Breakout Prospect of the Year

[lollipopcurve]

I think Drew Cisco may establish himself as a legitimate SP prospect in 2013. Back end guy, like Leake, but it seems he may have consistently plus pitchability.

[JaxRed]

Originally Posted by 19braves77

Wes Mugarian

Noticed on last years poll you chose Wes also, and that he was born in Pensacola...... friend or relative?

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT

My vote is for Winker. His line at Billings is similar to Votto's at that level and age except that Jesse's plate discipline was even better. I was tempted to vote for Langfield. He had excellent peripherals at Billings and I would not be surprised if he ends the year in AA.

I like the Langfield pick.

[Red Swagger]

Henry Rodriguez

[11larkin11]

I think this is the year that Ryan Lamarre finally gets the power to go along with his OBP, speed, and defense.

[texasdave]

The Cisco Kid.

[RedsManRick]

I went Winker. He's a big, young, strong kid with a decent idea of what he's doing at the plate.

[Wonderful Monds]

I'll say Amir Garrett, to pick someone different.

[Scrap Irony]

Tucker Barnhart. (Though it's way too early to be doing this, IMO.)

If not he, I still like Juan Perez who basically skipped Billings two years ago, then took half a season in Dayton to find his stroke. A middle infielder who might OP 800 in the majors with good patience, a decent idea of how to handle the bat, and okay speed? I'll take that.

At what point do Steve Selsky and Bryson Smith begin to count? If you consider more of the same from both but at a higher level, add them as well. Smith has a BA-driven OBP and a little pop. He won't K much, but needs to walk more. Selsky hits at a high BA rate and with good power. His Ks aren't out of whack either. I think Smith might take over for Hamilton in AA and put up a line of .300/ .345/ .425, while Selsky goes .310 /.350/ .500. Both are too old for their respective leagues and might be pushed forward. (Selsky moreso than Smith.)

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by klw

My pick is Neftali Soto. I guess you could argue that 2011 was his breakout season but with his adjustment year this year I think he is in a position this year to have a breakout year. He will be 24 and in his second season at AAA. Hopefully if he stays healthy he can return to a 30 homer season.

I don't think Soto will be ever be considered an ELITE prospect due to his lack of defensive skills and his age (elite prospects are already in the majors by his age).

That said, I do think he is still a viable prospect and might be able to help the Reds as a righty power bat off the bench or as trade bait. I would like to see Louisville use him in the OF next year just to see if he can fill a 'four corners' sub role, since there clearly aren't going to be a lot of at bats for him with the big league team as a 1B (barring injury).

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Tucker Barnhart. (Though it's way too early to be doing this, IMO.)

If not he, I still like Juan Perez who basically skipped Billings two years ago, then took half a season in Dayton to find his stroke. A middle infielder who might OP 800 in the majors with good patience, a decent idea of how to handle the bat, and okay speed? I'll take that.

I posted about it over at my website just last week, but around the first week of June Juan Perez made some swing changes and that is right around the time that his hitting numbers starting picking up. He really calmed things down in his swing, lost a big leg kick, dropped his hands and elbow a little bit.

[mdccclxix]

I'm a little surprised no one is taking Travieso. Like last year with Stephenson, you can't forget about the kid. He's got a nice mix of pitches and can reach 98. His arm has very little work on it. Could be a fast riser. I would have taken him if Winker wasn't so strong in his debut. I think now Winker may have already broken out, so maybe he shouldn't be on this list. I like the Lamarre and Langfield mentions. Rodriguez doesn't strike me as a guy that will climb above where we would expect him to be.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

I'm a little surprised no one is taking Travieso. Like last year with Stephenson, you can't forget about the kid. He's got a nice mix of pitches and can reach 98. His arm has very little work on it. Could be a fast riser. I would have taken him if Winker wasn't so strong in his debut. I think now Winker may have already broken out, so maybe he shouldn't be on this list. I like the Lamarre and Langfield mentions. Rodriguez doesn't strike me as a guy that will climb above where we would expect him to be.

With Travieso, it will be interesting. There is no chance that he begins the year in Dayton. It is real tough to vault up when you don't play until the middle of June. Stephenson made such a move, but it is very rare. I wouldn't bank on Travieso doing it just yet. Hopeful that he can, but I wouldn't bank on it for 2013.

What I get surprised by is when we are looking for already well regarded guys to jump up rather than guys who are under the radar who could jump up.

[nheath22]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

At what point do Steve Selsky and Bryson Smith begin to count? If you consider more of the same from both but at a higher level, add them as well. Smith has a BA-driven OBP and a little pop. He won't K much, but needs to walk more. Selsky hits at a high BA rate and with good power. His Ks aren't out of whack either. I think Smith might take over for Hamilton in AA and put up a line of .300/ .345/ .425, while Selsky goes .310 /.350/ .500. Both are too old for their respective leagues and might be pushed forward. (Selsky moreso than Smith.)

I agree with your analysis of Steve Selsky and he is my pick to move up the prospect ranks this year. I know he is still very young and only in A ball currently, but after watching him in Dayton a couple of times this year, the kid can hit and has a lot of potential. Based on the way he finished the season with Bakersfield, winning the Reds minor league hitter of the year, I think he will continue to move up the prospects boards next season.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by nheath22

I agree with your analysis of Steve Selsky and he is my pick to move up the prospect ranks this year. I know he is still very young and only in A ball currently, but after watching him in Dayton a couple of times this year, the kid can hit and has a lot of potential. Based on the way he finished the season with Bakersfield, winning the Reds minor league hitter of the year, I think he will continue to move up the prospects boards next season.

I am still skeptical about Selsky. Here is why:

Late round pick
Hit in Arizona (hitters paradise)
Hit in the Pioneer League (hitters paradise)
Didn't hit much in the Midwest League (neutral environment)
Hit in the California League (hitters paradise)

So he is a guy who has hit well when he was in very hitter friendly leagues, but didn't do much in the only neutral league he has played in so far.

With that said, his time in Dayton, where he didn't really hit well, is the only place he showed poor plate discipline too. Breaking balls aren't quite as sharp in a lot of the California League stadiums, so that could be a tiny part of it, but it is interesting that his plate discipline was much stronger at a higher level in 2012 than it was in Dayton. You wouldn't really expect that.

There is some intrigue there. Swing looks a lot like that of Heisey. I am just not ready to fully buy in yet.