Dexter Fowler

[corkedbat]

I'd be more willing to include more to the Rox for Fowler if they included Pomerantz coming back on our end. Thought he had filthy stuff for the Tribe, but hasn't done much for Colorado. I'd love to start him off in the pen and give Price a shot at him.

[Johnny Footstool]

Rockies' players' home/road splits tend to even out when they leave Colorado. The good hitters aren't quite as good as they were at Coors, but aren't nearly as bad as they were away from Coors.

Matt Holliday is a prime example.

[Vottomatic]

The thing about Fowler is he's only 26 years old and he's a switch hitter. Along with his high OBP, that intrigues me the most.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by corkedbat

I'd be more willing to include more to the Rox for Fowler if they included Pomerantz coming back on our end. Thought he had filthy stuff for the Tribe, but hasn't done much for Colorado. I'd love to start him off in the pen and give Price a shot at him.

Agree with this. Pomeranz is a guy I liked a lot in the draft. Hopefully he doesn't turn out like two other big lefties I liked- Andrew Miller and Rich Hill.

I'd do Leake, Corcino and Cingrani for Fowler and Pomeranz.

Would also throw in one of Stubbs, Heisey or LaMarre.

[LoganBuck]

Originally Posted by Benihana

I'd do Leake, Corcino and Cingrani for Fowler and Pomeranz.

Would also throw in one of Stubbs, Heisey or LaMarre

That is a whole lot! Throw in Cozart/Didi and that brings back Justin Upton and approaches bringing Bauer with him.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by LoganBuck

That is a whole lot! Throw in Cozart/Didi and that brings back Justin Upton and approaches bringing Bauer with him.

I'd do that too.

Realistically we just need one young ML ready pitching prospect to be the "6th starter" with this roster. Whether that's Corcino, Cingrani, Pomeranz or Bauer, I'm fine as long as it means Upton or Fowler is in the OF.

[cincinnati chili]

Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool

Rockies' players' home/road splits tend to even out when they leave Colorado. The good hitters aren't quite as good as they were at Coors, but aren't nearly as bad as they were away from Coors.

Matt Holliday is a prime example.

This is well said. Same with Larry Walker. Same with Galarraga (OPS went from .974 to .991 after being traded to Atlanta). Same with Ellis Burks (followed an .865 his last year in Colorado to .964 to 1.025 the following two years in San Francisco). Juan Pierre got better in Florida and getting away from the altitude preserved his body and allowed him to play 162 games for 5 straight years.

Bichette declined when he went to Cincinnati, but he was 36 years old.

95% of posters on this thread are overvaluing what the Reds have to offer and undervaluing what Fowler has to offer.

You just saw what BJ Upton got in free agency, and we'll probably see Bourn get a huge chunk as well. Dexter Fowler is decidedly better than those guys and he's only going to cost about 4 million next year and isn't eligible for free agency until 2015. But putting salary aside who in the Reds organization is more valuable? Votto, Chapman for sure. Cueto and Latos if they keep up their same pace. Bruce is close (although I watch more than half of both players' games and I'd rather have Fowler). That's it. Not Homer Bailey; not Sean Marshall (who I like a lot); not Todd Frazier; and definitely not Billy Hamilton or any of the Reds' pitching prospects.

If I'm O'Dowd, I want Billy Hamilton and two serious pitching prospects in return for forfeiting 2 years of Fowler. I'm certainly not giving the Reds back any pitching that I think is going to turn into anything.

[Scrap Irony]

I'd argue that Cueto and Latos are more valuable and that Bailey was turning the corner toward being more valuable. If Chapman becomes a starter, he, too, could be more valuable.

Bruce, Frazier (at 3B only), Phillips, and Fowler would all be around the same value, IMO, assuming no improvement. (And no decline.) If Cozart improves his obp by 35 points, he'd be in the neighborhood as well.

[cincinnati chili]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I'd argue that Cueto and Latos are more valuable and that Bailey was turning the corner toward being more valuable. If Chapman becomes a starter, he, too, could be more valuable.

Bruce, Frazier (at 3B only), Phillips, and Fowler would all be around the same value, IMO, assuming no improvement. (And no decline.) If Cozart improves his obp by 35 points, he'd be in the neighborhood as well.

Just to clarify, my post agrees with you on Cueto, Latos, and Chapman (even if he remains a reliever). I didn't include Phillips, but I see a good argument for him depending on how high your rate his defense. I don't like the argument for Bailey, unless what we saw in September and October is the standard going forward. No way on Cozart. I guess I'm fine with him being a stopgap (mostly for his defense) until something better comes along, but we're really talking about a replacement-level bat with a terrible approach at the plate who occasionally connects for a round tripper.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by cincinnati chili

Just to clarify, my post agrees with you on Cueto, Latos, and Chapman (even if he remains a reliever). I didn't include Phillips, but I see a good argument for him depending on how high your rate his defense. I don't like the argument for Bailey, unless what we saw in September and October is the standard going forward. No way on Cozart. I guess I'm fine with him being a stopgap (mostly for his defense) until something better comes along, but we're really talking about a replacement-level bat with a terrible approach at the plate who occasionally connects for a round tripper.

I can see your points, all.

I'd agree that if the Bailey we saw in the second half is the new Homer Bailey, he's as valuable as Cueto and Latos. But the first half Bailey is a step below.

I'd also point out that a Cozart with 30 extra obp points would be a perennial All-Star. .250/.320/.405/.725 with Gold Glove level defense at SS is of monstrous value, IMO. The trick is fining those extra 30 points of obp.

[M2]

Originally Posted by cincinnati chili

If I'm O'Dowd, I want Billy Hamilton and two serious pitching prospects in return for forfeiting 2 years of Fowler. I'm certainly not giving the Reds back any pitching that I think is going to turn into anything.

I'm sure O'Dowd wants all sorts of things. Unfortunately for him, he's not in a position to make steep demands. There's a glut of CFs on the market. No one, and I mean absolutely no one, is going to pay three top prospects for Fowler.

I like Fowler, a lot. I'd be thrilled if the Reds get him, but any deal for him is going to rely upon Dan O'Dowd coming to grips with where the market is. O'Dowd can walk away from the table, but if he wants to cash in Fowler for some pitching, and he really needs to, then his best option is probably taking what Walt Jocketty will give him. He's not getting Hamilton. He's not getting Stephenson. He might be able to get Corcino and Cingrani. Jocketty will try to make it only one of them. My guess is Jocketty will give in if he has to. However, Billy Beane probably is willing to do Coco Crisp for neither of those two prospects.

[cincinnati chili]

Originally Posted by M2

I'm sure O'Dowd wants all sorts of things. Unfortunately for him, he's not in a position to make steep demands. There's a glut of CFs on the market. No one, and I mean absolutely no one, is going to pay three top prospects for Fowler.

I can see you being correct about this. If so, O'Dowd should keep him another year and try to prevent Coors Field attendance from cratering. Two more years of Dexter Fowler is worth more to the Rockies than what you're talking about. He's not eligible for free agency until after 2014.

One thing to keep an eye on. A downside to Jason Giambi losing out on the managing job to Walt Weiss is that Fowler has lost his de-facto hitting coach and strength/conditioning coach. I'm not too worried about it, but his power surge wasn't the work of Carney Lansford.

Kudos to you for liking him early on. His rookie year, I thought he was overhyped, but I totally changed my tune after his first full year. I think my opinion shifted after I watched from the stands as he did this to Chase Utley.

Supposedly a great team guy too. Occasional frustrating brain lock as a baserunner, and for a guy so fast he's not that good of a base stealer. Otherwise, besides strikeouts which I really don't care about, there's not much to dislike about his game.

[M2]

Originally Posted by cincinnati chili

I can see you being correct about this. If so, O'Dowd should keep him another year and try to prevent Coors Field attendance from cratering. Two more years of Dexter Fowler is worth more to the Rockies than what you're talking about. He's not eligible for free agency until after 2014.

Fowler's trade value is only going to drop as he gets closer to free agency. The Rockies are woefully thin on pitching. If they can get an arm they really like (and maybe Corcino or Cingrani aren't), then they'd be passing on six years of a pitcher they desperately need for one year of Dexter Fowler.

The Rox can always bring in hitters to feast at Coor's (best fit for Josh Hamilton says me). Until then Fowler's got the same fundamental problem as Reds hitters from the Lost Decade: the answer to "But can he pitch?" is "No."

[Vottomatic]

I think the Rockies have a serious dilemma on their hands, if they're serious about rebuilding.

They're not going to get 3 top prospects/major leaguers for Fowler.
If they hold onto Fowler, they are another year removed from rebuilding and wasting time.
If they hold onto Fowler, his trade value drops as he gets closer to free agency in 2014.

I'm not saying take anything. But certainly they could get a decent pitcher or top pitching prospect for him, such as Cingrani or Leake.

They'll hold out for a haul and end up with nothing.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by M2

Fowler's trade value is only going to drop as he gets closer to free agency. The Rockies are woefully thin on pitching. If they can get an arm they really like (and maybe Corcino or Cingrani aren't), then they'd be passing on six years of a pitcher they desperately need for one year of Dexter Fowler.

The Rox can always bring in hitters to feast at Coor's (best fit for Josh Hamilton says me). Until then Fowler's got the same fundamental problem as Reds hitters from the Lost Decade: the answer to "But can he pitch?" is "No."

Brilliant idea. I don't know what their payroll would be but move Fowler for pitching and sign Hamilton would be awesome. Hamilton-Tulo-Cargo would be an AL worthy lineup.

I'd love to see Fowler go to Cincinnati and hit well for years to come. He could move to LF if Hamilton is ready in 2014.

Fowler
Phillips
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce
Frazier
Mez
Cozart

If Col took Leake, Stubbs and/or Masset the money could work out to acquire Ludwick as well. They might want another arm, say Lotzkar.