2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion

[Blitz Dorsey]

That steal of third is just sick. I love it.

It won't happen at the start of the 2013 season of course, but thank god we know Billy Hamilton is the Reds' CF/leadoff hitter of the future. Good-bye Drew Stubbs.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

That steal of third is just sick. I love it.

It won't happen at the start of the 2013 season of course, but thank god we know Billy Hamilton is the Reds' CF/leadoff hitter of the future. Good-bye Drew Stubbs.

He might be, but the assumption that he is going to be better than Stubbs seems a little premature.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

He might be, but the assumption that he is going to be better than Stubbs seems a little premature.

Now you're just trolling.

But I'm with you. People really need to be cautious with their expectations. If I were to guess, yeah, I think Hamilton will be at least a serviceable center fielder. It's still far from a sure thing, though. I want to see him hit a MLB breaking ball before I tab him as a surefire center fielder of the future.

[Cooper]

I'm wondering why they didn't make the change to centerfield during the season - it appears to me that getting reps would be the most important element of learning the position. I'm guessing i might be missing something from a developmental standpoint (how to call for a ball that's between zones, hitting the cut off, etc...)..what am i missing- why the wait?

[Cooper]

Anyone know how many throwing errors Hamilton has "caused"?

Ok, my math might be off, but i trying to determine the value of those SB's....so here goes:

take the caught stealings x2- subtract from total number of bases stolen and multiply it be .66? 74-155x.66 = 57 total bases ....add that to his TB total and that appears to be 272/512= .531 slugging percentage.

I tend to think he's ready from an offensive stand point - i agree with reds of 72 - that was a poor read on the fly ball to center -stubbs would've easily caught that ball standing up.

[backbencher]

Originally Posted by redsof72

As far as the catch in center, I am surprised people are making that out to be a great play. I think it demonstrates that he has a ways to go to learn to play the position. Does not break back on the ball as hard as he needed to, going back at about 75 percent, then realizes he needs to turn it on and at the last minute, lunges, catches the ball, and falls down. Should have caught the ball without too much trouble.

The play is known as a "Jim Edmonds." It leads to Gold Gloves.

[nemesis]

Originally Posted by Cooper

I'm wondering why they didn't make the change to centerfield during the season - it appears to me that getting reps would be the most important element of learning the position. I'm guessing i might be missing something from a developmental standpoint (how to call for a ball that's between zones, hitting the cut off, etc...)..what am i missing- why the wait?

Reds wanted him to focus on his plate approach this season. Switching him to CF could have hindered that. Trying to learn a new position and working on his bat could have taken away from one or both...

Plus that outfield in Bakersfield is nightmare. Not the best place to learn...

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Cooper

Anyone know how many throwing errors Hamilton has "caused"?

Ok, my math might be off, but i trying to determine the value of those SB's....so here goes:

take the caught stealings x2- subtract from total number of bases stolen and multiply it be .66? 74-155x.66 = 57 total bases ....add that to his TB total and that appears to be 272/512= .531 slugging percentage.

I tend to think he's ready from an offensive stand point - i agree with reds of 72 - that was a poor read on the fly ball to center -stubbs would've easily caught that ball standing up.

Doesn't work that way. SLG is not valuable because it tells us how many bases you acquire, it is also valuable because it tells us how many bases you can likely move up guys when you are at the plate with them on. Add in steals doesn't make that happen.

[redsof72]

Originally Posted by backbencher

The play is known as a "Jim Edmonds." It leads to Gold Gloves.

Are you saying you think that was an excellent play?

If so, I would counter that if an outfielder had to go to the ground to catch a ball that he did not go after at full speed from the get-go, then he did not play it particularly well. Not to take anything away from Hamilton. That's one play. But he needs reps out there. Imagine what his range will be when he learns to read the ball instantly off the bat, the way Stubbs does.

[medford]

Originally Posted by redsof72

Are you saying you think that was an excellent play?

If so, I would counter that if an outfielder had to go to the ground to catch a ball that he did not go after at full speed from the get-go, then he did not play it particularly well. Not to take anything away from Hamilton. That's one play. But he needs reps out there. Imagine what his range will be when he learns to read the ball instantly off the bat, the way Stubbs does.

I was going to post something similar to backbencher.

I'm pretty sure both you and he are on the exact same page and it was a subtle rip at Edmunds ability to turn the "routine" into a "gem"; at least that what I was thinking when I had that thought.

[Cooper]

Doug ....the formula takes much of what you said into effect.....it may not take everything into effect on a one to one basis (hence the .66. % of total squired).....I got it from the bill james site, but he rarely has a clue about the value of things....that's a joke.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by redsof72

Are you saying you think that was an excellent play?

If so, I would counter that if an outfielder had to go to the ground to catch a ball that he did not go after at full speed from the get-go, then he did not play it particularly well. Not to take anything away from Hamilton. That's one play. But he needs reps out there. Imagine what his range will be when he learns to read the ball instantly off the bat, the way Stubbs does.

Edmonds had a reputation for going soft on a drive to the outfield just so he could dive for it when it wasn't necessary. I'm pretty sure that's what he was alluding to.

[Cooper]

Nemesis - i never thought about the bakersfield dimensions being in play -you're right ...that field is odd and would impact his learning curve --great observation.

[redsof72]

Reds wanted to keep him at shortstop to improve his mental understanding of the overall game itself, an area they felt he needed to improve upon to be a good major leaguer, and they felt keeping him at shortstop would keep him engaged in the game mentally at all times, as opposed to standing out in the outfield. That was part of it--straight from an extremely top-level source.

Also, as stated by Nemesis, Hamilton was right on the verge of taking a big step forward as a hitter (which he did) and they wanted to let that happen without clogging up his head worrying about learning a new defensive position.

[Cooper]

Great info. Thanks 72.