Breakout Prospect of the Year

[lollipopcurve]

I've liked Selsky all along. More athletic than he's given credit for. I liked what I saw of him in Dayton. I think his power is legit -- he's a rangy guy with some leverage to his swing. I believe he missed a year with injury in college. Had that not happened, he'd have been a higher draft.

[camisadelgolf]

Selsky has the tools to be a fourth outfielder--something I wouldn't say about Bryson Smith. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but we should take Selsky's excellent production with a grain of salt.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

I've liked Selsky all along. More athletic than he's given credit for. I liked what I saw of him in Dayton. I think his power is legit -- he's a rangy guy with some leverage to his swing. I believe he missed a year with injury in college. Had that not happened, he'd have been a higher draft.

Don't get me wrong, I like him. I have him as a Top 40 prospect. I am just not sure he is more than a Chris Heisey type of guy at the plate, but with less defensive value. Solid prospect, useful guy with Major League potential. Just unsure that he is anything more than that.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Selsky has the tools to be a fourth outfielder--something I wouldn't say about Bryson Smith. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but we should take Selsky's excellent production with a grain of salt.

Does this mean you like Smith more or less than Selsky? I can't read into it either way.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

Selsky has the tools to be a fourth outfielder--something I wouldn't say about Bryson Smith. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but we should take Selsky's excellent production with a grain of salt.

Exactly. If we're lucky, Selsky could be another in the long line of Chris Heisey, Brady Clark, Chris Denorfia, Mike Frank, Steve Gibraltar, Ben Broussard and Dave Sappelt- overachieving outfielders that may someday make the show as a 4th OF (which is not nothing) but fool some into believing they could be a longterm starting OF in the major leagues due to their overperformance in the low-to-mid-minors.

I'd probably put Bryson Smith in this boat as well.

It sounds bad and/or intellectually lazy to say, but if a guy is drafted after the 12th round, doesn't play a premium defensive position and/or doesn't have the projectable frame, he is going to have to do A WHOLE LOT as far as sustained performance in order for me to take him seriously as a potential major league starter- especially at a non-premium defensive position. Sure 1 of 1000 breaks out, but we have to remember its 1 out of 1000.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Does this mean you like Smith more or less than Selsky? I can't read into it either way.

I like Selsky's ceiling more than Smith's. I'm not expecting much out of either of them at the MLB level (would love to be proved wrong though), but if I had to pick which one is going to have a noteworthy MLB career, I'd go with Selsky.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by camisadelgolf

I like Selsky's ceiling more than Smith's. I'm not expecting much out of either of them at the MLB level (would love to be proved wrong though), but if I had to pick which one is going to have a noteworthy MLB career, I'd go with Selsky.

See, I am on the other side of the boat. Selsky probably has the higher ceiling, but I like the floor of Smith a whole lot more because he can play center and is a high rate of contact hitter. Better profile as a backup outfielder for me.

[camisadelgolf]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

See, I am on the other side of the boat. Selsky probably has the higher ceiling, but I like the floor of Smith a whole lot more because he can play center and is a high rate of contact hitter. Better profile as a backup outfielder for me.

Yeah, I see it pretty much the same way. It's just semantics at this point. A higher floor doesn't really do anything for me when it comes to prospects like this.

[Ohayou]

Guillon. I also really like Waldrop/Cisco. And Winker, of course.

[powersackers]

Donald Lutz. Not even mentioned by any of you yet. He's the next impact Major Leaguer that hasn't debuted yet but will.

[redsof72]

Same guy as I suggested last year...Chad Rogers. Not sure why he is not getting his due credit. Donald Lutz is a good call too. I have not seem him yet but many say that Sal Romano could really come on, although it may take him a while to get there.

Selsky will be an interesting player to watch this season in light of his exceptional second half in a great hitter's environment. He is a good all-around ballplayer but not exceptional in any area. Comparisons to Heisey as a hitter may be valid but I do not think they are similar players defensively. Selsky has solid but not exceptional baseball skills in the outfield but he is nowhere near as athletic as Heisey. Not even close.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by powersackers

Donald Lutz. Not even mentioned by any of you yet. He's the next impact Major Leaguer that hasn't debuted yet but will.

The org thinks of him as a younger player since he started so late. As a lefty, he could potentially take on LF in 2015 if he can stick.

[Benihana]

Originally Posted by redsof72

Same guy as I suggested last year...Chad Rogers. Not sure why he is not getting his due credit. Donald Lutz is a good call too. I have not seem him yet but many say that Sal Romano could really come on, although it may take him a while to get there.

Selsky will be an interesting player to watch this season in light of his exceptional second half in a great hitter's environment. He is a good all-around ballplayer but not exceptional in any area. Comparisons to Heisey as a hitter may be valid but I do not think they are similar players defensively. Selsky has solid but not exceptional baseball skills in the outfield but he is nowhere near as athletic as Heisey. Not even close.

Do you think Rogers can be a #3 starter in the majors? Everything I've seen and/or heard has him as a #5 or bullpen guy.

[corkedbat]

Went with YRod for no other reason than a breakout year for him would be the best thing for the system. Enormous potential, but not a lot of production as of yet. Seemed to somewhat come around after his extended Spring Training stint last year - hope he can build upon it. More of a prayer than a prediction actually.

[redsof72]

Originally Posted by Benihana

Do you think Rogers can be a #3 starter in the majors? Everything I've seen and/or heard has him as a #5 or bullpen guy.

Not sure yet. I think it is hard to project the difference between a #3 and a #5. Mike Leake was the Reds #5 in 2012. In 2011, he was probably their second best starter. Homer Bailey was a #4 in 2012 and in 2011 he was probably #3 even though he actually was better in 2012.

I guess when someone says they project a guy as a #5, that is a way of saying they are not totally sold on the idea that, with his mix of pitches, he can get the same hitter out multiple times in the same game and that he might wind up in the bullpen where he only has to show the hitter his stuff one time.

Rogers has a big league arm for sure. He might be Sam Lecure. He might be something a little more than that. He might be something much more than that.

As we have discussed before, there is not nearly as much consensus on prospects among scouts as you would think. Example: What is the projection for Daniel Corcino? Based on what I read, maybe a #3 starter? I have probably talked to 20 scouts who watched Corcino pitch and at least half said future reliever. He may turn out to be better than a #3, but there are many scouts that do not see him as even a 5.