What would it take to get Justin Upton?

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

How does it make it more expensive? It's guaranteed. The total is $71M. If he gets more at the backend of it, he gets a total of $71M. If he gets more at the frontend of it, he gets a total of $71M.

A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorow.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Brace yourself. The way it's looking, you're gonna have Gomes or Ludwick back in the cleanup spot or maybe Jason Bay and management crossing their fingers. Cheap, cheap, and did I say cheap will be the answer at cleanup.

You say that like Ludwick was some kind of chump last year.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

You say that like Ludwick was some kind of chump last year.

Well, I already stated earlier that Ludwick had a killer season, but I don't think he can duplicate it next season.

And I don't think Ludwick puts any fear into opposing pitchers. I'd rather have an upgrade, but I know the Reds can't afford it.

[UKFlounder]

So the faxt that they have gone the first 2 weeks of the offseaosn without a move means they will do nothing for remaining 3 months or so? Really?

Maybe time will prove you right, but it seems a bit early to be accusing this front office & owner of being cheap and unwilling to make moves.

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Brace yourself. The way it's looking, you're gonna have Gomes or Ludwick back in the cleanup spot or maybe Jason Bay and management crossing their fingers. Cheap, cheap, and did I say cheap will be the answer at cleanup.

[UKFlounder]

Know? Or think?

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Well, I already stated earlier that Ludwick had a killer season, but I don't think he can duplicate it next season.

And I don't think Ludwick puts any fear into opposing pitchers. I'd rather have an upgrade, but I know the Reds can't afford it.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by UKFlounder

So the faxt that they have gone the first 2 weeks of the offseaosn without a move means they will do nothing for remaining 3 months or so? Really?

Maybe time will prove you right, but it seems a bit early to be accusing this front office & owner of being cheap and unwilling to make moves.

I've applauded ownership/management for all their good moves, which are many.

But my obvious long term gripe (probably 3 years) is the obvious need for a legit cleanup bat and leadoff hitter. And management typically tools around with scrap heap filler types such as Corey Patterson, Willy Taveras, Gomes, Ludwick (which worked out).

Now, to give them the benefit of the doubt. We've all been longing for a TOR arm for a long time, and they went out and surprised us all and got Latos last season. Sooooooooooo, maybe this offseason they will surprise us and fill these obvious other needs (LF/CF/cleanup hitter/leadoff hitter).

Track record for LF/CF isn't that great. But maybe this is the offseason they address it.

Jocketty is clothed in secrety.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

Gregorious has been highly touted this offseason as well. I don't have the exact source (d'oh!) but I read on twitter the other day that pundits believe that if his bat progresses as anticipated, he could be a 60 player going forward, and be a high quality player for quite some time. Henry Rodriguez' bat has also been widely praised as being as close to a sure thing as any player in the Reds' system. Corcino is also highly regarded, and Stephenson has humongous upside.

While the Reds' system isn't quite overflowing in the same way that it was before the Latos trade, there is still quite a bit of quality there.

Point taken.. Gregorious is probably a coveted prospect by other teams.
The other guys would probably draw interest as well.

[Benihana]

Justin Upton has always been my #1 target for the Reds (going back to last offseason).

Assuming, as Jocketty's comments yesterday indicate, that the Reds plan to move Chapman into the rotation at some point, I'd do a deal centered around one each of Homer/Leake* and Cozart/Gregorius.

My first offer would be Leake and Gregorius, but if it required the other two instead, I'd swallow hard and pull the trigger. Especially if Ludwick wants more than 2 years or $15MM.

Then sign a closer and Sizemore to platoon/play CF until Hamilton is ready, and boom- the Reds are the favorite for the pennant.



*I'd also gauge if they were willing to take one of Cingrani/Corcino along with a guy like Lotzkar instead of Bailey as the only pitcher in the deal.

[cinreds21]

To get Justin Upton you'd have to do this:

Bailey/Leake, Cozart/Didi, Cingrani/Corcino, and Henry Rodriguez. That could be close to getting it done. You may would also have to throw in Yorman Rodriguez as well. If the deal was Bailey/Leake, Didi, Cingrani, Henry and Yoman, I'd do it in a heartbeat and not think twice.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

To get Justin Upton you'd have to do this:

Bailey/Leake, Cozart/Didi, Cingrani/Corcino, and Henry Rodriguez. That could be close to getting it done. You may would also have to throw in Yorman Rodriguez as well. If the deal was Bailey/Leake, Didi, Cingrani, Henry and Yoman, I'd do it in a heartbeat and not think twice.

Leake, DiDi, Cingrani, and the Rodriguezes I would do as well in a heartbeat. Outside of Hamilton and Stephenson, I'd happily trade any 2+ minor leaguers in the system in a deal for Upton.

Sub Bailey for Leake and I might think twice.

Leake is an Arizona guy of course, hopefully that means something to them.

[cinreds21]

I still don't think at this point trading Bailey should be a deal breaker. Yes, Bailey for the most part, had a really good season, and maybe he is turning the corner to be the Ace that everyone envisioned, but I wouldn't bet on it yet and I think you trade him now to fill a huge hole that the Reds have. If he does become that number one or number two, oh well, at least you have Justin Upton.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by cinreds21

I still don't think at this point trading Bailey should be a deal breaker. Yes, Bailey for the most part, had a really good season, and maybe he is turning the corner to be the Ace that everyone envisioned, but I wouldn't bet on it yet and I think you trade him now to fill a huge hole that the Reds have. If he does become that number one or number two, oh well, at least you have Justin Upton.

Bailey is not a dealbreaker for me- would trade him and DiDi/Cozart for Upton. Once you add 2-3 additional minor leaguers (including Cingrani) to the mix, it would give me pause and I'd MUCH rather include Leake than Bailey.

[RED VAN HOT]

I am not a big Justin Upton fan. He is at best, an average defender at a corner OF position. My sense is that he is a good offensive player who will never quite live up to the greatness one expects of a #1 overall pick. Kevin Towers is a very smart GM. Upton's name would not be out there over the last year if Towers saw him as a future elite hitter around which a team could be built. My guess is that Towers is willing to sell high on Upton if someone will pay up in premium prospects.

For me it comes down to Ludwick vs Upton in LF. Is the difference in production worth the extra money and premium players it would cost to bring in Upton? For me, it is not. The Reds are a 97 win team. Sign Ludwick. Put the resources into strengthening the pen and solving the lead off hitter problem.

It is not clear to me that Chapman will work out as a starter (though I would give it a try). If he does work out, I think Leake could benefit from a year at AAA and capable backup should a ML pitcher go to the DL. The Reds are not in a position to trade a starter. Keeping that rotation intact makes them competitive even if they do nothing else.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

I am not a big Justin Upton fan. He is at best, an average defender at a corner OF position. My sense is that he is a good offensive player who will never quite live up to the greatness one expects of a #1 overall pick. Kevin Towers is a very smart GM. Upton's name would not be out there over the last year if Towers saw him as a future elite hitter around which a team could be built. My guess is that Towers is willing to sell high on Upton if someone will pay up in premium prospects.

For me it comes down to Ludwick vs Upton in LF. Is the difference in production worth the extra money and premium players it would cost to bring in Upton? For me, it is not. The Reds are a 97 win team. Sign Ludwick. Put the resources into strengthening the pen and solving the lead off hitter problem.

It is not clear to me that Chapman will work out as a starter (though I would give it a try). If he does work out, I think Leake could benefit from a year at AAA and capable backup should a ML pitcher go to the DL. The Reds are not in a position to trade a starter. Keeping that rotation intact makes them competitive even if they do nothing else.

If you can get Ludwick for 2 years and less than $15MM, and if he continues to produce at 2012 levels for the next 2 years, then I would agree that the trade-up to Upton is not worth the cost in salary + players.

However, if Ludwick wants more than $15MM, and/or if you think there is a decent chance he could begin to decline off of his 2012 numbers to the point where he looks more like the 2011 Ludwick, then I would disagree and say that Upton is worth it,

[Scrap Irony]

I could see a Bailey/ Cozart/ Stubbs for Upton/ Gerardo Parra deal working out for both teams. But I'd sure prefer to see Leake substituted for Bailey.