The Twins make the most sense

[lollipopcurve]

Looking at possible trade partners for the Reds, it seems obvious to me that the best matchup is Minnesota. Consider:

Twins are woefully short in starting pitching.

Twins lack a SS.

Twins have a RH power hitting LF who hit 4th last year and went 35 HR and 100+ RBI in a pitchers park who is signed to a reasonable 2-year deal -- Willingham.

Twins have a surplus of leadoff-hitting OF talent -- Span, Revere, Hicks (still in upper minors, but coming along nicely).

If I'm betting, I say Jocketty and Terry Ryan get something done.

[Vottomatic]

Meh. You could say that about the Rockies, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, and Indians too, who all finished in the bottom of the team pitching stats.

Rockies? Fowler.
Indians? Choo.
Red Sox? Ellsbury.

A new article by Yahoo's Jeff Passan says that if the Marlins are really serious about rebuilding then Stanton should be on the trading block. Wouldn't that be nice.

[lollipopcurve]

You could say that about the Rockies, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, and Indians too

Take a look at the starting staffs and the shortstops on those rosters and tell me they look like what the Twins have.

[mth123]

Dejesus - $4.25 Million
Span - $4.75 Million
Choo - Arb eligible $7 Million?
Fowler - Arb Eligible $5 Million?
Ellsbury - Arb Eligible $10 Million?
Victorino = ????
Upton - No way
Bourn - No way
Pagan - No way

The Reds need 5 players IMO:

1. A Centerfield/lead-off upgrade
2. A Reliever for the late innings to allow Chapman to start
3. A starting caliber player for LF or 3B who can add pop
4. A Corner bench player who can add some offense
5. A MI who can back-up at SS.

The budget is going to dictate a lot of stuff. I'm guessing the Reds only have about $5 to $8 Million to fill those needs. It may require Chapman staying in the pen and a minor league free agent for the MI role (or Didi). If Rolen comes back, say for around $2.5 to $3 Million, the Reds will need to add a guy to split time with him and Frazier could fill the LF role (or a part time OF with Frazier moving between 3B and LF). That would leave less than $5 Million for CF. Even then, it may require the Reds finding a taker for Masset and Arredondo to make some room in the budget. Might need to send a minor leaguer with some promise with them just to get them off the books.

Might need to look at cheaper platoon options. Roger Bernadina or the previously mentioned Ben Revere might be flawed but usable choices who marginally improve the Cf situation against RHP over Stubbs' obvious flaws.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by mth123

Dejesus - $4.25 Million
Span - $4.75 Million
Choo - Arb eligible $7 Million?
Fowler - Arb Eligible $5 Million?
Ellsbury - Arb Eligible $10 Million?
Victorino = ????
Upton - No way
Bourn - No way

The Reds need 5 players IMO:

1. A Centerfield/lead-off upgrade
2. A Reliever for the late innings to allow Chapman to start
3. A starting caliber player for LF or 3B who can add pop
4. A Corner bench player who can add some offense
5. A MI who can back-up at SS.

The budget is going to dictate a lot of stuff. I'm guessing the Reds only have about $5 to $8 Million to fill those needs. It may require Chapman staying in the pen and a minor league free agent for the MI role (or Didi). If Rolen comes back, say for around $2.5 to $3 Million, the Reds will need to add a guy to split time with him and Frazier could fill the LF role (or a part time OF with Frazier moving between 3B and LF). That would leave less than $5 Million for CF. Even then, it may require the Reds finding a taker for Masset and Arredondo to make some room in the budget. Might need to send a minor leaguer with some promise with them just to get them off the books.

Might need to look at cheaper platoon options. Roger Bernadina or the previously mentioned Ben Revere might be flawed but usable choices who marginally improve the Cf situation against RHP over Stubbs' obvious flaws.

Too many baked in assumptions in this post IMO. The $5-$8mm number is out of thin air- I could see the Reds adding $15mm with the TV revenues ramping up, but of course who knows. I also don't believe #4 and #5 on your list should require anything over $1mm each, and I definitely wouldn't give Rolen $3mm. Id take him back at half of that amount, tops. Otherwise he can retire (I doubt he's going to go somewhere else for an extra $1mm at this point in his life.)

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Too many baked in assumptions in this post IMO. The $5-$8mm number is out of thin air- I could see the Reds adding $15mm with the TV revenues ramping up, but of course who knows. I also don't believe #4 and #5 on your list should require anything over $1mm each, and I definitely wouldn't give Rolen $3mm. Id take him back at half of that amount, tops. Otherwise he can retire (I doubt he's going to go somewhere else for an extra $1mm at this point in his life.)

Not thin air.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...cardinals.html

John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer sees the Reds' 2013 payroll being $92MM, but a team insider tells him the actual number could start with an eight.

I have the Reds already at about $90 Million, as is, when all bonus money and buy-outs are added in. $5 to $8 Million seems optimistic at this point, but since the reds have been rumored as kicking the tires on guys like Soria and Ludwick, I'm guessing there is some to spend.

BTW, IIRC the national TV money doesn't ramp up until 2014 and the local money is locked in until 2016.

[CySeymour]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Looking at possible trade partners for the Reds, it seems obvious to me that the best matchup is Minnesota. Consider:

Twins are woefully short in starting pitching.

Twins lack a SS.

Twins have a RH power hitting LF who hit 4th last year and went 35 HR and 100+ RBI in a pitchers park who is signed to a reasonable 2-year deal -- Willingham.

Twins have a surplus of leadoff-hitting OF talent -- Span, Revere, Hicks (still in upper minors, but coming along nicely).

If I'm betting, I say Jocketty and Terry Ryan get something done.

My guess is he would only deal for Willingham or Span if he could extend them. Probably not the best idea to part with good assets for one year solutions.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by CySeymour

My guess is he would only deal for Willingham or Span if he could extend them. Probably not the best idea to part with good assets for one year solutions.

Extend and restucture in a way that defers some of the 2013 money into future seasons IMO.

[Kc61]

With the need in CF it's expected that people would discuss Span and Fowler. I hope the Reds stay away.

Reds should go for a short term, or low cost option for CF. This is Billy Hamilton's position and there's no need for a long term, expensive answer.

LF is far more of an issue. There is no hot prospect to fill LF. Ludwick is a free agent. The middle of the order needs a righty bat to hit with Votto and Bruce.

IMO a Willingham would be terrific for the Reds. If it takes some money or prospects to get him, I'd consider it. Re-signing Ludwick would also be reasonable.

The Chapman situation and the bench infielders also will require some activity.

But the Reds should be cautious about CF, Billy is on the way.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Kc61

With the need in CF it's expected that people would discuss Span and Fowler. I hope the Reds stay away.

Reds should go for a short term, or low cost option for CF. This is Billy Hamilton's position and there's no need for a long term, expensive answer.

LF is far more of an issue. There is no hot prospect to fill LF. Ludwick is a free agent. The middle of the order needs a righty bat to hit with Votto and Bruce.

IMO a Willingham would be terrific for the Reds. If it takes some money or prospects to get him, I'd consider it. Re-signing Ludwick would also be reasonable.

The Chapman situation and the bench infielders also will require some activity.

But the Reds should be cautious about CF, Billy is on the way.

Mostly agree, which is why I like Dejesus as a stopgap to play CF and lead-off against RHP. It shouldn't take a ton to get him and he'd be a real upgrade.

In LF, I'm starting to think Frazier might be the best option, though I fear a drop-off as a 2nd year guy. If Rolen comes back for cheap and the Reds can acquire a LH bat to split time with him, that may be a cheap way to get by for a year until the budget loosens up with new TV money, Arroyo and Masset off the books and Votto dropping back to $12 Million in 2014. The Reds could probably splurge a little after 2013.

[lollipopcurve]

But the Reds should be cautious about CF, Billy is on the way.

I'd have to agree with this in principle, but the devil is in the details. When will he be ready? Is the team willing to go with a poor CF (Stubbs is in that category right now, unfortunately) in 2013 just to avoid having a redundancy in 2014? A guy like Span, under contract for 2 years, might give them a boost in 2013 and he would retain some trade value thereafter.

Still, I agree that the team should not give up a Cozart or Bailey for a short-term CF solution like Span. Willingham, under contract for 2 years and possibly extendable beyond that, is a different story. I like him better than Ludwick, and by a pretty significant margin.

[corkedbat]

If Ludwick's price is beyond $7M, I'd love to see them land Willingham. I'd really like to see an order of:

CF Dexter Fowler
2B Brandon Phillips
1B Joey Votto
LF Josh Willingham
RF Jay Bruce
3B Todd Frazier
SS Zach Cozart (or) Didi Gregorious
CA Ryan Hanigan

Not holding my breath though.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Espn posted this today...Sweetspot speculations for big trades

Cincinnati Reds trade CF Billy Hamilton, C Devin Mesoraco, RHP Mike Leake, RHP Sam LeCure and RHP Daniel Corcino to the Minnesota Twins for CF Denard Span, LF Josh Willingham, IF Jamey Carroll and IF Daniel Santana.

The Reds are in win-now mode, and as exciting a prospect as Hamilton is, what is he? A shortstop in the minors, he’s being moved to center field. He has some hitting and on-base skills, but no power, and his adjustment to major league pitching may take a couple of years. As is, he needs a year in Triple-A.

Span gives the Reds the immediate help they need in center field and the top of the order, while fitting nicely into the Reds’ budget. Instead of re-signing Ryan Ludwick, a good bet to regress from his 2012 numbers, Willingham is brought in and Carroll gives the team a better spare infielder than the Miguel Cairo/Wilson Valdez disaster of 2012.

As the Twins rebuild, depth is a priority. They have several good-looking hitting prospects on the way up, but little in the way of pitching. Leake and LeCure are solid back-of the-rotation arms -- which means they’re front-of-the-rotation arms for the Twins. Corcino is a decent pitching prospect who could be ready sometime in 2013. Mesoraco’s status lost some luster in 2012, and the Reds are better off sticking with Ryan Hanigan behind the plate, so he becomes Joe Mauer insurance in Minnesota.

Sorry...no way in heck I'm doing that deal.

[757690]

Originally Posted by mth123

Not thin air.

The difference between thin air and Fay as your source is negligible.

But I think you're in the ballpark concerning the payroll. Given the right circumstances, it might get close to $100M, but they'll probably keep it under $95M.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Espn posted this today...Sweetspot speculations for big trades



Sorry...no way in heck I'm doing that deal.

Completely agree. And I have this theory about Hamilton. He is close to untouchable. Reds wouldn't trade him for Buster Posey. Or Justin Verlander. Or maybe even this Trout fellow. Nobody.

What the ESPN article ignores is marketing potential. Billy Hamilton is a potential gold mine. He is the most exciting prospect in baseball. A rare prospect because of the excitement factor.

I can see this player boosting TV revenues, home attendance, network coverage, road attendance, you name it.

Whenever I see a trade rumor including Hamilton, I laugh, because it always ignores this factor. A team like the Reds, having tried to boost attendance for many years, cannot let this guy go.

Yes, he's a prospect, he can fail. It's something of a risk. But if Billy turns out to be good, and his legs stay healthy, this guy can single handedly boost this franchise. My guess is the Reds wouldn't trade him for the Twins package - or any package the Twins could put together.

P.S. Ok, if Posey or Trout is available, then I could see them making an exception. Sure.