Centerfield 2013

[corkedbat]

Threqad on the Sun Deck saying that Tracy Jones claimed tonight that the Reds & Red Sox were close to a deal that would send Jacoby Ellsbury to Cincy. Ostensibly, the return for Boston would be Stubbs and Corcino.

Not sure if I'm buying it, but if this were the 2013 Cincinnati Reds, I wouldn't complain.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2B Brandon Phillips
1B Joey Votto
LF Ryan Ludwick
RF Jay Bruce
3B Todd Frazier
SS Zach Cozart
CA Ryan Hanigan

IF Didi Gregorious/Emmanuel Burris
IF Scott Rolen/Jack Hanrahan ?
OF Chris Heisey
OF Xavier Paul
CA Devin Mesaraco

S1 Jonny Cueto
S2 Mat Latos
S3 Aroldis Chapman
S4 Homer Bailey
S5 Bronson Arroyo
LR Mike Leake
MR Sam Lecure/Logan Ondrusek/Alfredo Simon
R7 Nick Massett/Jose Arredondo
L7 Tony Cingrani
R8 JJ Hoover
L8 Sean Marshall
CL Jonathan Broxton

[Vottomatic]

Reds lose Arroyo after 2013. Reds will still have Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Leake, and Chapman, with Corcino and Cingrani immediately in the wings, and Stephenson a few years further out.

Reds might see some deadline offers next season if Corcino and Cingrani rake in triple A.

Let the bidders come to us later if the offers aren't in our favor now.

[corkedbat]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Reds lose Arroyo after 2013. Reds will still have Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Leake, and Chapman, with Corcino and Cingrani immediately in the wings, and Stephenson a few years further out.

Reds might see some deadline offers next season if Corcino and Cingrani rake in triple A.

Let the bidders come to us later if the offers aren't in our favor now.

I've said for sometime that Corcino and Cingrani would probably battle for Arroyo's spot come ST 2014. They still may fight for a roster spot in 2014, but I'm not as certain that it will be Arroyo's spot anymore. While letting him walk after 2013would probably be the smart play (and probably will happen), I'm not so sure that Walt and/or BCast don't offer him another contract if he has a solid season this year. Could make them more comfortable in dealing Corcino or Cingrani this offseason.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Kc61

For the Reds to rest on their laurels would be a terrible, terrible mistake.

They won 97 games but played the Cubs and Astros about 36 times. They were fortunate to play in a division with two of the weakest teams in baseball, and the Reds took full advantage.

The Reds also had an amazing steak of good luck with the health of their starting pitching. And their closer was Hall of Fame quality, at least for one year. Next season they may have to rely more on offense.

With the Reds' OBP needs and failures against RHP, I just can't see the Stubbs/Heisey tandem in CF again.

How the Reds go about fixing it is a good question, there are alternatives, but sitting on their hands to me isn't a good option.

Again, I'm fine with improvements, but I don't want to see marginal improvements that hurt the long-term goals. Trading away a top pitching prospects (or a very solid mlb starter) to get a "possible" improvement out of CF/Leadoff is not an improvement in my book. It may be a step forward for 2013, but it's 2 steps backwards for beyond 2013. This team can STILL make changes midseason. After we've got a better idea of what Aroldis brings to the table, where we stand on Homer/Mat's contracts, etc, etc, etc.

Most of the guys I've seen put forward here in regards to the CF slot are big question marks in my opinion. Fowler looks to be a mile-high mirage. Span has very limited power and hits for a modest average (a possible improvement over Stubbs...and quite possibly a HUGE step backwards). Victorino, color me unimpressed. Upton I think is overpriced dramatically because I don't see him maintaining what he's done. Pagan is a Span clone...screams role-player to me to be honest. I don't think any of them (outside of Upton) has the ceiling that Stubbs has.

A legitimate improvement like a Choo is more than welcome...but it'll cost a fortune. And unless an extension is figured out, a 1 year rental that costs us future wins with the prospect cost, is a net loss in my eyes.

Basically put, thus far I haven't seen a realistic deal put forth here that isn't us overpaying or isn't so unrealistic that it's laughable. I hope Jocketty pulls a rabbit out of his hat, but if he doesn't, I still think this team as constructed wins back-to-back central crowns.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Reds lose Arroyo after 2013. Reds will still have Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Leake, and Chapman, with Corcino and Cingrani immediately in the wings, and Stephenson a few years further out.

Reds might see some deadline offers next season if Corcino and Cingrani rake in triple A.

Let the bidders come to us later if the offers aren't in our favor now.

Originally Posted by corkedbat

I've said for sometime that Corcino and Cingrani would probably battle for Arroyo's spot come ST 2014. They still may fight for a roster spot in 2014, but I'm not as certain that it will be Arroyo's spot anymore. While letting him walk after 2013would probably be the smart play (and probably will happen), I'm not so sure that Walt and/or BCast don't offer him another contract if he has a solid season this year. Could make them more comfortable in dealing Corcino or Cingrani this offseason.

Agree with both of these. Only difference is I wait to see what Bronson, Latos & Bailey's contract plans are before I do anything with Corcino or Cingrani. If Bronson gets extended (and Latos/Bailey) I'm much more open to dealing BOTH C's...and definitely one. But if we can't extend Homer...and Bronson opts to leave...we're going to wish we had both the kids. I think all 3 of those contract issues will be dealt with sometime by midseason...or at least have been talked about so we have some clue of where we stand.

[M2]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

The CF situation is certainly cause for concern, but I think Stubbs bounces back some. And if he's hitting lower in the order, I think he'll be fine.

Stubbs has forfeited the right to face RHPs. He's overmatched against them, always has been. That's not going to bounce back because it's a skill he doesn't have.

Originally Posted by corkedbat

Thread on the Sun Deck saying that Tracy Jones claimed tonight that the Reds & Red Sox were close to a deal that would send Jacoby Ellsbury to Cincy. Ostensibly, the return for Boston would be Stubbs and Corcino.

I'd be mildly stunned if that went down. Got major misgivings about Ellsbury, but that wouldn't be such a bad price.

Anyway, let's see if this rumor gains any legs tomorrow.

[Scrap Irony]

Ellsbury, 29, has a career 162-game slash line of .297/ .349/ .442/ .791, with 53 SB and 12 CS, 16 HR, and 73 RBI. He's the typical Jocketty type, in that he's shown great talent in the past, but has fallen on hard times due to injury. If it's for Stubbs and Corcino, this is a no-brainer.

[Tom Servo]

Honestly, has Tracy Jones ever been right about any rumors, ever?

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Ellsbury, 29, has a career 162-game slash line of .297/ .349/ .442/ .791, with 53 SB and 12 CS, 16 HR, and 73 RBI. He's the typical Jocketty type, in that he's shown great talent in the past, but has fallen on hard times due to injury. If it's for Stubbs and Corcino, this is a no-brainer.

Yes, classic Jocketty acquisition -- buying low on a legit big-time talent and not being afraid of seeing him walk (and willing to try to sign him if it works out). It's one of many reasons the Ellsbury talk rings a little true to me.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by M2

Last year was, arguably, the best Reds pitching team most of us have ever seen. I'm not sure it gets much better than that. The run differential and wins total was a result of run prevention. The offense was slightly below average.

And the most glaring hole for the offense was production from the leadoff hitters (if you want to look at it from a lineup perspective) and CF (if you want to look at it from a positional perspective). Getting a CF who can hit at the top of the lineup fills both holes. It's pretty imperative that Walt get this done.

I'm not totally disagreeing, but assuming they sign Ludwick, there will be no need to hit Phillips cleanup, he can leadoff. Frasier also has established himself as a presentable #6 hitter. The Reds now have the luxury of batting Stubbs #8, just like in the playoffs. Now, we can expect there to be times during the year when Dusty gives Stubbs another chance at the top of the order, but having Phillips at the top of the order for the entire season (as opposed to cleanup) fixes one tablesetter slot.

I think I could live with Cozart in the #2 slot.

So I would love to get a leadoff CF, but I don't see it as imperative, if Ludwick is signed. As far as bang-for-the-buck, the Reds might be better off spending resources on another bullpen arm as opposed to trading/signing a CF.
Of course, the object of the game is not to maximize bang for the buck though

Ellsbury rental would be a dream .

[lollipopcurve]

Highly unlikely this will happen, IMO. I don't see the Red Sox wanting Stubbs -- they have Victorino behind Ellsbury, Jackie Bradley in AA and rising, and Ryan Kalish still hanging around. Acquiring Stubbs would just add confusion. And I doubt Corcino carries the day against any other pitching they could get for Ellsbury.

Ellsbury makes great sense for the Reds, but I think they'd have to give up more pitching to get him.

[M2]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I don't see the Red Sox wanting Stubbs

I'd normally agree, but he bats right-handed and can hit a few HRs. The Sox can't scratch that itch enough. Plus, Bradley is at least a year away.

[NJReds]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Ellsbury, 29, has a career 162-game slash line of .297/ .349/ .442/ .791, with 53 SB and 12 CS, 16 HR, and 73 RBI. He's the typical Jocketty type, in that he's shown great talent in the past, but has fallen on hard times due to injury. If it's for Stubbs and Corcino, this is a no-brainer.

It takes him three seasons to play 162 games. His near-MVP season is the exception to his otherwise good but not great career.

That said, I'm fine with Stubbs and Corcino. But not for Bailey and certainly not Latos (as Olney reported was the asking price).

[Benihana]

The asking price for Fowler was reportedly Minor and either Teheran or Delgado.

That is akin to Leake and Cingrani. Unless Pomeranz is coming back also, I'd pass.

[lollipopcurve]

I'd normally agree, but he bats right-handed and can hit a few HRs. The Sox can't scratch that itch enough. Plus, Bradley is at least a year away.

I think the Gomes-Napoli-Ross signings were primarily about character. They like the RH power, I know, but my sense is that they're desperate to get rah-rah blue collar guys, and Stubbs doesn't fit there, either. Problem with Bradley is that he'll be ready while they would still control Stubbs for a couple years. I really think the Sox would want to maximize the pitching return for Ellsbury, or get a legit catching prospect.