Free Agents Frenzy Starts here

[Tom Servo]

Originally Posted by Gallen5862

Should the Reds consider claiming Volstad?

Nah.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

As I said. Reds fans tend to undervalue our prospects and overvalue everyone else's.

x2 I think you have this backwards.

People around here go up in arms about guys that are throw-ins to deals (ie Josh Roenicke, Donnie Joseph, JC Sulbaran) and have an absolute fit if we consider trading an actual prospect (Zach Stewart), unless it's an asset like Latos coming back.

Look at the reaction to the Rolen and Broxton trades. Some people wouldn't trade Billy Hamilton for anyone. Guess what? Myers is a better prospect than Hamilton.

[Spitball]

Originally Posted by Benihana

x2 I think you have this backwards.

People around here go up in arms about guys that are throw-ins to deals (ie Josh Roenicke, Donnie Joseph, JC Sulbaran) and have an absolute fit if we consider trading an actual prospect (Zach Stewart), unless it's an asset like Latos coming back.

Look at the reaction to the Rolen and Broxton trades. Some people wouldn't trade Billy Hamilton for anyone. Guess what? Myers is a better prospect than Hamilton.

Exactly. Most fans overvalue their hometeam's prospects. Myers is a better prospect than anyone in the Reds' system, and I base that on independant and unbiased rankings like the one below.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

[Vottomatic]

Yet over half our 25 man roster is filled with homegrown drafted and developed talent.

The Reds farm system is doing a great job. I wouldn't be so quick to give on talent that could fill a need. I have no problem in trading guys who are blocked, such as Didi.

Arroyo will be gone after 2013. Cingrani or Corcino will be needed.

And plenty of guys who lit up the minors failed in the majors.

It just seems that many are saying it's engraved in stone that Myers will be a star.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Yet over half our 25 man roster is filled with homegrown drafted and developed talent.

The Reds farm system is doing a great job. I wouldn't be so quick to give on talent that could fill a need. I have no problem in trading guys who are blocked, such as Didi.

Arroyo will be gone after 2013. Cingrani or Corcino will be needed.

And plenty of guys who lit up the minors failed in the majors.

It just seems that many are saying it's engraved in stone that Myers will be a star.

Yet the fact that he might not be one doesn't mean that he can't be one, and the possibility that he might be a star is what you're actually paying for.

[Spitball]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

It just seems that many are saying it's engraved in stone that Myers will be a star.

No, that is not what many are saying. We are saying that Myers is projected as having a very good chance of being a successful major leaguer based on minor league statistics and unbiased projections by national experts. Although I respect your opinion, I do not think your evaluation of the Reds' prospects is unbiased.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by Spitball

No, that is not what many are saying. We are saying that Myers is projected as having a very good chance of being a successful major leaguer based on minor league statistics and unbiased projections by national experts. Although I respect your opinion, I do not think your evaluation of the Reds' prospects is unbiased.

I guess I find this message board inconsistent.

Last season, me and someone else said the Reds should go after Adam Eaton as a leadoff guy. Eaton pretty much had a solid minor league career with a consistently good batting average and OBP. The naysayers said he was hitting in the PCL, a hitter's league, and that his numbers were inflated.

And again, I'd take Myers in a heartbeat. But the proposals I've seen are overpayment.

[nate]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I guess I find this message board inconsistent.

Why would you expect consistency from a group of individuals each with their own opinion?

To me, that would be pretty boring.

But the threads would be shorter!

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I guess I find this message board inconsistent.

Last season, me and someone else said the Reds should go after Adam Eaton as a leadoff guy. Eaton pretty much had a solid minor league career with a consistently good batting average and OBP. The naysayers said he was hitting in the PCL, a hitter's league, and that his numbers were inflated.

And again, I'd take Myers in a heartbeat. But the proposals I've seen are overpayment.

I can't speak of the whole board, but you are right in saying that I personally view Adam Eaton and Wil Myers differently, but it is not due to inconsistency at all.

First, Wil Myers has a much better pedigree/scouting profile than Adam Eaton. Wil was a third round pick out of high school, while Adam came from an unheralded program in the 19th round.

Second, while the career slash lines of Adam Eaton and Wil Myers are similar, you have to remember that Eaton was roughly three years older per stop than Myers. That makes a major difference.

Also, the unbiased prospect experts may be wrong occasionally, but they have way more access to inside information than you or I. The fact that they have Wil Myers ranked as a top 30 prospect in the game before this year and then he tore it up this year, means he is likely a top 10 prospect in the game again. Eaton has never been ranked on a major publication's prospect list.

The question to me about Myers is not if he will hit, but when. The Reds are built to win today. Can he have a Kearns/Dunn like rookie year and OPS 900+ his rookie year or will it take a few years like Jay Bruce? The Reds need immediate results. That is why I would offer any package first for Stanton before Myers, but they both fill the same hole and allow the Reds the payroll flexibility to fill in the bullpen and maybe improve the leadoff spot.

[RedlegJake]

I was one who wanted Eaton but as a diffrrent player than Myers, Eatons entire value rests on obp
He will never have Myers power. Plus Eaton has a wide split which
Wasnt ideal. Myers is vastly better. Eaton, I believed last year might have
Helped in leadoff but once Lud began raking there was no place for him. At the
Time I wanted Eaton Ryan was still scuffling. I would take
Myers over Lud in a heartbeat tho. Cost and future upside
Are all on Myers side. As a top ten MLB prospect I dont view these proposals as overpay at all.

[MikeThierry]

Question to everyone. What is a good indication that a prospect will be likely to succeed? Is it a low strikeout rate like Oscar Taveras has (11% I believe) or is it a guy that has a ton of power like Myers does? Is there any one stat I can look at and say "this guy is going to be great"? What is something that translates to the MLB level?

[MikeThierry]

Wait, his name isn't Oscar Taveras, it's Minor League Guy

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-31751_16...er-with-names/

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by RedlegJake

I was one who wanted Eaton but as a diffrrent player than Myers, Eatons entire value rests on obp
He will never have Myers power. Plus Eaton has a wide split which
Wasnt ideal. Myers is vastly better. Eaton, I believed last year might have
Helped in leadoff but once Lud began raking there was no place for him. At the
Time I wanted Eaton Ryan was still scuffling. I would take
Myers over Lud in a heartbeat tho. Cost and future upside
Are all on Myers side. As a top ten MLB prospect I dont view these proposals as overpay at all.

Apples to Oranges.

I was interested in Eaton as a replacement for Stubbs. High OBP and good batting average. Totally different than Myers.

Myers would be a cleanup-type hitter, and plant himself in LF. We haven't had a solution for LF or cleanup yet.

If everyone is so certain Myers will be a stud, then.....
....... Considering Reds management wants Chapman in the rotation, one of either Leake or Bailey gets supplanted.
........I'd rather they take Leake, but with Bailey's strong season, and especially is very strong impressive finish, I think Bailey would be the most doable, having raised his value tremendously.

And I don't see why you'd have to trade anything with him. You're trading a solid, improving major league starting pitcher, still somewhat under control, still young, for a top prospect.

Bailey for Myers.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Apples to Oranges.

I was interested in Eaton as a replacement for Stubbs. High OBP and good batting average. Totally different than Myers.

Myers would be a cleanup-type hitter, and plant himself in LF. We haven't had a solution for LF or cleanup yet.

If everyone is so certain Myers will be a stud, then.....
....... Considering Reds management wants Chapman in the rotation, one of either Leake or Bailey gets supplanted.
........I'd rather they take Leake, but with Bailey's strong season, and especially is very strong impressive finish, I think Bailey would be the most doable, having raised his value tremendously.

And I don't see why you'd have to trade anything with him. You're trading a solid, improving major league starting pitcher, still somewhat under control, still young, for a top prospect.

Bailey for Myers.

If you are trying to win now, why are you dealing your third best starter? Even then, Bailey is not that interesting to the Royals because he is under team control for only two more years and is going to be much more expensive those two years than Leake will. Leake is under control for three years and will be cheaper. Plus, Corcino may be able to step into their rotation sometime during 2013 and Lotzkar is there for depth as well. Corcino, Lotzkar and Leake is the kind of package that the Royals would be looking for because it is major league ready pitching and more of it than just Bailey. The Reds would be trading from a pitching surplus to fill a major hole with a high upside talent for a very low $ cost. Seems like a great deal for both sides.

Bailey just isn't what the Royals are likely looking for.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

If you are trying to win now, why are you dealing your third best starter? Even then, Bailey is not that interesting to the Royals because he is under team control for only two more years and is going to be much more expensive those two years than Leake will. Leake is under control for three years and will be cheaper. Plus, Corcino may be able to step into their rotation sometime during 2013 and Lotzkar is there for depth as well. Corcino, Lotzkar and Leake is the kind of package that the Royals would be looking for because it is major league ready pitching and more of it than just Bailey. The Reds would be trading from a pitching surplus to fill a major hole with a high upside talent for a very low $ cost. Seems like a great deal for both sides.

Bailey just isn't what the Royals are likely looking for.

And Arroyo has to be replaced after next season and you've just traded away his potential replacements. And inexpensive has to be considered since it's the Reds.

If Bailey is our third best starter, and Leake might be the odd man out if Chapman were moved to the rotation, why would KC want Leake over Bailey? makes no sense to me.

Bailey trending upwards. Leake had a season trending downwards.

Sure, give them Leake instead. If they are that stupid, let them be.