Trading a starting pitcher

[Kc61]

OK, Broxton is signed, the Reds presumably will try Chapman as a starter. They have Redmond as a backup starter.

Some member of the rotation likely will go.

The obvious candidate is Mike Leake. He had the worst year last year and his stuff may point to a rocky career. But he is young, was very good in 2011, and maybe the return in a trade won't be so great right now.

The second candidate is Homer Bailey. He seemed to turn the corner late last season. Pitched a no-no, a great playoff performance. But has Homer shown over a full season that he is a TOR guy or solid number three? Should the Reds sell high? Could bring a good return.

The third candidate is Bronson Arroyo. Bronson redeemed himself well last year. But his contract has only one year left, as I recall, so he may be attractive to a contender looking for a solid veteran without a long commitment. It's the Reds' chance to save some money on salary for next year and get a decent return. Bronson might have approval or other rights that could complicate this.

Cueto and Latos seem pretty set, not including them.

I expect something soon. Just guessing, but it could be that the Broxton signing was done with the Chapman move and a trade of one starter all lined up.

[Edd Roush]

I would make any starter available at the right price, including Chapman, Cueto and Latos. I obviously value those three gentlemen more than the other four who could be Reds' starters next year (Bailey, Leake, Arroyo, Redmond), but if it takes a Chapman to get a Giancarlo Stanton, you make that deal. Right now, the Reds have major starting pitching depth. It is time to trade some of that depth to land a cornerstone bat to put this team over the top. This Broxton deal just gave us the flexibility to make a major move.

[Reds1]

if improves the team any trade can be made, but one thing last year showed me is that pitching wins and if we have to have mediocre hitting and awesome pitching so be it, but I think the reds need another started not to get ride of one. You can never have enough. Even though we had a special season with no injuries to the rotation we lost Cueto when it counted. We just need some tweaks on offense. Too many strike out guys, but that being said we have pitching and defense and that will take you a long way. If the key guys stay healthy (Votto, BP) and say Bruce is more consistant - the growth of young guys and a couple tweaks I'm ok with as long as they continue to beef up pitching. I wouldn't mind seeing a trade for a contact type hitter with the group of starters like STubbs, Heisey, etc. for a contact type OF I would be ok with.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Reds1

if improves the team any trade can be made, but one thing last year showed me is that pitching wins and if we have to have mediocre hitting and awesome pitching so be it, but I think the reds need another started not to get ride of one. You can never have enough. Even though we had a special season with no injuries to the rotation we lost Cueto when it counted. We just need some tweaks on offense. Too many strike out guys, but that being said we have pitching and defense and that will take you a long way. If the key guys stay healthy (Votto, BP) and say Bruce is more consistant - the growth of young guys and a couple tweaks I'm ok with as long as they continue to beef up pitching. I wouldn't mind seeing a trade for a contact type hitter with the group of starters like STubbs, Heisey, etc. for a contact type OF I would be ok with.

I agree but you really can't have six real starting pitchers each of whom expects to start every fifth day.

I guess you could put Leake in the bullpen, but it's not optimal.

If the Reds have Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Bailey, Leake, and Arroyo, the best solution for next year is to trade one of them. They are too valuable to have sitting around in case of injury.

People like Redmond, Cingrani, maybe Corcino next year are the backups in case of injury or other need.

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by Reds1

if improves the team any trade can be made, but one thing last year showed me is that pitching wins and if we have to have mediocre hitting and awesome pitching so be it, but I think the reds need another started not to get ride of one. You can never have enough. Even though we had a special season with no injuries to the rotation we lost Cueto when it counted. We just need some tweaks on offense. Too many strike out guys, but that being said we have pitching and defense and that will take you a long way. If the key guys stay healthy (Votto, BP) and say Bruce is more consistant - the growth of young guys and a couple tweaks I'm ok with as long as they continue to beef up pitching. I wouldn't mind seeing a trade for a contact type hitter with the group of starters like STubbs, Heisey, etc. for a contact type OF I would be ok with.

Just posted this in the Broxton thread, but I agree with you. You can't count on everyone staying healthy and effective next season and you certainly can't count on Chapman going from closer to anything more than 150 innings. They need rotation depth.

They may trade a starter, but not unless they bring in another one (or two) via trade or free agency.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

[LegallyMinded]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

Just posted this in the Broxton thread, but I agree with you. You can't count on everyone staying healthy and effective next season and you certainly can't count on Chapman going from closer to anything more than 150 innings. They need rotation depth.

They may trade a starter, but not unless they bring in another one (or two) via trade or free agency.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Jeff Samardzjia and Chris Sale went from relieving to pitching 170 and 190 innings, respectively, last year, so I wouldn't say Chapman can't necessarily shoulder the full workload of a starter. Nonetheless, I share your concern about pitching depth in light of the Chapman's move to the rotation: There's always the chance that he pulls a Daniel Bard, and is woefully ineffective as a starter. I'm sure the Reds recognize that possibility, though, and will have some kind of backup plan (and hopefully one that goes beyond Mark Redman).

[mdccclxix]

How often does a starter begin the year on the dl? I'd say pretty often. Walt can push Leake to the pen if he has to, but he won't have to until late March. Until then, he can try to find a great deal, but certainly doesn't need to be in sell mode.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

Just posted this in the Broxton thread, but I agree with you. You can't count on everyone staying healthy and effective next season and you certainly can't count on Chapman going from closer to anything more than 150 innings. They need rotation depth.

They may trade a starter, but not unless they bring in another one (or two) via trade or free agency.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

I love pitching. Us Reds' fans know what it is like to not have enough pitching. But you don't want to go from one extreme to the other. We don't want to become pitching "hoarders." Mike Leake loses a tremendous amount of value going from a solid back-end starter to a guy who is a long reliever.

As stated by Kc61, we have Redmond, Cingrani and Corcino also as 5th rotation options if a starter gets hurt. I personally would deal two guys if it meant I got a major improvement like Myers/Stanton.

Right now, the Reds aren't good enough to put them safely into the 2013 post-season. We have major holes in LF and CF. The Reds cannot count on getting Ludwick-lucky in 2013. Adding a legit bat between Bruce and Votto will not only give us a top half of the NL offense, but it will save us from griping about Dusty batting Phillips clean-up just to go L-R-L.

Imagine a team of:

Phillips
Frazier
Votto
Myers/Stanton
Bruce
Bernadina & Stubbs
Mesagin
Cozart
P

Latos
Cueto
Chapman
Bailey
Arroyo

Redmond
LeCure
Simon
Cingrani
Hoover
Marshall
Broxton

That's the kind of team I want to go to battle with in 2013.

[RedEye]

I'm not sure they will necessarily look to deal a starter. As others have already pointed out, a lot of pitching is a good thing to have. Reds fans may have gotten a bit spoiled last year by the historic season the rotation had in terms of health. Teams don't usually have five healthy starters all year long. Walt and Bob know that.

That said, if an impact bat at leadoff or cleanup can be had by using one of these assets at a reasonable exchange rate, I'm sure Jocketty goes for it. He proved to me last offseason that he has a plan and will not hesitate to make deals if he feels the time is right.

[_Sir_Charles_]

First off, I look at Redmond as an emergency back-up plan. A Matt Maloney type. AAAA player. So I'm not figuring him into any equation to be honest.

Cingrani and Corcino. They're both highly touted and for good reason. But does anybody here seriously see them as ready to be starters in the Majors this season (outside of an emergency spot start)? I certainly don't. Not yet, and not on a contending team. IMO they have to FORCE their way into the rotation. You don't trade away a proven starter to let them slide in.

Leake is highly undervalued here on Redszone IMO. Sure, he was the 5th starter for our club last year and had the worst numbers of the 5. But compared to the rest of the league, Leake was a poor #3 starter, a solid #4 or a fantastic #5 depending on how you want to figure it. Simply put, he was a valuable member of the rotation. And once you factor in his age and cost...VERY valuable. But that being said, Chapman to the rotation seems to be a foregone conclusion so Leake does seem to be the odd man out. But that certainly doesn't mean he goes to the bullpen to be put to sleep as a rarely used long man, and it also doesn't mean he has to be traded due to an "excess" of starting pitching. IMO it means that he needs to go to AAA and continue to start in order to stay on a consistent schedule as a starter. Chapman will NOT be able to pitch all season. Not a chance. Leake is the obvious replacement for those needed starts (and any other available starts to give the other 4 a needed breather). But that's only the aspect of this coming season. There's more to look at...the long term. After this season, Bronson's tenure is most likely done. Leake is the incredibly obvious replacement for Arroyo's role in the rotation. A softer tosser to break up the hard throwers, a control pitcher who's main weapons are off speed and breaking balls, a VERY solid defender and hitter. He is Bronson v2.0. That isn't something I want to trade away to solve a problem for one season.

So basically, in my opinion, the only pitchers we should even consider shopping are the minor league guys. I would prefer to hold onto Stephenson for sure. And one of Cingrani/Corcino would be advisable IMO too. If Cingrani looks destined for the pen, then trading him before that becomes readily apparent to opposing teams might be advisable. But I don't want to see them ditch the idea of him starting before he gets a real chance against AAA hitters. I'd prefer to see both C's starting in AAA all season long and then get september callups.

I just don't get the need/desire to trade away starting pitching because we brought in Redmond. And that's basically what we're saying here it seems. The kids aren't ready and Leake will be needed down the line. Hang onto them. Deal from other areas.

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by Kc61

OK, Broxton is signed, the Reds presumably will try Chapman as a starter. They have Redmond as a backup starter.

Some member of the rotation likely will go.

The obvious candidate is Mike Leake. He had the worst year last year and his stuff may point to a rocky career. But he is young, was very good in 2011, and maybe the return in a trade won't be so great right now.

The second candidate is Homer Bailey. He seemed to turn the corner late last season. Pitched a no-no, a great playoff performance. But has Homer shown over a full season that he is a TOR guy or solid number three? Should the Reds sell high? Could bring a good return.

The third candidate is Bronson Arroyo. Bronson redeemed himself well last year. But his contract has only one year left, as I recall, so he may be attractive to a contender looking for a solid veteran without a long commitment. It's the Reds' chance to save some money on salary for next year and get a decent return. Bronson might have approval or other rights that could complicate this.

Cueto and Latos seem pretty set, not including them.

I expect something soon. Just guessing, but it could be that the Broxton signing was done with the Chapman move and a trade of one starter all lined up.

A good summation, I would add that Bronson Arroyo has 10/5 rights, so he is going no where, without approving it.

[Edd Roush]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

First off, I look at Redmond as an emergency back-up plan. A Matt Maloney type. AAAA player. So I'm not figuring him into any equation to be honest.

Cingrani and Corcino. They're both highly touted and for good reason. But does anybody here seriously see them as ready to be starters in the Majors this season (outside of an emergency spot start)? I certainly don't. Not yet, and not on a contending team. IMO they have to FORCE their way into the rotation. You don't trade away a proven starter to let them slide in.

Leake is highly undervalued here on Redszone IMO. Sure, he was the 5th starter for our club last year and had the worst numbers of the 5. But compared to the rest of the league, Leake was a poor #3 starter, a solid #4 or a fantastic #5 depending on how you want to figure it. Simply put, he was a valuable member of the rotation. And once you factor in his age and cost...VERY valuable. But that being said, Chapman to the rotation seems to be a foregone conclusion so Leake does seem to be the odd man out. But that certainly doesn't mean he goes to the bullpen to be put to sleep as a rarely used long man, and it also doesn't mean he has to be traded due to an "excess" of starting pitching. IMO it means that he needs to go to AAA and continue to start in order to stay on a consistent schedule as a starter. Chapman will NOT be able to pitch all season. Not a chance. Leake is the obvious replacement for those needed starts (and any other available starts to give the other 4 a needed breather). But that's only the aspect of this coming season. There's more to look at...the long term. After this season, Bronson's tenure is most likely done. Leake is the incredibly obvious replacement for Arroyo's role in the rotation. A softer tosser to break up the hard throwers, a control pitcher who's main weapons are off speed and breaking balls, a VERY solid defender and hitter. He is Bronson v2.0. That isn't something I want to trade away to solve a problem for one season.

So basically, in my opinion, the only pitchers we should even consider shopping are the minor league guys. I would prefer to hold onto Stephenson for sure. And one of Cingrani/Corcino would be advisable IMO too. If Cingrani looks destined for the pen, then trading him before that becomes readily apparent to opposing teams might be advisable. But I don't want to see them ditch the idea of him starting before he gets a real chance against AAA hitters. I'd prefer to see both C's starting in AAA all season long and then get september callups.

I just don't get the need/desire to trade away starting pitching because we brought in Redmond. And that's basically what we're saying here it seems. The kids aren't ready and Leake will be needed down the line. Hang onto them. Deal from other areas.

I think it's safe to see Redmond as an emergency starter, certainly the Reds should not plan on a major impact from him this year. That being said, Redmond can fill a rotation spot for a few weeks and give a team with a better offense and still solid defense a chance to win. He shouldn't be written off completely as a useless asset.

As for Corcino and Cingrani, I could see both making impacts next season. If both pitch well in Louisville and a starter goes down June or later, I could see the Reds calling up one or the other to fill in long-term. I would prefer that they get as much seasoning as possible in AAA, but I would have no problem with them getting a taste of the bigs if they are having considerable success in Louisville. I am certainly not prepared to say I would not like to see them start at all next year.

I believe some posters likely undervalue Leake, but some others like me do not undervalue Leake. I see him as a solid backend starter who has additional value because he can field his position and he is not an automatic out at the plate. Furthermore, Mike Leake is very cheap. Therefore, I agree Leake is very valuable, if the Royals or Marlins also think he is very valuable (both more cost conscious franchises than the Reds), then we may have a good trade partner.

You must trade value to get value.

I will admit I disliked Arroyo in 2011 and last off-season wanted to do anything to get rid of him. Well, Arroyo turned in a very solid 2012, and now I would not mind him being a part of the rotation in 2014 and beyond. Just because his contract is up, I am not sure that means he will be gone. He likes Cincinnati and his celeb status here. I am sure he would be open to returning, especially if the Reds have success in 2013.

Therefore, I hope you can see how the Reds could deal one or even two of Leake, Corcino and Cingrani and still have depth.

Leake rotting away in Louisville or the bullpen makes no sense to me. Leake has value right now as a starting pitcher. If you demote him to the bullpen or Louisville, you are killing his trade value.

What do all of you that want to hold onto all of our pitching plan on doing if everyone is healthy (like last year)? You don't want to keep both Redmond and Leake in Cincinnati as longmen, do you? If you do that, you lose at least one, if not two of Arredondo, LeCure, Simon or Hoover from the Cincinnati pen.

The Reds have too many good pitchers for too little open spots. The Reds should deal one (or two) now and fill our giant hole at clean-up and in left field.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

A good summation, I would add that Bronson Arroyo has 10/5 rights, so he is going no where, without approving it.

It also wouldn't save the reds any money either. Bronson has that clause in his contract that says if he gets traded, he gets all that deferred money right then and there.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

I think it's safe to see Redmond as an emergency starter, certainly the Reds should not plan on a major impact from him this year. That being said, Redmond can fill a rotation spot for a few weeks and give a team with a better offense and still solid defense a chance to win. He shouldn't be written off completely as a useless asset.

I wasn't writing him off as a useless asset. Just a Justin Lehr guy who is a solid AAA starter. But he shouldn't be in the rotation unless some serious injuries plague the rotation (numerous injuries).

As for Corcino and Cingrani, I could see both making impacts next season. If both pitch well in Louisville and a starter goes down June or later, I could see the Reds calling up one or the other to fill in long-term. I would prefer that they get as much seasoning as possible in AAA, but I would have no problem with them getting a taste of the bigs if they are having considerable success in Louisville. I am certainly not prepared to say I would not like to see them start at all next year.

I'd have no problem with them getting some starts next year. Not at all. But I don't want to have to depend on them. They're rookies and not heavily tested in the upper minors either. If they spend all of 2013 in AAA it might just be best for their long term development. And I'd also have no problem trading one (or both if the return is VERY nice).

I believe some posters likely undervalue Leake, but some others like me do not undervalue Leake. I see him as a solid backend starter who has additional value because he can field his position and he is not an automatic out at the plate. Furthermore, Mike Leake is very cheap. Therefore, I agree Leake is very valuable, if the Royals or Marlins also think he is very valuable (both more cost conscious franchises than the Reds), then we may have a good trade partner.

You must trade value to get value.

I'm sure that some team(s) would like to have him. But so would we. I agree that moving him to the pen kills his value and makes it harder to use him as a starter if needed. But I really don't think demoting him to AAA to make room for Chapman will hurt his trade value. But to be honest, that only matters if you're planning on trading him. I see him as a long term solution in this rotation.

I will admit I disliked Arroyo in 2011 and last off-season wanted to do anything to get rid of him. Well, Arroyo turned in a very solid 2012, and now I would not mind him being a part of the rotation in 2014 and beyond. Just because his contract is up, I am not sure that means he will be gone. He likes Cincinnati and his celeb status here. I am sure he would be open to returning, especially if the Reds have success in 2013.

This is a VERY valid point. I'd like the Reds to find out where he stands on this sooner rather than later. I'd have no problem with Bronson hanging around a few more years. But it has some serious repercussions to the young pitchers we have and I'd think Bronson's aware of this. Get everyone talking and keep everyone informed and you'll eliminate alot of confusion and frustration.

Therefore, I hope you can see how the Reds could deal one or even two of Leake, Corcino and Cingrani and still have depth.

I agree and I have always agreed with this. But the only way I deal Leake is if I know Bronson's returning or the return on the trade is VERY nice. Corcino/Cingrani are trade bait in my opinion. If we can hang onto one of them, great...but not a necessity. We don't NEED to trade any of them. And that's what my problem has been with these posts (not yours, just the general "trade a pitcher" posts). If the return is right, sure...but we don't HAVE to trade any of them.

Leake rotting away in Louisville or the bullpen makes no sense to me. Leake has value right now as a starting pitcher. If you demote him to the bullpen or Louisville, you are killing his trade value.

Disagree, as I noted above. Keep him out of the pen, but I've got ZERO problem with him in AAA for half the season. He can be yo-yo'd up and down as much as needed next season.

What do all of you that want to hold onto all of our pitching plan on doing if everyone is healthy (like last year)? You don't want to keep both Redmond and Leake in Cincinnati as longmen, do you? If you do that, you lose at least one, if not two of Arredondo, LeCure, Simon or Hoover from the Cincinnati pen.

I don't want to see either Leake or Redmond as long men at all. Simon/LeCure can fill that void easily enough. Keep Leake and Redmond starting...that's where their value lies.

The Reds have too many good pitchers for too little open spots. The Reds should deal one (or two) now and fill our giant hole at clean-up and in left field.

No problem with trading to fill needed holes. But pushing to make one of the people traded a starter (or two even) is the part I have a problem with. We could conceivably get our left fielder without trading any starters but rather position players and relievers or even lower-level starters. Or even signing a FA. I see no need to basically tell a guy to pack his bags...we'll find someone to trade him for soon enough. Seems to be working the problem from the wrong angle. Just my opinion.

[mdccclxix]

Stanton is not available. Wil Myers is being talked about for Lester, who is our Cueto. Neither Bailey or Leake will be enough to hugely impact LF. You can start piling on prospects, sure. Not saying LF can't be upgraded, but I'd prefer Ludwick on a Broxton type deal, as I don't think the options you've suggested are really in the Reds range. We'll see, though.