Is Now The Time To Trade Bailey?

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by RedsBaron

No (short answer)

(Longer answer): No one is untouchable. If the Reds had Mickey Mantle in his prime I wouldn't be looking to trade him but if I was offered Willie Mays and Juan Marichal I would make the trade.
I like pitching depth. If someone wants Homer I would want a good return.

Agreed.

I think the Reds are setting themselves up perfectly the more I think about it.

If they sign Ludwick, they have all positions filled.

1B Votto, backup Frazier
2B Phillips
SS Cozart, backup Gregorius
3B Frazier, backup Rolen or utility guy
LF Ludwick, backup Heisey
CF Stubbs, backup Heisey with B Hamilton in the wings
RF Bruce
C Hanigan, backup Mez

SP Cueto
SP Latos
SP Bailey
SP Arroyo
SP Chapman
SP Leake
Depth - Redmond, Cingrani, Corcino, Villareal, Sharky Rogers

CL Broxton, or possibly Chapman
RP - Marshall, Hoover, Lecure, Ondrusek, Arredondo, Simon?

Talk about continuity with guys in the wings.

The Reds don't really need to do any trades. This put them in position to consider trades without having to do anything. Which basically means they'd have to be overwhelmed to realistically consider a trade. I like being in that position.

[dfs]

Originally Posted by RedsBaron

If the Reds had Mickey Mantle in his prime I wouldn't be looking to trade him but if I was offered Willie Mays and Juan Marichal I would make the trade.
I like pitching depth. If someone wants Homer I would want a good return.

See the Matt Latos trade. Both teams "won" the trade.

[cumberlandreds]

I don't why you would want to trade Bailey when it finally looks like he has turned the corner and will be a really good, solid starter. The Reds have the makings of one whale of a good rotation. Latos,Cueto,Bailey,Chapman and for next season Arroyo. With Leake and Cingrani waiting in the wings. Also Stephenson in two to three seasons. Unless you get bowled over by a trade proposal, for someone like Giancarlo Stanton, I wouldn't touch any of those starters. The holes the Reds need filling can be done by signing free agents or trading other parts other than anyone in the rotation.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I don't think Bailey is necessarily an ace, but I do think he's a solid #2.

I think he could be a #2 here but I wouldn't count on that as long as Latos and Cueto are healthy. I do think he would be the de facto #1 on a team like the Rockies.

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

If there's anything that can stop a playoff caliber team from reaching the playoffs, it's injuries, particularly to the pitching staff. If you trade Bailey, an injury to the rotation means that you're using LeCure, Redmond, Villarreal, et al for an extended period of time--and that's taking for granted that Chapman will be an effective starter.

The Reds were very, very fortunate last year since none of the starters missed time due to injuries. That's not something you can count on for next year or the year after. I'm ambivalent on trading him to COLO for Fowler. I see the need for a true leadoff hitter but I'd hate to give up pitching depth - especially if Homer continues his success from late last year.

Perhaps Homer would like to go someplace where he can be the big kahuna. If he stays here, he's 2 injuries - maybe 3 if Chapman starts - from being the #1 guy here. He's been a constant source of ire from fans here so perhaps he would want to go elsewhere where he can get a fresh start and be the man. Not that he has any say in the matter now but if the Reds are pushing him to sign a long term deal, he may tell his agent to not agree to anything because he wants to test the free agent waters. If he doesn't sign long-term, the Reds might just trade him.

[PickOff]

He is the best chip to deal to improve the Reds' offense. By moving Bailey you basically have the same rotation as last year except for Chapmen replacing Bailey. That seems likely to be about the same. Factor in Bailey's health issues in the past, if the Reds can get a not over the hill stud outfielder like Upton such a trade could be what puts the Reds over the top. The Reds would still have 3 TOR starters come playoffs without him.

That said, it is great to have the starting pitching depth the Reds enjoy with Bailey in the fold. It would be a risky move. At the end of the day I don't see it happening; there really don't seem to be any strong partners for such a trade.

[vaticanplum]

The Broxton signing says to me that the Reds don't intend to do that much with their core pitching, both starters and relievers. I expect (hope) that they will move Leake, but I think that will be the only really major move. I would like more depth to shore everything up until we know how durable and effective Chapman is as a starter.

I get this. I'm in the no-one-is-untradeable camp ultimately. The Reds have comparatively few holes to fill, but the ones they do are ones with few candidates who will require a lot to get them. I see their most golden legitimate trading chips right now to be Bailey and Hamilton, and I really doubt they'd deal Hamilton. Bailey is more likely, but I think they'll only do it if they get a real stud to fill center field or perhaps shortstop. Honestly, I don't think that will happen. Their pitching is, for once, something they don't have to worry a lot about right now, so for the most part I think they are tending toward leaving it alone (and thus possibly not filling those few holes).

[bucksfan2]

I run the gambit on Bailey. There were times that I was finished with him and times I was enamored with him. Right now I think I would rather trade Cueto than Bailey. He really matured down the stretch last season and was their best pitcher as the season closed. Something clicked for him last year and he really took off.

I would extend both Bailey and Latos now and not think twice about it. Both are protypical power pitchers and have the frames to go along with it. I think that if Chapman gives the Reds anything similar to what Bailey did last year most of us would be thrilled. It was a roller coaster ride with Homer for the first handful of years but now is the time to reap what he has become.