Revere to the Phillies

[OneManBand]

Originally Posted by Alpha Zero

For Vance Worley.

Worley is pretty comparable to Leake. I don't think I would have given up Leake for Revere. His walk rate is pretty bad, and he has zero power. He is under team control for a while and can steal bases, but I don't think he would have been the answer to the lead off spot. It's still a notable acquisition from the Reds' perspective though because it's one more name off the board.

UPDATE: Pitching prospect Trevor May is also heading to Minnesota. I'm not familiar with the Phillies' system, but he doesn't look like much to me. He's young but has struggled mightily with control.

Sorry but Vance isn't like Mike Leake.. He is a solid #4 and possibly #3. He could probably be more compared to Homer Bailey. His health is a concern but I think the Twins got a good arm for a good defender/bat. The Reds match up better with Colorado in my opinion for Dexter Fowler.

[Hondo]

The only thing I want to add is that the packages that were given for Span and Revere are no where close to what you guys have been saying the Reds sould've had to give up for either...

Furthermore, you have got to believe Walt has already gotten something lined out for CF/LF/Lead-Off because he would've probably gotten Span if that was available for a package similar to what the Nationals gave up...

Stay Tuned for HUGE NEWS hopefully!

[Alpha Zero]

Originally Posted by OneManBand

Sorry but Vance isn't like Mike Leake.. He is a solid #4 and possibly #3. He could probably be more compared to Homer Bailey. His health is a concern but I think the Twins got a good arm for a good defender/bat. The Reds match up better with Colorado in my opinion for Dexter Fowler.

As you said, health is a concern with Worley. He had a good 2011 but regressed quite a bit in 2012. Leake did the same. For their careers, most of their peripherals are pretty close:

K/BB - Leake: 2.54, Worley: 2.45
WHIP - Leake: 1.33, Worley: 1.35
K/9 - Leake: 6.0, Worley: 7.7
BB/9 - Leake: 2.4, Worley: 3.3
HR/9 - Leake: 1.3, Worley: 0.7
GB/FB - Leake: 0.98, Worley: 0.77

So Worley gets a few more K's but Leake has better control, so their K/BB ratios come out to be roughly equal. Their WHIPs are also just about equal. Leake has a much better ground ball rate, but also allows HRs at a much higher rate. Remember too that Leake is a superior hitter for a pitcher, which has some value to an NL club. Worley has obviously posted better results (i.e. ERA) than Leake so far, but I still think their pretty close to equivalent.

I actually think Leake is pretty underrated. Remember that this is a guy who had a great start to his rookie year and a very good sophmore year (3.86 ERA) while skipping the minors entirely. Yes, he struggled some in 2012, but nothing in his peripherals suggests that he won't bounce back and post an ERA a little under 4.00 next year.

[BluegrassRedleg]

Originally Posted by Alpha Zero

As you said, health is a concern with Worley. He had a good 2011 but regressed quite a bit in 2012. Leake did the same. For their careers, most of their peripherals are pretty close:

K/BB - Leake: 2.54, Worley: 2.45
WHIP - Leake: 1.33, Worley: 1.35
K/9 - Leake: 6.0, Worley: 7.7
BB/9 - Leake: 2.4, Worley: 3.3
HR/9 - Leake: 1.3, Worley: 0.7
GB/FB - Leake: 0.98, Worley: 0.77

So Worley gets a few more K's but Leake has better control, so their K/BB ratios come out to be roughly equal. Their WHIPs are also just about equal. Leake has a much better ground ball rate, but also allows HRs at a much higher rate. Remember too that Leake is a superior hitter for a pitcher, which has some value to an NL club. Worley has obviously posted better results (i.e. ERA) than Leake so far, but I still think their pretty close to equivalent.

I actually think Leake is pretty underrated. Remember that this is a guy who had a great start to his rookie year and a very good sophmore year (3.86 ERA) while skipping the minors entirely. Yes, he struggled some in 2012, but nothing in his peripherals suggests that he won't bounce back and post an ERA a little under 4.00 next year.

Closer than I suspected, but K and HR/9 are pretty substantial differences.

[Alpha Zero]

Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg

Closer than I suspected, but K and HR/9 are pretty substantial differences.

The HR/9 is really the biggest difference between the 2 guys. I tend to care a lot more about K/BB than I do K/9.