College Football Realignment

[IslandRed]

Originally Posted by cumberlandreds

They are only voting on Louisville. In fact the vote has probably already happened. It was a 7 AM vote time. It was expected the ACC would vote them in.

Yep, and this is why I don't bet on sports for a living!

And to others' statements that realignment isn't finished, that's probably true. There are, literally, eight ACC programs at risk of being poached by the B1G, SEC or Big 12. One more big move and the avalanche might start.

[Reds Freak]

Originally Posted by IslandRed

Yep, and this is why I don't bet on sports for a living!

And to others' statements that realignment isn't finished, that's probably true. There are, literally, eight ACC programs at risk of being poached by the B1G, SEC or Big 12. One more big move and the avalanche might start.

I think the only thing that saves the ACC is if they can convince Notre Dame to join as a full member. Legally, does Louisville joining the ACC affect the $50M that Maryland owes for leaving?

[wolfboy]

Originally Posted by Reds Freak

I think the only thing that saves the ACC is if they can convince Notre Dame to join as a full member. Legally, does Louisville joining the ACC affect the $50M that Maryland owes for leaving?

The ACC can keep dreaming. There may have been a chance when ND was on the verge of being irrelevant. Now that they're back in the spotlight? No way. The ACC is falling for the same sweet nothings the Big East listened to for years. Not gonna happen.

[Sea Ray]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

University of Cincinnati athletics died this morning.

Oh well, at least I can go watch a real baseball team play without driving 90 minutes each way.

Nothing's dead yet. This stuff is still in flux. There's still a lot more movement yet to be done

[paintmered]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

Nothing's dead yet. This stuff is still in flux. There's still a lot more movement yet to be done

The amount of near-term future movement is tied to how much Maryland pays in exit fees to the ACC. If that number goes low, then it's essentially free agency for current ACC programs. Supposedly, the ACC took Louisville because other conferences are sniffing around, and they felt it was most important to secure them while they could. UC and UCONN will be available in the next round.

Louisville leaving the Big East is another kick to the midsection for us UC fans. We've had plenty of them before, and there may be more to come. But if you're looking for hope, look towards the Maryland v. ACC lawsuit. That will determine our future.

[mdccclxix]

I personally believe UC's football program would blossom in the big 12, as the name recognition of Texas, Oklahoma, etc would draw much more interest in Cincinnati. I think that will be best case for UC.

[wolfboy]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I personally believe UC's football program would blossom in the big 12, as the name recognition of Texas, Oklahoma, etc would draw much more interest in Cincinnati. I think that will be best case for UC.

It's a long shot, but I tend to agree. The ACC could have as many instability issues going forward as the Big East has had in recent history. Add that to the fact that the ACC will essentially be the Big East once this is all said and done, and it just doesn't excite me as a fan. At least we'd get a nicer paycheck for athletics.

[medford]

Originally Posted by wolfboy

It won't happen. Have you seen what the MWC has for a television contract? Boise might get less than they bargained for in the new Big East t.v. deal, but it's a fortune compared to what the MWC has.

Roughly $1 mil per team.

Big East currently gets roughly $40 mil a season, $3 mil per football team.

w/ the depatures of Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville & WVU, plus the turmoil around UConn & UC, perhaps others, will the new big east get enough money for Boise than they could get in a revamped MWC to justify trips out to Conneticut, Cincy, Philly, & Central Florida?

There's currently 13 teams set to be members in football in 2015. If you assume the big east retains its $40 mil a year TV deal (good or bad assumption I don't know, I'm no TV exec) and you also assume that the football-BBall split is 70-30 to satisfy the alleged min split ratio in Boise's "escape clause" that would give each of those football schools roughly $1.86 mil a year.

How much does it cost to travel to half of Annapolis, Conn, Cincy, Tampa, Orlando, ECU and/or Philly every year? Certainly they have travel issues everywhere they play, but most of the MWC is significantly closer than 75% of the new big east.

In short, the next TV deal for the Big East is going to have to take a huge jump over the current Big East deal for Boise to see a significant increase over what they see this year. An unnamed TV exec said the Big East would be "lucky" to get $75-$100 mil annually in their next deal. That was prior to the Rutgers & Louisville departures, Tulane/ECU additions.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by paintmered

The amount of near-term future movement is tied to how much Maryland pays in exit fees to the ACC. If that number goes low, then it's essentially free agency for current ACC programs. Supposedly, the ACC took Louisville because other conferences are sniffing around, and they felt it was most important to secure them while they could. UC and UCONN will be available in the next round.

Louisville leaving the Big East is another kick to the midsection for us UC fans. We've had plenty of them before, and there may be more to come. But if you're looking for hope, look towards the Maryland v. ACC lawsuit. That will determine our future.

The longer this all takes, the more difficult it will be to keep any sort of momentum for UC football. They're going to probably lose Jones at the end of this season, and their recruiting is definitely going to take a hit from the loss of the AQ slot. Going forward, if they're having trouble selling tickets to current BE games, they'll have a hell of a time selling tickets to games against teams like Tulane, SMU, Houston, and Memphis.

The TV deal is going to be a dog -- especially if Boise State doesn't stick around. Even with Boise, I think they'll be hard-pressed to wrangle out even the same amount of money they're currently getting. You're probably looking at a lot of mid-week games in any new TV deal, which will further impact attendance.

There's also the issue of facilities -- Nippert & 5/3 are in desperate need of upgrades, and it's going to get tougher and tougher to find money for those projects when boosters are seeing low-level competition coming through town.

Really, there's nothing UC can do right now except pray really hard this holding pattern isn't years, because the state of the program is going to deteriorate significantly if they're forced to live in the Big East much longer.

[wolfboy]

Originally Posted by medford

Roughly $1 mil per team.

Big East currently gets roughly $40 mil a season, $3 mil per football team.

w/ the depatures of Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville & WVU, plus the turmoil around UConn & UC, perhaps others, will the new big east get enough money for Boise than they could get in a revamped MWC to justify trips out to Conneticut, Cincy, Philly, & Central Florida?

There's currently 13 teams set to be members in football in 2015. If you assume the big east retains its $40 mil a year TV deal (good or bad assumption I don't know, I'm no TV exec) and you also assume that the football-BBall split is 70-30 to satisfy the alleged min split ratio in Boise's "escape clause" that would give each of those football schools roughly $1.86 mil a year.

How much does it cost to travel to half of Annapolis, Conn, Cincy, Tampa, Orlando, ECU and/or Philly every year? Certainly they have travel issues everywhere they play, but most of the MWC is significantly closer than 75% of the new big east.

In short, the next TV deal for the Big East is going to have to take a huge jump over the current Big East deal for Boise to see a significant increase over what they see this year. An unnamed TV exec said the Big East would be "lucky" to get $75-$100 mil annually in their next deal. That was prior to the Rutgers & Louisville departures, Tulane/ECU additions.

Not quite. The MWC contract is around 8 million a year. For the 2013 season, they have ten teams lined up: Air Force, CSU, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming, Fresno St., Nevada, Hawaii, San Jose St., and Utah State. That's 800,000 per school as it stands. Now we're talking about Boise State and SDSU returning? 8 million divided by twelve. Now we're at 667,000? Do you really think they're going to jump back to that?

[medford]

Originally Posted by wolfboy

Not quite. The MWC contract is around 8 million a year. For the 2013 season, they have ten teams lined up: Air Force, CSU, New Mexico, UNLV, Wyoming, Fresno St., Nevada, Hawaii, San Jose St., and Utah State. That's 800,000 per school as it stands. Now we're talking about Boise State and SDSU returning? 8 million divided by twelve. Now we're at 667,000? Do you really think they're going to jump back to that?

If BSU & SDSU jumped back, and if the "best of the rest" concept has BYU thinking that a conference is now their best chance of getting to a big bowl and is willing to go back, I'm sure they'd get a shot to renew their TV deal.

At any rate, that doesn't matter until it is known what the next Big East TV deal is worth, and how much the additional travel is worth (not to mention splitting up their sports programs in 2 different conferences) to BSU.

[mdccclxix]

I think UC does end up in the the depleted ACC within a year and a half. I'll be a lot like the BE of 3 years ago, without the AQ, although I think a BE team would have qualified for an AQ slot for most every year even without it, so the argument is that the 5th conference, the outsider, will be just as likely to get that slot every year anyway. Go 10-1, 10-2 every year and you're almost definitely in.

[paintmered]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I think UC does end up in the the depleted ACC within a year and a half. I'll be a lot like the BE of 3 years ago, without the AQ, although I think a BE team would have qualified for an AQ slot for most every year even without it, so the argument is that the 5th conference, the outsider, will be just as likely to get that slot every year anyway. Go 10-1, 10-2 every year and you're almost definitely in.

The ACC also owns the Orange Bowl, something the Big East doesn't have an analogue.

[wolfboy]

Originally Posted by paintmered

The ACC also owns the Orange Bowl, something the Big East doesn't have an analogue.

Yep. And the ACC still has decent basketball - something that's increasingly difficult to say about the Big East.

[paintmered]

And the other shoe may have just dropped... rumors of Butch Jones to Purdue.

Edit: and to think, only four years ago, UC was one play from the National Championship game. Damn.