What would it take to get Justin Upton?

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by mth123

Andrus, Olt. Perez would do that.

That tops anything the Reds can offer--but would the Rangers do that?

[mth123]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

That tops anything the Reds can offer--but would the Rangers do that?

If I was the Rangers, I wouldn't. OTOH, if I was the D-Backs I wouldn't take much less and certainly wouldn't drop as far as a 5th starter who we want to replace and a SS who we want to deal to make way for a kid who had never topped a .750 OPS in the minor leagues. I'd just keep Upton.

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by mth123

If I was the Rangers, I wouldn't. OTOH, if I was the D-Backs I wouldn't take much less and certainly wouldn't drop as far as a 5th starter who we want to replace and a SS who we want to deal to make way for a kid who had never topped a .750 OPS in the minor leagues. I'd just keep Upton.

I don't think the Rangers would part with Olt AND Perez.

I get that you don't think they'd take Leake--but what about Bailey/Cozart/Cingrani/Rodriguez?

[corkedbat]

Reports say that the Rangers said neither Profar or Andrus would be included and talks with the D'Back were over. Things can change though.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

I don't think the Rangers would part with Olt AND Perez.

I get that you don't think they'd take Leake--but what about Bailey/Cozart/Cingrani/Rodriguez?

If they think Cingrani is for real maybe.

Even for Olt, Andrus and Perez, Upton is still the best player in the deal by far. Olt looks like a six hole hitter or maybe a 5 hole on a bad team. He plays a scarce position at the moment so that gives him a little more value. Andrus is very good lead-off/role player who excels at a premium position. Perez is still a question mark. His AAA ERA is 4.86 in 176 IP. He's young and very prominsing and would be the reason the D-Backs would do it IMO, but he's not a sure thing or an established TOR starter as the article states.

Upton is still pretty young himself.

[Kc61]

I've really come around on the Upton idea. The more I think about it, the more I hope the Reds go for him.

I think the deal would require Cozart, Leake, and Corcino. Maybe Heisey too. I think I would do it if that's the ballpark compensation for Upton in a trade.

Reds won't drop a wad of money or prospects for CF. Hamilton is the CFer of the future. So the guy they get for CF is a stopgap. Maybe a Victorino or a Crisp or someone like that. Trash them if you want, but this is Billy Hamilton's position, so any acquisition is a one-year fix.

A legitimate RH power hitter is a need. Ludwick is an acceptable answer IMO. But Upton is a better one and the Reds do have the young players to get him. If they can afford to pay him, he would upgrade the offense. He is not only a power hitter but he is a well rounded hitter who has, among other things, a good BA most years.

If the Reds make this deal they will either give Chapman a starting spot, or Cingrani, or they will acquire somebody for the rotation. A fifth starter. If Chappy starts, they will need to get a closer.

It would also mean Didi becomes the Reds SS. It's worth it, even if doesn't hit too much, because Upton compensates in the batting order.

So, I'm on the bandwagon. Let's get Upton, and we can fill in the open spots with other solid additions.

[*BaseClogger*]

One thing to consider: by including Bailey instead of Leake, the Reds don't devour all of their budget. Bailey is set to to make a few million bucks in 2013, and if it helps the team keep a prospect out of the trade and correspondingly sign a free agent or two, it might be worth it...

[757690]

Originally Posted by *BaseClogger*

One thing to consider: by including Bailey instead of Leake, the Reds don't devour all of their budget. Bailey is set to to make a few million bucks in 2013, and if it helps the team keep a prospect out of the trade and correspondingly sign a free agent or two, it might be worth it...

I imagine any trade for Justin Upton would have to include Bailey, not just because it makes the most sense for the Reds, but because it's who the D-Backs would demand.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by 757690

I imagine any trade for Justin Upton would have to include Bailey, not just because it makes the most sense for the Reds, but because it's who the D-Backs would demand.

Here is what I think the D-Backs would need to deal Upton to the Reds:

1. Latos and Cozart

2. Cueto, Cozart and Marshall

3. Bailey, Cozart and Hamilton

They might take Didi instead of Cozart. I don't think deals for other guys are even anything they'd consider (except possibly for Todd Frazier or Aroldis Chapman instead of one of the others). They aren't going to deal Upton for cast-offs like Stubbs, Heisey or Leake. Acquiring Upton will probably hurt.

[jhu1321]

Originally Posted by mth123

Here is what I think the D-Backs would need to deal Upton to the Reds:

1. Latos and Cozart

2. Cueto, Cozart and Marshall

3. Bailey, Cozart and Hamilton

They might take Didi instead of Cozart. I don't think deals for other guys are even anything they'd consider (except possibly for Todd Frazier or Aroldis Chapman instead of one of the others). They aren't going to deal Upton for cast-offs like Stubbs, Heisey or Leake. Acquiring Upton will probably hurt.

Well then Upton will be in their team next year. Nobody is going to give that kind of a package.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by jhu1321

Well then Upton will be in their team next year. Nobody is going to give that kind of a package.

I think so too. They don't have to deal him, but they will if it remakes the franchise. Otherwise, he stays put.

[757690]

Originally Posted by mth123

I think so too. They don't have to deal him, but they will if it remakes the franchise. Otherwise, he stays put.

I think that they think they do, if that makes any sense, lol. They have been trying to trade him for awhile now, surrounded by rumors of then not being happy with his attitude and clubhouse effect. He also is due to make $40M over the next three years, which lowers his trade value.

It will be a solid middle of the rotation starter, a shortstop ready to start in 2013, and filler.

Bailey, Cozart, and Yorman should do it. No one will offer more, nor should they.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by 757690

I think that they think they do, if that makes any sense, lol. They have been trying to trade him for awhile now, surrounded by rumors of then not being happy with his attitude and clubhouse effect. He also is due to make $40M over the next three years, which lowers his trade value.

It will be a solid middle of the rotation starter, a shortstop ready to start in 2013, and filler.

Bailey, Cozart, and Yorman should do it. No one will offer more, nor should they.

I love how the article says it will take a TOR starter and an everyday player and everybody thinks we can get him for Mike Leake or Homer Bailey. Which Rotation are they the top of? I'm a big Bailey fan and was telling this board they were wrong when the groupthink wanted to deal him for very little. He has two years of control left. Is he the centerpiece in a deal to acquire a franchise player?

As for Upton's contract, its pretty reasonable for a 25 year old with his resume.

I repeat, if you, as a Reds' fan, would not deal Jay Bruce for any proposed package, I highly doubt the D-Backs would spend much time thinking about it for Upton. It could be Bailey if the other players are pretty high caliber. It won't be Leake, Stubbs, Heisey, etc. I think Cozart or Didi would be a solid part of a deal for them. Maybe Frazier instead if they are content with a 3B instead of a SS. Bailey is a cut below what they'd be looking for and doesn't really have enough years of control left. If they take him as the arm, they'll need to add a third name of significance. You won't be able to tack on a throw in.

I wouldn't deal Bruce for Bailey, Cozart and Yorman.

[757690]

Originally Posted by mth123

I love how the article says it will take a TOR starter and an everyday player and everybody thinks we can get him for Mike Leake or Homer Bailey. Which Rotation are they the top of? I'm a big Bailey fan and was telling this board they were wrong when the groupthink wanted to deal him for very little. He has two years of control left. Is he the centerpiece in a deal to acquire a franchise player?

As for Upton's contract, its pretty reasonable for a 25 year old with his resume.

I repeat, if you, as a Reds' fan, would not deal Jay Bruce for any proposed package, I highly doubt the D-Backs would spend much time thinking about it for Upton. It could be Bailey if the other players are pretty high caliber. It won't be Leake, Stubbs, Heisey, etc. I think Cozart or Didi would be a solid part of a deal for them. Maybe Frazier instead if they are content with a 3B instead of a SS. Bailey is a cut below what they'd be looking for and doesn't really have enough years of control left. If they take him as the arm, they'll need to add a third name of significance. You won't be able to tack on a throw in.

I wouldn't deal Bruce for Bailey, Cozart and Yorman.

First, the article said a TOR pitcher or an everyday position player, not both.

Second, Reds aren't unhappy with Bruce, and haven't been trying to trade him for the last few years. There have been a lot of stories about Upton not being dedicated to the game. True or not, it seems like the D-Baxks believe them. That significantly lowers his value.

The fact that the Rangers won't give up one of their two SS for him says it all. His value has dropped.

[*BaseClogger*]

Originally Posted by 757690

First, the article said a TOR pitcher or an everyday position player, not both.

Second, Reds aren't unhappy with Bruce, and haven't been trying to trade him for the last few years. There have been a lot of stories about Upton not being dedicated to the game. True or not, it seems like the D-Baxks believe them. That significantly lowers his value.

The fact that the Rangers won't give up one of their two SS for him says it all. His value has dropped.

Not to mention Bruce has a more reasonable contract. Bruce still has four years with an average salary of $10.5MM left, while Upton has three years at an average of $12.75MM...