Dexter Fowler

[M2]

Originally Posted by Bill

Fowler reminds me, in a vague sense, of Roberto Kelly, in more ways than one.

Kelly rarely took a pitch. Fowler does. I'd say that makes them fundamentally different breeds.

[MikeS21]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I disagree.

I am as big a Billy Hamilton fan as anyone, but counting on him to be a contributor to the major league team in 2013 is a recipe for disaster, for a number of reasons.

1. He only has 50 games of experience in the high minors and almost no experience at his expected MLB defensive position.

2. Even the best prospects flop sometimes.

3. Even if they don't flop, prospects often take time to find success in the majors.

The Reds need a real plan to ensure they get some production out of CF in 2013, and 'wait for Billy' is not a real plan. If the Reds put all their eggs in the Billy basket, what do they do if Billy can't replicate his 2012 minor league success? Or what if puts up good numbers in the minors and then turns into Willy Taveras once he reaches the majors? 'Wait for Billy' is not a plan, it's operating without a net.

The Reds need to address their leadoff/CF issues with guys are legit major league contributors right now, not a kid who might be a contributor some day down the line. If Billy forces his way to majors and into the lineup, the Reds will have a pleasant problem to deal with (too many quality OF), but they need to cover their bases just in case he doesn't.

In a perfect world, I would agree with you 100%.

But baseball is still driven by attendance and money, and the PR value on Billy Hamilton is too great to pass up. If Hamilton shows ANY ability during Spring Training and April/May, the Reds are going to bring the cash cow to Cincinnati. Winning might put a few fans in the seats, but seeing Billy Hamilton will draw even more fans-just as fans come out to see the circus of Aroldis Chapman and his 100 mph fastball.

Fowler is a stop gap player-admittedly somewhat of an upgrade over Stubbs-who will lose trade value once he becomes Hamilton's back-up, and the rest of baseball sees him as a player the Reds HAVE to unload. The smart play is to fix LF, keep Phillips at leadoff, and stick with Stubbs in CF until Hamilton is ready.

I agree Hamilton has a LONG way to go before he should be promoted, and should not sniff the majors until he proves he can cut his K rate. I just have little confidence the Reds will exercise the proper patience to allow him to develop - especially in mid-summer when the DL gets populated, and the team needs a shot in the arm in order to keep up attendance.

[mdccclxix]

I guess I'm one of the only ones who thinks Fowler in LF is OK for a year or two. I also think Fowler and Ludwick could be obtained, you just have to clear some payroll with Bailey, Leake, Stubbs, Massett, or others.

FWIW, Mike Minor came up in talks for Fowler between the Rox and Braves. I'd think Mike Leake is a better offer than that.

[wally post]

I agree with you Mike. I think we need a RH power hitting left fielder. We badly need him. Stubbs or a Stubbs platoon in CF will suffice until we can bring up Hamilton if we can get a bopper in left field.

[Bill]

Originally Posted by M2

Kelly rarely took a pitch. Fowler does. I'd say that makes them fundamentally different breeds.

That is more concise then I was intending. By vague, I meant the possibility of dealing for a 26-27 year old CF whom would help but is perhaps overrated to the degree of dealing a player ready to put it all together.

Fowler's three year away splits concern me and I can see a Kelly like career for him. Sure, he would look good at the top of the order, but I too would see if a CF can come cheaper.

[cincinnati chili]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

You are correct. I'd say it is around a 50/50 proposition that Billy pans out in the bigs...which is typical for a great prospect.

Assuming he will be starting in CF come July is silly. It may happen, but we are talking about a kid who hasn't even hit AAA pitching yet.

I think 50/50 to "pan out" is about right. I think the odds are even more unfavorable to Hamilton ever performing at the rate that Fowler has performed over the last year and a half. Especially now that he's not a shortstop anymore.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I guess I'm one of the only ones who thinks Fowler in LF is OK for a year or two. I also think Fowler and Ludwick could be obtained, you just have to clear some payroll with Bailey, Leake, Stubbs, Massett, or others.

FWIW, Mike Minor came up in talks for Fowler between the Rox and Braves. I'd think Mike Leake is a better offer than that.

Agreed and agreed. Leake seems quite similar to Minor.

If the Reds could sign Ludwick to a 1 year deal and trade Leake and Stubbs for Fowler, that sounds pretty good to me.

Then, if/when Hamilton proves he's ready, Reds could have Fowler in LF for 2014-2015 or trade him for a "real" thumping LF.

My guess is Ludwick wants more than 1 year though, and then that complicates things.

[M2]

Originally Posted by wally post

I agree with you Mike. I think we need a RH power hitting left fielder. We badly need him. Stubbs or a Stubbs platoon in CF will suffice until we can bring up Hamilton if we can get a bopper in left field.

I have nothing against RH power hitters. I like RH power hitters. Yet I live in a city with an addiction to RH power hitters. Apparently they are solution to any problem the Red Sox might have. Need to overhaul the pitching? Sign Mike Napoli.

So I say this with decades of experience in listening to calls for more RH power hitters: you almost never need a RH power hitter. The Reds have plenty RH bats in the lineup (in fact probably one or two too many) and almost all of them have a fair amount of power.

[Wonderful Monds]

Guess we should pump the brakes on Fowler (and Crisp):
"Jocketty also cleared up rumors about the Reds' interest in Dexter Fowler and Coco Crisp, telling reporters, "We really haven’t talked to either club if that’s any indication. I’m not sure Colorado is moving Fowler." Jocketty said the Rockies have not brought up Homer Bailey's name to him, either.


Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...JHtxfi2uzdr.99 "

[mth123]

Originally Posted by RedEye

No one is saying this right now - but isn't there a chance that Billy Hamilton doesn't work out? That his bat doesn't end up playing in the big leagues? If so, then it makes sense to get a guy like Fowler, who is under club control till 2016 and complements the pieces already in place on the major league roster. He's both a current fix and a potential longer term solution to the team's problems. If Billy succeeds, then the team has a downright scary top of the lineup in front of Votto, Bruce and Frazier. If not, well, they've got Fowler - and that, to my mind, is a good thing. Not getting Fowler because Hamilton "is going to come up and dominate by September 2013" seems like like a iffy approach to me. I want the Reds to be good in April 2013.

No question that Hamilton could flop. Thing is, there is also a pretty decent chance that Aroldis Chapman in the rotation doesn't work out either. The Reds won 97 games last year with the problems we have in CF. They were below .500 when the rotation was weak. Nobody is a bigger skeptic where Stubbs is concerned than I am, but that position can be improved quite a bit by dealing spare parts and minor leaguers for the right role player(s). The Rotation should be kept strong with only a deal being considered if its an offer we can't refuse. That is not a guy who is a question mark away from his home park and a question mark defensively. The Reds don't need more guys who are Superman at home and Lois Lane on the road. Even if GABP would approximate Coors, I'd prefer a more consistent performer if I'm giving up a guy like Homer. The Reds can get flawed guys who can provide situationally dependent production for a fraction of that cost.

[RedsManRick]

I'm guessing the Reds are hoping to just bring back Ludwick and willing to wait out the market otherwise. As others have said, it's a buyers market for OF -- no need to rush.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm guessing the Reds are hoping to just bring back Ludwick and willing to wait out the market otherwise. As others have said, it's a buyers market for OF -- no need to rush.

Seems like it, and given how the team fared this year, a conservative approach might be the best approach.

[cincrazy]

Wonder if we can land Bourn on a short term contract like we did Madson last year? Doesn't look like he's getting the contract he was expecting.

[Vottomatic]

Based on payroll limitations, I think they possibly sign Ludwick if he'll do a 1-year deal (which I don't think he will). Then I think they will simply work to improve the team via trade, hoping to obtain a cheap young player still under control like Latos was.

[MikeS21]

Originally Posted by mth123

No question that Hamilton could flop. Thing is, there is also a pretty decent chance that Aroldis Chapman in the rotation doesn't work out either. The Reds won 97 games last year with the problems we have in CF. They were below .500 when the rotation was weak. Nobody is a bigger skeptic where Stubbs is concerned than I am, but that position can be improved quite a bit by dealing spare parts and minor leaguers for the right role player(s). The Rotation should be kept strong with only a deal being considered if its an offer we can't refuse. That is not a guy who is a question mark away from his home park and a question mark defensively. The Reds don't need more guys who are Superman at home and Lois Lane on the road. Even if GABP would approximate Coors, I'd prefer a more consistent performer if I'm giving up a guy like Homer. The Reds can get flawed guys who can provide situationally dependent production for a fraction of that cost.

I'm not "anti-Dexter Fowler." He would be somewhat of an upgrade over Drew Stubbs. My problem is trading someone like Homer Bailey for Fowler, when I know the Reds are going to push Hamilton for the PR it will bring.

But, as you said, this team won 97 games with Stubbs in CF. I do not feel as strong about replacing Stubbs as many folks do. I was around when they called for Caesar Geronimo's head as the "weakest link" back in the 70's. Stubbs isn't the main problem as long as they bat him down in the order. I certainly am satisfied to let him man CF until Billy Hamilton takes the job from him.