Billy Hamilton named top prospect from the AFL

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

And most Major Leaguers can hit that pitch over the fence.

Michael Bourn couldn't up until last year, but he wasn't getting BP fastballs. Do you think ego could play into it? Maybe a lot of pitchers aren't too keen to the idea of letting a guy like Bourn or Hamilton take their best hack at a hitters pitch.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

And Hamilton would drive it to the wall for a bases clearing double with runners on, or a triple maybe even a ITPHR without runners.

I've read two of the more ridiculous assertions I've ever read on RedsZone in this thread and they are 1, that a pitcher does not care about giving up a double, and 2, that Billy Hamilton could not AT LEAST hit a fastball dead down the middle for a line drive.

I don't think anyone has said Hamilton couldn't hit a dead down the middle fastball for a line drive. But I have seen plenty of guys miss that pitch too. It isn't that Hamilton can't hit it, it is that pitchers shouldn't be scared to throw it to him. Of course pitchers CARE about giving up a double, but Billy Hamilton isn't out there pounding out extra-base hits. He played in two very friendly hitter parks this season and didn't have 40 XBH with 600 trips to the plate.

I am done arguing about this. Pitchers shouldn't fear throwing pitches to Hamilton that they should fear throwing most other Major Leaguers because he can't do with it what they can. Because of that, I think we need to take more of a wait and see with his walk rate.

[kpresidente]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

How people can continue to sit back and say he has power boggles my mind. He doesn't. At all. Yes, he has more power than Norris Hopper did.

I'll take Norris Hopper's OBP from Hamilton

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't think they fear Bourn either. That wasn't really my point, it was that we know that Bourn was able to translate his skills and we don't know if Hamilton can yet. .

If he can hit ML pitching for a decent average, he will get his share of walks, due to his good batting eye. If ML pitchers can overpower him or find a hole, then I agree with you Doug, the selective batting eye isn't as useful. The same could be said for any prospect.

Most pitchers do not want to put a speedy guy like Hamilton on base (especially to lead off the game).. He should get decent pitches to hit, even though he has no power.

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Most pitchers do not want to put a speedy guy like Hamilton on base (especially to lead off the game).. He should get decent pitches to hit, even though he has no power.

I think that's the whole point. If pitchers make him earn his way on, Hamilton hasn't yet displayed the kind of contact ability to hold up a decent OBP on batting average alone.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Superdude

I think that's the whole point. If pitchers make him earn his way on, Hamilton hasn't yet displayed the kind of contact ability to hold up a decent OBP on batting average alone.

I guess I am talking in a general sense.

Think about Anderson Machado (painful memory, I know). He had a high BB rate in the minors, but it dropped off in the majors because he could not hit ML pitching.

I have no numbers to back this up, but here's my theory on walks.
Some situations, the pitcher doesn't mind walking the batter.. (like walking Hannigan with men in scoring position with pitcher on deck, walking Dunn when he's the go ahead runner and EdE is on deck)... However, most pitchers try to minimize walks... So if a hitter has a good batting eye and can competently handle ML pitching, he will get his share of walks.

Now, I don't know if Billy will be able to handle ML pitching for sure, but I'm optimistic. I don't think a pitcher will want to walk him under any circumstances due to his speed, but I think he will get his share of unintentional walks (like most hitters). His minor league numbers seems to indicate that he takes a lot of pitches and shows patience. That's promising.
If Billy has a hole in his swing that ML pitchers can exploit, then his batting eye won't make a difference.. ML pitchers will exploit that, and he won't get many walks.

So in other words, I don't think Billy's lack of power will hurt his OBP at all.
Naturally, he'll walk less than Votto, but there's no reason that he can't walk at the rate of an average ML player (or perhaps slightly better). So, I guess I am partially agreeing with you and Doug.. He's not going to be elite at drawing walks, but he should be fine.

[Hoosier Red]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

Now, I don't know if Billy will be able to handle ML pitching for sure, but I'm optimistic. I don't think a pitcher will want to walk him under any circumstances due to his speed, but I think he will get his share of unintentional walks (like most hitters). His minor league numbers seems to indicate that he takes a lot of pitches and shows patience. That's promising.
If Billy has a hole in his swing that ML pitchers can exploit, then his batting eye won't make a difference.. ML pitchers will exploit that, and he won't get many walks.

I basically agree with this assessment. I think a lot of it has to do with a pitcher's willingness to challenge him.

When a pitcher is facing Joey Votto, especially with a runner on base, the pitcher knows he better "paint it black" because any pitch that sees too much of the plate is liable to get deposited in the home bullpen at GABP. Of course not every pitch will be so violently sent back, but a large enough number of them will that a pitcher knows if he's going to err, it will be on the outside of the strikezone. If a pitcher gets through an at bat with Votto and walks him, it's often times the "least bad" thing that can happen.

With Hamilton on the other hand, a walk is often times the worst thing that can happen. It puts him on base, he's liable to steal a bag, or two, and all of a sudden, a walk is a triple. So a pitcher is not as likely to be pitching to the absolute corners of the strike zone, instead, if he misses his location, he'll miss in the strike zone until Hamilton shows that Hamilton hitting is more fearsome than Hamilton watching.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by Hoosier Red

I basically agree with this assessment. I think a lot of it has to do with a pitcher's willingness to challenge him.

When a pitcher is facing Joey Votto, especially with a runner on base, the pitcher knows he better "paint it black" because any pitch that sees too much of the plate is liable to get deposited in the home bullpen at GABP. Of course not every pitch will be so violently sent back, but a large enough number of them will that a pitcher knows if he's going to err, it will be on the outside of the strikezone. If a pitcher gets through an at bat with Votto and walks him, it's often times the "least bad" thing that can happen.

With Hamilton on the other hand, a walk is often times the worst thing that can happen. It puts him on base, he's liable to steal a bag, or two, and all of a sudden, a walk is a triple. So a pitcher is not as likely to be pitching to the absolute corners of the strike zone, instead, if he misses his location, he'll miss in the strike zone until Hamilton shows that Hamilton hitting is more fearsome than Hamilton watching.

I really don't understand how pitchers throwing Hamilton meatballs over the middle of the plate is a BAD thing. If they want to do that .... awesome. Even a mediocre major league hitter can hit pitches down the middle of the plate. Billy just might win a batting title if they consistently feed him meatballs because they are scared of walking him.

[IslandRed]

Yeah. Hamilton may not have any power but he doesn't have a slap-hitter's plate approach for the most part. He's got some patience, and working deep into counts is going to lead to both walks and strikeouts, as others have pointed out. If pitchers aggressively pound the zone on him and he adjusts, the walks will go down but so too should the strikeouts, if he's getting more hittable pitches and not getting to two strikes as often.

Which is a long-winded way of saying "danged if I know how it's going to turn out."