to get Justin Upton?

[SidneySlicker]

I think the Dbacks are going to start by talking Homer, Gregorious, and Soto with a throw in or two. I leave out Hamilton, because I think the Reds have made him untouchable. Would you do it?

[jhu1321]

Depends on there intentions with Chapman. If there is belief that he can be a TOR starter I think it makes Homer available to trade. If not, I think they start talking about Cingrani and Corcino. As much as I'm drooling about Homer's late season dominance, and the possibility of seeing more of that next year, it is the perfect sell high situation.

If they ask for Homer, Gregorious & Soto I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'd probably even be willing to include one of Cingrani/Corcino..........

[REDREAD]

If it costs Homer, I think I'll pass.

We can dig up an acceptable OF (although probably not as good as Upton) without blowing a hole in the rotation.

Even if Chapman moves into the rotation, I think we're going to need Homer and Leake to make it through the season..

If I'm Walt, none of the current starters get traded (unless another SP comes from somewhere else).

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

If it costs Homer, I think I'll pass.

We can dig up an acceptable OF (although probably not as good as Upton) without blowing a hole in the rotation.

Even if Chapman moves into the rotation, I think we're going to need Homer and Leake to make it through the season..

If I'm Walt, none of the current starters get traded (unless another SP comes from somewhere else).

Yeah I just don't see them doing it without at least 1 young player who's had success at the major league level, and the Reds minor league system simply isn't good enough to blow any team away for a Upton like player.

[Plus Plus]

I think it depends on which Justin Upton you are trading for, and if his season this year (a relatively average one) is going to be representative of his performance going forward or if he will be able to play as he did in 2011 going forward.

For 2011-level Justin Upton, that's probably a reasonable package. Maybe I would try and substitute Cozart in for Gregorious, but I think it would have to include a "sure thing" pitcher like Bailey (I don't think that Corcino or Cingrani would get it done, although they might- especially Cingrani after his season and his limited stay in MLB).

For 2012-level Justin Upton, I think that's an overpay. Maybe Leake, HRod, and Duran or something might be more at the level that I would give up for this player.

It really would take some deep analysis on the Reds' part because of Upton's age, his inconsistency in his young career so far, and the inconsistency of his brother BJ's performance in Tampa Bay, especially when considered relative to his projections that many had for BJ in 2008 at the beginning of his career.

Justin Upton can be a real game-changer if he plays to his potential, but trading real-life players and prospects for a .785 OPS corner outfield bat is a pretty bad proposition for any team.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by SidneySlicker

Yeah I just don't see them doing it without at least 1 young player who's had success at the major league level, and the Reds minor league system simply isn't good enough to blow any team away for a Upton like player.

Yea, I agree from the Dbax point of view.
You're proposal was reasonable, I just wouldn't do it from the Reds' point of view.
Might be a difficult match .. In fact any trade this winter might be difficult. The Reds really only have two guys (Hamilton and Cingrani) on the cusp of ML ready. Maybe I am forgetting someone, but not a big surplus there.

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by jhu1321

Depends on there intentions with Chapman. If there is belief that he can be a TOR starter I think it makes Homer available to trade. If not, I think they start talking about Cingrani and Corcino. As much as I'm drooling about Homer's late season dominance, and the possibility of seeing more of that next year, it is the perfect sell high situation.

If they ask for Homer, Gregorious & Soto I'd do it in a heartbeat. I'd probably even be willing to include one of Cingrani/Corcino..........

Agree on the Homer trade high theory. Unlike many I like Chapman in the Closer role. I think maybe people are overvaluing Chapman's ability to contribute this season as a starter. I wonder how much he would be able to contribute this season in the rotation, because it will take time to develop the arm strength and the 2nd and 3 pitches he'll need to start in the majors. imo. I could be wrong though.

I'd look at converting JJ Hoover over to fill in if Bailey were to be traded.

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Yea, I agree from the Dbax point of view.
You're proposal was reasonable, I just wouldn't do it from the Reds' point of view.
Might be a difficult match .. In fact any trade this winter might be difficult. The Reds really only have two guys (Hamilton and Cingrani) on the cusp of ML ready. Maybe I am forgetting someone, but not a big surplus there.

Gregorious has been highly touted this offseason as well. I don't have the exact source (d'oh!) but I read on twitter the other day that pundits believe that if his bat progresses as anticipated, he could be a 60 player going forward, and be a high quality player for quite some time. Henry Rodriguez' bat has also been widely praised as being as close to a sure thing as any player in the Reds' system. Corcino is also highly regarded, and Stephenson has humongous upside.

While the Reds' system isn't quite overflowing in the same way that it was before the Latos trade, there is still quite a bit of quality there.

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Gregorious has been highly touted this offseason as well. I don't have the exact source (d'oh!) but I read on twitter the other day that pundits believe that if his bat progresses as anticipated, he could be a 60 player going forward, and be a high quality player for quite some time. Henry Rodriguez' bat has also been widely praised as being as close to a sure thing as any player in the Reds' system. Corcino is also highly regarded, and Stephenson has humongous upside.

While the Reds' system isn't quite overflowing in the same way that it was before the Latos trade, there is still quite a bit of quality there.

I agree to an extent. It's all about knowing your minor leaguers better than anyone else and being able to sell other gm's on them.

[Vottomatic]

Reds trade - Bailey, Corcino, Stubbs, Heisey, Lutz (future 1B to replace Helton)
Rockies trade - Fowler, CarGo

Chapman moves into Reds rotation. Reds re-sign Madson and Broxton. Cingrani in the hunt for starter position if Leake fails.

CF Fowler
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF CarGo
RF Bruce
3B Frazier
SS Cozart
C Hanigan

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Arroyo
SP Chapman
SP Leake or Cingrani

CL Madson
RP Broxton
RP Marshall
RP Hoover
RP Ondrusek
RP Arredondo
RP LeCure

OF Paul /Frazier
IF Valdez
IF HRod
C Navarro
OF Phipps or Felix Perez or someone

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Reds trade - Bailey, Corcino, Stubbs, Heisey, Lutz (future 1B to replace Helton)
Rockies trade - Fowler, CarGo

Chapman moves into Reds rotation. Reds re-sign Madson and Broxton. Cingrani in the hunt for starter position if Leake fails.

CF Fowler
2B Phillips
1B Votto
LF CarGo
RF Bruce
3B Frazier
SS Cozart
C Hanigan

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Arroyo
SP Chapman
SP Leake or Cingrani

CL Madson
RP Broxton
RP Marshall
RP Hoover
RP Ondrusek
RP Arredondo
RP LeCure

OF Paul /Frazier
IF Valdez
IF HRod
C Navarro
OF Phipps or Felix Perez or someone

Pretty sure you wouldn't get Cargo for all of those players you mentioned, let alone him and Dexter Fowler. Cargo is probably a top 10 offensive player in the league and Fowler is solid. If the Colorado Rockies did that deal their GM should be fired immediately.

Stubbs is not a very good major league player, Heisey's a mediocre player at best. I like Lutz, but he's still relatively unknown and probably 2 years away from the Majors. So basically they'd be doing that deal for Bailey (a flyball pitcher who'd play at coors field for 81 games) and Corcino who i do like a lot, but is also probably at least a year away)

[Dan]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Justin Upton can be a real game-changer if he plays to his potential, but trading real-life players and prospects for a .785 OPS corner outfield bat is a pretty bad proposition for any team.

That's the real kicker here. He'd definitely fit in LF or maybe CF in a pinch. But really what price do the Reds pay in terms of players going forward?

[SidneySlicker]

Originally Posted by Dan

That's the real kicker here. He'd definitely fit in LF or maybe CF in a pinch. But really what price do the Reds pay in terms of players going forward?

It's all about where the players fit in to your organization. Players like SS Didi Gregorious and 1st Basmeman Neftali Soto are presumably blocked in the Reds organization. So their main value is as trade pieces, but as you said it's predecated on what you feel the player you bring in can do for you.

I think Upton would be a huge upgrade in this offense and from a value standpoing is a pretty cost effective.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by SidneySlicker

Pretty sure you wouldn't get Cargo for all of those players you mentioned, let alone him and Dexter Fowler. Cargo is probably a top 10 offensive player in the league and Fowler is solid. If the Colorado Rockies did that deal their GM should be fired immediately.

Stubbs is not a very good major league player, Heisey's a mediocre player at best. I like Lutz, but he's still relatively unknown and probably 2 years away from the Majors. So basically they'd be doing that deal for Bailey (a flyball pitcher who'd play at coors field for 81 games) and Corcino who i do like a lot, but is also probably at least a year away)

Okay. What would it take then to get Fowler and CarGo?

I view a leadoff hitter/CFer and power hitting cleanup hitter/LFer as the last 2 pieces of the offensive puzzle. I'm just trying to come up with ideas to solve the problem.

I'm tired of older retreads in LF and Stubbs in CF. Ludwick had a killer season. I don't think he can duplicate it. Fowler and CarGo are both only 26 with probably their best years ahead of them. The Reds have nearly every key position locked up long term or filled by players under control for awhile. Other than Billy Hamilton, and probably Corcino/Cingrani.......there is little to no room for anyone currently in the farm system to even reach the majors, as they would be blocked. Time to make some deals for the last pieces of the puzzle and win this thing.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Reds trade - Bailey, Corcino, Stubbs, Heisey, Lutz (future 1B to replace Helton)
Rockies trade - Fowler, CarGo

Chapman moves into Reds rotation. Reds re-sign Madson and Broxton. Cingrani in the hunt for starter position if Leake fails.

That's a ton of money to add. CarGo, Fowler, Broxton and Madson add probably close to $30M to the payroll, and CarGo is still relatively cheap with huge increases coming.

And that's assuming Colorado would even do that trade.