Michael Bourn

[mattfeet]

I figure it's about time to start a thread about this fella since multiple outlets have said Walt has interest and will keep in touch with Boras. I highly doubt it'll come to fruition, but I wouldnt mind if it did.

Im really beginning to wonder how much money the Reds truly have available. Last year we went from:

- Not having enough to keep Votto
------ to resigning Votto to a 1/4 billion dollars
- Since we signed Votto, Phillips is gone
------ Signed DatDude to 6yr/$72MM

I think Bob is playing the markets nearly perfectly thus far and he knows he's likely to cash in when the Reds can negotiate a new deal with FSN. Anyways, on to the topic at hand, I dont know if Bourn is a great long-term fit, but Id love to see him over the next few years.

-Matt

[corkedbat]

I'd rather have Victorino or Pagan for less $$$ as a bridge to Billy than pay more for Bourn and lose the draft pick.

[mattfeet]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

I'd rather have Victorino or Pagan for less $$$ as a bridge to Billy than pay more for Bourn and lose the draft pick.

I agree. Like I said, I bet Bourn is looking for a 5 or 6 yr deal, probably similar to what Phillips received. I dont want the Reds to be on the hook for that deal, especially in the later years. Pagan would be my top choice, although I wouldn't mind Pierre for a stopgap. He'd be cheap, somewhat productive, and although a defensive liability, wouldnt hinder the payroll at all.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

I'd rather have Victorino or Pagan for less $$$ as a bridge to Billy than pay more for Bourn and lose the draft pick.

You can't plan your major league future around prospects. Prospects are great and all, but many of them never amount to squat. Just go back and look at any old 'top prospects list' and you will see plenty of guys ranked higher than Billy who never lived up to their promise.

As an example, I pulled some of my old Baseball Prospectuses off the shelf and found Jeremy Reed and Andy Marte ranked behind Joe Mauer as the top three prospects in baseball in 2004. Obviously, Mauer was legit, but those other two guys were complete flops. The following year was even worse, with Marte as the #1 prospect, Delmon Young as #2, Dallas McPherson at #4 and Casey Kotchman at #5. 2006 featured Young at #1 and Jeremy Hermida at #2.

My point is there are no 'sure things' when it comes to prospects. If the Reds can sign a quality MLB ballplayer they should. Billy will either force them to make room for him .... or he won't. Either way, signing a guy like Bourn would improve this team. If Billy forces the Reds to make a move to accommodate him, awesome. If not, no big deal, as the Reds already have an accomplished major leaguer manning CF.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

You can't plan your major league future around prospects. Prospects are great and all, but many of them never amount to squat. Just go back and look at any old 'top prospects list' and you will see plenty of guys ranked higher than Billy who never lived up to their promise.

As an example, I pulled some of my old Baseball Prospectuses off the shelf and found Jeremy Reed and Andy Marte ranked behind Joe Mauer as the top three prospects in baseball in 2004. Obviously, Mauer was legit, but those other two guys were complete flops. The following year was even worse, with Marte as the #1 prospect, Delmon Young as #2, Dallas McPherson at #4 and Casey Kotchman at #5. 2006 featured Young at #1 and Jeremy Hermida at #2.

My point is there are no 'sure things' when it comes to prospects. If the Reds can sign a quality MLB ballplayer they should. Billy will either force them to make room for him .... or he won't. Either way, signing a guy like Bourn would improve this team. If Billy forces the Reds to make a move to accommodate him, awesome. If not, no big deal, as the Reds already have an accomplished major leaguer manning CF.

Oh, it's not that I'm counting that much on Billy, just don't like Bourn enough to give him all that money and lose the pick.

[Captain Hook]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

You can't plan your major league future around prospects. Prospects are great and all, but many of them never amount to squat. Just go back and look at any old 'top prospects list' and you will see plenty of guys ranked higher than Billy who never lived up to their promise.

As an example, I pulled some of my old Baseball Prospectuses off the shelf and found Jeremy Reed and Andy Marte ranked behind Joe Mauer as the top three prospects in baseball in 2004. Obviously, Mauer was legit, but those other two guys were complete flops. The following year was even worse, with Marte as the #1 prospect, Delmon Young as #2, Dallas McPherson at #4 and Casey Kotchman at #5. 2006 featured Young at #1 and Jeremy Hermida at #2.

My point is there are no 'sure things' when it comes to prospects. If the Reds can sign a quality MLB ballplayer they should. Billy will either force them to make room for him .... or he won't. Either way, signing a guy like Bourn would improve this team. If Billy forces the Reds to make a move to accommodate him, awesome. If not, no big deal, as the Reds already have an accomplished major leaguer manning CF.

Right! What's the worse that could happen? An OF of Bourn, Hamilton and Bruce for the next four or five years is nothing to beat yourself up over.

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

Who knows ... Dusty might really want Bourn and may have requested that the Reds seriously pursue him as part of his extension last month.

This team isn't far away. Might as well seriously go for it the next couple of years.

And imagine the "Bourn Identity" T-shirts the Reds could market.

[LegallyMinded]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

I'd rather have Victorino or Pagan for less $$$ as a bridge to Billy than pay more for Bourn and lose the draft pick.

I'm with you on this one. Here's a comparison of Bourn and Victorino over the last few years. Bourn's been better recently, but I just don't see a big enough difference to justify Bourn's much higher asking price.

[Tom Servo]

Find the next Michael Bourn, don't pay top price for the older model.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by LegallyMinded

I'm with you on this one. Here's a comparison of Bourn and Victorino over the last few years. Bourn's been better recently, but I just don't see a big enough difference to justify Bourn's much higher asking price.

Bourn has accumulated roughly 4 WAR each of the past three seasons and 6 WAR this season. Each win above replacement in the majors has been worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $5 million on the open market.

That is to say that if theoretically he's asking for 5 years and $75 million or thereabouts, he would be well worth the price if he keeps doing what he's doing.

[Superdude]

The idea of a 36 year old Bourn makes me queasy. Would much rather get two years out of Victorino and part ways.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by Superdude

The idea of a 36 year old Bourn makes me queasy. Would much rather get two years out of Victorino and part ways.

I'd also rather work a trade for Span or Fowler

[Vottomatic]

Fowler is my guy, even with the Coors Field arguments. Only 26 years old. A switch hitter. High OBP.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

Oh, it's not that I'm counting that much on Billy, just don't like Bourn enough to give him all that money and lose the pick.

I can agree with that.

To be honest, I'm not set on Bourn either. Any of the guys mentioned in this thread would be a welcome addition to the Reds IMO (though I have my doubts about Fowler due to his home/road splits). I just don't want them intentionally leaving a hole on a contending team so that a prospect has an easy path to the majors. I love me some Billy Hamilton, but he could just as easily regress to being the 700 OPS guy he was in 2011 rather than moving forward as the 800 OPS guy he was in 2012.

The Reds are capable of winning NOW. There is no reason for them to be waiting on a prospect to solve their problems. They need to go out and actively plug holes on the team and deal with the pleasant 'problem' of making room for Billy if/when he forces the issue.

[Benihana]

There are 10 things I'd rather see the Reds do before signing Michael Bourn to a $70MM+ contract.

J.Upton, Ellsbury, Fowler, Hunter, Swisher, Ludwick, Youkilis, just to name a few.