Trading a starting pitcher

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by Tadasimha

A very out of the box thought: maybe the plan is to keep Leake as a 6th starter and run a six man rotation to keep Chapman's innings down until later in the season. If Chapman succeeds as a starter, the Reds wouldn't have to pull a Strasbourg and leave him off the roster due to some innings limit.

If I'm the manager, I'm in serious rebellion against this idea. I have Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, and Chapman, and you want me to throw Leake instead of one of those guys every six days[?]

[Vottomatic]

Meh. If I'm the Reds, I let trade proposals come to me and let the other teams overpay. The Reds have no reason to do anything at this point.

They signed Broxton to move Chapman to the rotation, hoping to improve the team. I actually think it weakens the team, slightly. Chapman is unproven as a starter and surely won't pitch a whole season as one. Broxton isn't Chapman, in terms of a Closer. So both positions took a hit.

The rest of the bullpen is most likely set with hopefully a healthy Masset, Marshall, Hoover, Arredondo, Simon(?), Ondrusek, and possibly Cingrani as a lefthanded specialist. Really not much different than last year other than a healthier Masset hopefully and Cingrani taking Bray's spot, and Bray really was hurt all season. Oops, forgot LeCure. He was key in the playoffs. Plenty of options to sort it all out.

Plenty of starting pitch options/depth unless someone gets traded.

Lineup is the same if they re-sign Ludwick.

I'd be fine standing pat if the above happened. I wouldn't mind seeing Hamilton, Cingrani, Corcino, Gregorius, and some of the A and AA guys progress this season, such as Stephenson, Lutz, etc. I think they could answer alot of questions in 2013.

Only if an opposing team is willing to knock our socks off with a trade proposal, would I consider it. No need to reach and overpay for something at this point.

I understand the win now mode. But I still see some solutions potentially headed our way, such as Hamilton in CF if he proves worthy.

[Tadasimha]

Originally Posted by Tadasimha

A very out of the box thought: maybe the plan is to keep Leake as a 6th starter and run a six man rotation to keep Chapman's innings down until later in the season. If Chapman succeeds as a starter, the Reds wouldn't have to pull a Strasbourg and leave him off the roster due to some innings limit.

Originally Posted by HokieRed

If I'm the manager, I'm in serious rebellion against this idea. I have Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo, and Chapman, and you want me to throw Leake instead of one of those guys every six days[?]

To ensure that Chapman isn't over worked by the start of the post-season - why not?

[Scrap Irony]

If you're worried about overworking Chapman, start Cingrani, Corcino, Redmond, or another AAAA lifer. Put the other guys on strict five day rotation and skip Chapman whenever it's needed.

You don't need Leake as an emergency starter when he could be packaged for a better OF option than Chris Heisey or Drew Stubbs.

I'd think Boston could be open to a blockbuster deal of Leake, Arredondo, Massett (to balance out the salaries), and the Reds' choice of Gregorius or Cozart for Jacoby Ellsbury and Bryce Brentz.

[mth123]

I keep all 6. Some things to chew on:

1. All 5 starters made all their starts last season. IMO, that actually increases the risk that somebody will spend some time on the DL in 2013 (my money would be on Cueto as the one to miss time). Innings add-up over time.

2. Chapman isn't going to make 30 starts.

3. Villareal and Redmond aren't up to snuff IMO. Those are guys that bad teams would give starts to late in the year when they are out of the race and have dealt their mid-rotation free agents to be for some kids. I don't want them making a start with anything on the line.

4. Daniel Corcino needs a year in AAA. He'd currently be my 7th option, but I'd prefer he not appear on the roster until September.

5. The Reds need Cingrani in the bullpen.

Latos
Cueto
Bailey
Arroyo
Chapman
Leake (Swingman)

Masset/Simon (Mop-up)
Cingrani (LMR)
Lecure (RMR)
Marshall (LHSU)
Hoover (RHSU)
Broxton (Closer)

I'd guess that Leake will make 15 starts or so. I'd be shocked if ends up making less than 10. Trade bait should be Arredondo, Ondrusek, Heisey, Lotzkar, Villareal, LaMarre, Vidal, etc.

Not only do I think the Reds should keep them all, I think they need to sign another vet they can stash at AAA to become the 7th option ahead of Corcino (similar to how they started the year with Jeff Francis in 2012). I'd give Aaron Cook a call for that job.

Next moves IMO

DFA Redmond and Negron. Sign Scott Rolen as a 300 PA 3B. Frazier becomes the answer in LF. Trade some combo of those guys for a lefty bat to share 3B with Rolen and another lefty bat to lead-off and share CF with Stubbs. They'd be ready to win with those moves IMO.

[HokieRed]

Originally Posted by Tadasimha

To ensure that Chapman isn't over worked by the start of the post-season - why not?

Spotting Leake to maybe rest Chapman a bit is one thing; going with a 6 man rotation from the beginning of the year is quite another. It's simply a matter of getting your best arms on the mound as much as possible, and that means using Cueto, Bailey, Latos, and Arroyo every 5 days and Chapman--if the experiment works out--as often as possible.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by mth123

I keep all 6. Some things to chew on:

1. All 5 starters made all their starts last season. IMO, that actually increases the risk that somebody will spend some time on the DL in 2013 (my money would be on Cueto as the one to miss time). Innings add-up over time.

2. Chapman isn't going to make 30 starts.

3. Villareal and Redmond aren't up to snuff IMO. Those are guys that bad teams would give starts to late in the year when they are out of the race and have dealt their mid-rotation free agents to be for some kids. I don't want them making a start with anything on the line.

4. Daniel Corcino needs a year in AAA. He'd currently be my 7th option, but I'd prefer he not appear on the roster until September.

5. The Reds need Cingrani in the bullpen.

Latos
Cueto
Bailey
Arroyo
Chapman
Leake (Swingman)

Masset/Simon (Mop-up)
Cingrani (LMR)
Lecure (RMR)
Marshall (LHSU)
Hoover (RHSU)
Broxton (Closer)

I'd guess that Leake will make 15 starts or so. I'd be shocked if ends up making less than 10. Trade bait should be Arredondo, Ondrusek, Heisey, Lotzkar, Villareal, LaMarre, Vidal, etc.

Not only do I think the Reds should keep them all, I think they need to sign another vet they can stash at AAA to become the 7th option ahead of Corcino (similar to how they started the year with Jeff Francis in 2012). I'd give Aaron Cook a call for that job.

Next moves IMO

DFA Redmond and Negron. Sign Scott Rolen as a 300 PA 3B. Frazier becomes the answer in LF. Trade some combo of those guys for a lefty bat to share 3B with Rolen and another lefty bat to lead-off and share CF with Stubbs. They'd be ready to win with those moves IMO.

Problem here is your available trade bait. It will get you nothing of substance.

The Reds need to be willing to make more significant moves. Right now they have no left fielder, Stubbs/Heisey in CF, one lefty in the bullpen, and holes on the bench. At least the LF and CF are important positions with a need for good level talent.

You ain't fixing the holes by trading Villareal, Redmond, Lamar and Vidal. They won't bring real quality. Nor is it likely Reds are throwing much money at big free agents.

Realistically, the team will have to trade from quality pitching depth. This is their area of strength. Leake, Corcino, Cingrani, all are possibilities. Reds will have to add depth with pitchers like Cook, who you mention.

This team was very ordinary offensively last year, as you know. The additions on offense have to be good players who will cost either money, players, or both. Frankly, at this stage, I think Rolen for 300 at bats is very risky and probably does not advance the ball.

Pitching is important but the team has no leadoff hitter and no cleanup hitter right now and some meaningful effort has to be made to acquire them.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Problem here is your available trade bait. It will get you nothing of substance.

The Reds need to be willing to make more significant moves. Right now they have no left fielder, Stubbs/Heisey in CF, one lefty in the bullpen, and holes on the bench. At least the LF and CF are important positions with a need for good level talent.

You ain't fixing the holes by trading Villareal, Redmond, Lamar and Vidal. They won't bring real quality. Nor is it likely Reds are throwing much money at big free agents.

Realistically, the team will have to trade from quality pitching depth. This is their area of strength. Leake, Corcino, Cingrani, all are possibilities. Reds will have to add depth with pitchers like Cook, who you mention.

This team was very ordinary offensively last year, as you know. The additions on offense have to be good players who will cost either money, players, or both. Frankly, at this stage, I think Rolen for 300 at bats is very risky and probably does not advance the ball.

Pitching is important but the team has no leadoff hitter and no cleanup hitter right now and some meaningful effort has to be made to acquire them.

Thing is, I don't think the Reds will get all that much more of substance for Leake. They'll likely have to take on a salary to acquire something of substance. The way I have it figured, the Reds are sitting with a 25 man roster that will cost about $95 Million or so as is right now. Simply adding Rolen and a couple of cheap part-time guys will probably push them over $100 Million. From listening to Walt's limited comments about Rolen, it seems there is a spot for him if he wants to play. I'd guess that will be with enough playing time that Frazier will need to spend a significant amount of time in LF to keep his bat in the line-up. If Rolen comes back, I just don't see them acquiring much more than a lefty bench power type for LF or maybe 3B. Somebody like Seth Smith or Wilson Betemit come to mind. Billy Hamilton is on the way in center. The Reds need a guy who can play some CF against RHP and still provide enough to stay in the mix in CF/LF if (or when) Hamilton arrives. Somebody like David Dejesus. I don't think they need to deal a starter to acquire any of that.

Honestly, the Reds have a big uncertainty in the rotation with Chapman and 4 other guys who are due to miss some time after a healthy season in 2012. I really think they need to keep Leake around. If they can get something of substance for Corcino, I'd be willing to make him available, but I don't see them getting anything for Leake that would provide that much more value than what they could get for spare parts. If that's what they get, I just don't see it adding enough value to make it worth the risk of dealing Leake. Adding guys like David Dejesus and Seth Smith should be doable without dealing Leake. I don't see them making a major splash and if they do, its probably going to take something more significant than Leake to get it done.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by mth123

If they can get something of substance for Corcino, I'd be willing to make him available, but I don't see them getting anything for Leake that would provide that much more value than what they could get for spare parts. If that's what they get, I just don't see it adding enough value to make it worth the risk of dealing Leake. Adding guys like David Dejesus and Seth Smith should be doable without dealing Leake. I don't see them making a major splash and if they do, its probably going to take something more significant than Leake to get it done.

Looking at the Reds' roster, their minor league depth, their desire to keep Billy Hamilton (likely), I think they will have to give up a meaningful pitcher/pitching prospect in trades to get anything of value this off-season.

If it turns out that Corcino is worth more on the market than Leake, then that's a way to go. They may even decide to trade Bailey to upgrade the outfield, although that presumably would be a major deal, for a higher echelon outfielder.

It's not a matter of trading Leake, per se. It's just that I don't see them acquiring anyone of value for the outfield without parting with a pitcher or pitching prospect of value. That's where the Reds' trading depth lies.

As I've said elsewhere, I fully expect one or two of Leake, Corcino, Cingrani, Arroyo, or Bailey to be traded this off-season. Hopefully not Stephenson. To get a good return, I think that's the reality of the situation.

If they can get by trading Lotzkar and other lesser prospects, great, I just find it hard to believe that will be enough.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by mth123

Thing is, I don't think the Reds will get all that much more of substance for Leake. They'll likely have to take on a salary to acquire something of substance. The way I have it figured, the Reds are sitting with a 25 man roster that will cost about $95 Million or so as is right now. Simply adding Rolen and a couple of cheap part-time guys will probably push them over $100 Million. From listening to Walt's limited comments about Rolen, it seems there is a spot for him if he wants to play. I'd guess that will be with enough playing time that Frazier will need to spend a significant amount of time in LF to keep his bat in the line-up. If Rolen comes back, I just don't see them acquiring much more than a lefty bench power type for LF or maybe 3B. Somebody like Seth Smith or Wilson Betemit come to mind. Billy Hamilton is on the way in center. The Reds need a guy who can play some CF against RHP and still provide enough to stay in the mix in CF/LF if (or when) Hamilton arrives. Somebody like David Dejesus. I don't think they need to deal a starter to acquire any of that.

Honestly, the Reds have a big uncertainty in the rotation with Chapman and 4 other guys who are due to miss some time after a healthy season in 2012. I really think they need to keep Leake around. If they can get something of substance for Corcino, I'd be willing to make him available, but I don't see them getting anything for Leake that would provide that much more value than what they could get for spare parts. If that's what they get, I just don't see it adding enough value to make it worth the risk of dealing Leake. Adding guys like David Dejesus and Seth Smith should be doable without dealing Leake. I don't see them making a major splash and if they do, its probably going to take something more significant than Leake to get it done.

I'm not sure I agree with your players to target, but the rest I'm on board with.

My gut feeling tells me we'll sign Ludwick, extend a few players, bring Rolen back and that's it. I think we'll bide our time in center with Stubbs/Heisey and Phillips leading off. I think we'll fill the LH bullpen slot with Cingrani (although I'd prefer him stay a starter until it's clear he doesn't have it). Other than that...standing pat. Not my preference, but it's what I think will happen.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Looking at the Reds' roster, their minor league depth, their desire to keep Billy Hamilton (likely), I think they will have to give up a meaningful pitcher/pitching prospect in trades to get anything of value this off-season.

If it turns out that Corcino is worth more on the market than Leake, then that's a way to go. They may even decide to trade Bailey to upgrade the outfield, although that presumably would be a major deal, for a higher echelon outfielder.

It's not a matter of trading Leake, per se. It's just that I don't see them acquiring anyone of value for the outfield without parting with a pitcher or pitching prospect of value. That's where the Reds' trading depth lies.

As I've said elsewhere, I fully expect one or two of Leake, Corcino, Cingrani, Arroyo, or Bailey to be traded this off-season. Hopefully not Stephenson. To get a good return, I think that's the reality of the situation.

If they can get by trading Lotzkar and other lesser prospects, great, I just find it hard to believe that will be enough.

Completely agree with this.

I would guess one of the SS (likely DiDi) is/will be the other half of the bait.

[lollipopcurve]

I would guess one of the SS (likely DiDi) is/will be the other half of the bait.

I agree. It'll be either a starter, a SS, or both. I think the Twins are best match, and I could see them trying to bring back Span or Willingham (preferably Willingham, IMO, who will cost more).

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by mth123

Thing is, I don't think the Reds will get all that much more of substance for Leake. They'll likely have to take on a salary to acquire something of substance. The way I have it figured, the Reds are sitting with a 25 man roster that will cost about $95 Million or so as is right now. Simply adding Rolen and a couple of cheap part-time guys will probably push them over $100 Million. From listening to Walt's limited comments about Rolen, it seems there is a spot for him if he wants to play. I'd guess that will be with enough playing time that Frazier will need to spend a significant amount of time in LF to keep his bat in the line-up. If Rolen comes back, I just don't see them acquiring much more than a lefty bench power type for LF or maybe 3B. Somebody like Seth Smith or Wilson Betemit come to mind. Billy Hamilton is on the way in center. The Reds need a guy who can play some CF against RHP and still provide enough to stay in the mix in CF/LF if (or when) Hamilton arrives. Somebody like David Dejesus. I don't think they need to deal a starter to acquire any of that.

Honestly, the Reds have a big uncertainty in the rotation with Chapman and 4 other guys who are due to miss some time after a healthy season in 2012. I really think they need to keep Leake around. If they can get something of substance for Corcino, I'd be willing to make him available, but I don't see them getting anything for Leake that would provide that much more value than what they could get for spare parts. If that's what they get, I just don't see it adding enough value to make it worth the risk of dealing Leake. Adding guys like David Dejesus and Seth Smith should be doable without dealing Leake. I don't see them making a major splash and if they do, its probably going to take something more significant than Leake to get it done.

I agree with you. Keep the starting depth, as luck will run out. I believe Texas was a team in 2011 that had a similar run of luck and ran out of it in 2012.

I think the list you mentioned of Lotzkar, Vidal, Corcino, Lamarre, Heisey, AND Leake would all cobble together a really nice player in return. The Marshall trade will tell us as much. He was the best LHRP in baseball and we got him for Wood, Sappelt and Torreyes.

FWIW, in your plan I would also look at acquiring a LHRP (again, but for less this time) to keep Cingrani in the rotation in AAA where some time there to work on his secondary stuff is needed. Like Chapman, we have to know if he can do it.

So a platoon 3b, a LHRP, and/or a platoon CF would all be nice. And there are enough pieces to get them all. I think Leake is much more valuable than Wood, for example.

edit: oops, I didn't mean to include Leake in trades, my point was supposed to be he is valuable enough to bring some substance back, but probably not for the rotation, which should be kept strong.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I agree. It'll be either a starter, a SS, or both. I think the Twins are best match, and I could see them trying to bring back Span or Willingham (preferably Willingham, IMO, who will cost more).

Didi and Corcino (or Cingrani) could be the mainstays of a very nice package. Maybe add in Heisey and, say, a Vidal.

I think you could get quality back for such a package.

And I agree that Willingham would be a good addition to the Reds. Maybe Reds also get somebody to help fill a bench spot in such a deal, and/or a prospect from the lower minor leagues.

[bellhead]

Trade for Meyers, offer Leake and Stubbs plus one of Corcino or Cingrani...
Sign Victorino, bring back Rolen giving Meyers, Frazier, and Rolen 2 spots for 3 players...

What this does is give the Reds a lot of payroll flexibility into the future and allows them to lock up Latos, Baily, and Cueto for the next 5 to 7 years... Not the best starting trio in the major, but the top 5... What would be the cost on this?

Extend Bruce with the Meyers savings....He is just now coming into his own and will be a 30/100 guy for the next 6 to 8 years...

Hamilton will be the Cf in 2014 and will be under control along with Meyers...