The Twins make the most sense

[mth123]

Just looked at this again. I think you guys are right and that it would be an overpay. I had it in my head that Olt was farther along in his development than he is. I'd still like to get Ogando and Olt, but if Mes is an overpay, I'm not sure they match up so well.

If Texas is still looking for a SS, a deal involvng Didi for either would be a good idea IMO, but I'd guess that the Rangers would want more. I'm actually more interested in Ogando than Olt. I think he's the perfect power arm to close and allow Chapman to start. If they could add one for the minimum while keeping Leake as the 6th starter, it would be ideal.

[REDREAD]

I wonder if the Twins will be more realistic on their asking prices for Span and Willingham this winter.

I remember some writer saying that at last year's trading deadline that the prices for both these guys was "through the roof"..

Kind of a shame that we weren't able to snag Willingham as a FA, although if I remember, he signed quite early and the Reds main prioirty at the time was bolstering the pitching (which I agree with). I can see why Walt didn't want to blow a lot of his money on an OF early in the offseason.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

I wonder if the Twins will be more realistic on their asking prices for Span and Willingham this winter.

I remember some writer saying that at last year's trading deadline that the prices for both these guys was "through the roof"..

Kind of a shame that we weren't able to snag Willingham as a FA, although if I remember, he signed quite early and the Reds main prioirty at the time was bolstering the pitching (which I agree with). I can see why Walt didn't want to blow a lot of his money on an OF early in the offseason.

If the reports of Broxton's imminent signing and Chapman's subsequent move to the rotation are correct, the Reds can afford to ship Leake and one of Corcino/Cingrani for an OF or two. I'd have to think those arms would be enticing in a deal for Span or Willingham, and if the Reds added an additional prospect or two, maybe both of them.

I would imagine the Twins would have to throw in some cash to cover (or maybe take Stubbs back), but these days you never know.

Of course I would try first for Justin Upton or Dexter Fowler with those same guys as bait, but that's just me.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Benihana

If the reports of Broxton's imminent signing and Chapman's subsequent move to the rotation are correct, the Reds can afford to ship Leake and one of Corcino/Cingrani for an OF or two. I'd have to think those arms would be enticing in a deal for Span or Willingham, and if the Reds added an additional prospect or two, maybe both of them.

I would imagine the Twins would have to throw in some cash to cover (or maybe take Stubbs back), but these days you never know.

Of course I would try first for Justin Upton or Dexter Fowler with those same guys as bait, but that's just me.

Just out of curiosity...why is it that we can now afford to deal away Leake and Cingrani/Corcino? Chapman won't be able to pitch 200 innings so we'll need a 6th starter for certain. Injuries happen (as does pitchers struggling) so I'd say it's a near certainty that we'll also need a 7th starter. Add in an 8th just for safety's sake too IMO. I can see us dangling one of Corcino/Cingrani, but not both and certainly not one of the current starting 5.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by Benihana

If the reports of Broxton's imminent signing and Chapman's subsequent move to the rotation are correct, the Reds can afford to ship Leake and one of Corcino/Cingrani for an OF or two. I'd have to think those arms would be enticing in a deal for Span or Willingham, and if the Reds added an additional prospect or two, maybe both of them.

I would imagine the Twins would have to throw in some cash to cover (or maybe take Stubbs back), but these days you never know.

Of course I would try first for Justin Upton or Dexter Fowler with those same guys as bait, but that's just me.

That's true. I didn't know about Broxton being close when I wrote that.
I guess I'd be on board with trading some pitching for Willingham.
I really don't want to spend a lot of resources for Span, even though he is an upgrade to Stubbs. IMO, LF is a higher priority than CF. Recent history shows we needed the 2010 Gomes and the 2012 Ludwick to help the offense..
In other words, if we get Span, but then are forced to play Paul/Heisey/Stubbs in LF, I think the team has moved backwards.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Just out of curiosity...why is it that we can now afford to deal away Leake and Cingrani/Corcino? Chapman won't be able to pitch 200 innings so we'll need a 6th starter for certain. Injuries happen (as does pitchers struggling) so I'd say it's a near certainty that we'll also need a 7th starter. Add in an 8th just for safety's sake too IMO. I can see us dangling one of Corcino/Cingrani, but not both and certainly not one of the current starting 5.

Um, because if you hoard 8 major league starting pitchers "just for safety's sake" when you have other glaring holes you need to fill in the starting lineup, you're not going to be a very good team.

While I agree that he won't throw 200 innings, moving Chapman to the rotation allows the Reds to be flexible with Leake and one of Corcino/Cingrani, meaning they could be dealt for the right parts.

The Reds would still have a 1-5 of Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo & Chapman with Redmond and one of Corcino/Cingrani filling in for Chapman's remaining innings and/or one of the SP getting injured. Yes, it's not 8 deep, but no team is- nor can they afford to be when there are other weaknesses to address.

Originally Posted by REDREAD

That's true. I didn't know about Broxton being close when I wrote that.
I guess I'd be on board with trading some pitching for Willingham.
I really don't want to spend a lot of resources for Span, even though he is an upgrade to Stubbs. IMO, LF is a higher priority than CF. Recent history shows we needed the 2010 Gomes and the 2012 Ludwick to help the offense..
In other words, if we get Span, but then are forced to play Paul/Heisey/Stubbs in LF, I think the team has moved backwards.

Completely agree- Span is my least favorite trade target of all the "available" OF (Willingham, J.Upton, Fowler, Ellsbury, Choo, Myers, Gordon, etc.)

[mdccclxix]

I just don't know how the OF will be addressed, but that aside I do like keeping Leake in the bullpen and Cingrani/Corcino for late 2013 and 2014 as well. You have to like your chances that 1 out of those 3 players will be able to step up in 2014 when Arroyo, Bailey and Latos are all much more expensive or gone.

Does anyone have a projection for Cingrani and Corcino in the milb top 100?

As for the Twins, I don't think the Reds really like Willingham, or they'd have signed him when they had a chance. As for Span, he's signed for longer than the Reds need and would cost a bit.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Um, because if you hoard 8 major league starting pitchers "just for safety's sake" when you have other glaring holes you need to fill in the starting lineup, you're not going to be a very good team.

While I agree that he won't throw 200 innings, moving Chapman to the rotation allows the Reds to be flexible with Leake and one of Corcino/Cingrani, meaning they could be dealt for the right parts.

The Reds would still have a 1-5 of Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo & Chapman with Redmond and one of Corcino/Cingrani filling in for Chapman's remaining innings and/or one of the SP getting injured. Yes, it's not 8 deep, but no team is- nor can they afford to be when there are other weaknesses to address.

2 of the 3 might not even be ready for the Majors yet. The jury's still out on Corcino & Cingrani. Leake is vastly underappreciated IMO. So it's not really 8 deep regardless. But I certainly don't deal away promising young pitchers when we've got an unknown in Chapman and next season we lose Bronson. Trade Leake away and one of the C's...come 2014 we could be hurting to fill out that rotation. Especially if Chapman performs as a starter like he did the first time around.

Don't get me wrong, I'm in favor of moving Aroldis to the rotation. But I personally don't think Cingrani or Corcino are quite ready for the show yet and I want to hold onto Leake to fill Bronson's void in 2014. I'd certainly be willing to deal one of the C's in the right deal, but I don't feel that we're in a position where we "need" to deal them. We've got other pieces we can deal to bring in what we need.

2013
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Chapman/Leake (Corcino/Cingrani in AAA)
2014
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Leake (Corcino/Cingrani in AAA if still starting)
2015
Cueto possibly gone, Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Leake, one of Corcino/Cingrani

Leake fills a major void once Bronson leaves. And I want some options come 2015. Stephenson should be knocking on the door, but one of the C's with some solid AAA experience under their belt might just be the ticket.

(and I'm guessing that both Latos & Bailey are going to get extensions this offseason. If not, Latos is a FA come 2016 and Homer in 2015.)

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

2 of the 3 might not even be ready for the Majors yet. The jury's still out on Corcino & Cingrani. Leake is vastly underappreciated IMO. So it's not really 8 deep regardless. But I certainly don't deal away promising young pitchers when we've got an unknown in Chapman and next season we lose Bronson. Trade Leake away and one of the C's...come 2014 we could be hurting to fill out that rotation. Especially if Chapman performs as a starter like he did the first time around.

Don't get me wrong, I'm in favor of moving Aroldis to the rotation. But I personally don't think Cingrani or Corcino are quite ready for the show yet and I want to hold onto Leake to fill Bronson's void in 2014. I'd certainly be willing to deal one of the C's in the right deal, but I don't feel that we're in a position where we "need" to deal them. We've got other pieces we can deal to bring in what we need.

2013
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, Chapman/Leake (Corcino/Cingrani in AAA)
2014
Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Leake (Corcino/Cingrani in AAA if still starting)
2015
Cueto possibly gone, Latos, Bailey, Chapman, Leake, one of Corcino/Cingrani

Leake fills a major void once Bronson leaves. And I want some options come 2015. Stephenson should be knocking on the door, but one of the C's with some solid AAA experience under their belt might just be the ticket.

(and I'm guessing that both Latos & Bailey are going to get extensions this offseason. If not, Latos is a FA come 2016 and Homer in 2015.)

Good stuff. I think it's noticeable too that when Arroyo is gone Chapman will be the one to step in. The Reds can no longer wait to try him in the rotation, it must begin in 2013 if it's going to work best long term. Along those same lines, if Chapman does work out it provides clarity on Bailey and Latos' futures. I predict an extension for Latos this year and one for Bailey in 2014, after it becomes clear if he's really grown up and can stay healthy and if Chapman will be effective. I think Latos' track record speaks loud enough to sign him on asap.