Centerfield 2013

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Rojo

Frankly, I want players and coaches believing it.

Read the Brian Downing section in Bill James's last Historical Abstract. Inspirational.

Interesting. Could you give me a massively abridged version of what James says about Downing?

[powersackers]

Has Stubbs ever put up one month of stats that live up to his pedigree?

[Superdude]

Originally Posted by powersackers

Has Stubbs ever put up one month of stats that live up to his pedigree?

What was his pedigree? I'd say 2010 was about as much as anyone expected.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by powersackers

Has Stubbs ever put up one month of stats that live up to his pedigree?

There was a month or so after the All-Star break last year where he was pretty awesome. Without stretch he would have been really abysmal at the plate.

Then again, if you consider that his pedigree coming out in the draft was something like "super fast and athletic outfielder with great power potential and serious contact issues" (obviously I'm paraphrasing) then I suppose he fits it to a tee.

[Kc61]

Stubbs line against righties last year was .186/.259/.282/.541.

[mdccclxix]

Originally Posted by Kc61

Stubbs line against righties last year was .186/.259/.282/.541.

That looks like a terminal diagnosis to me.

[RedsManRick]

It's worth noting that despite hitting more groundballs than ever in 2012 (GB have the highest natural BABIP), Stubbs BABIP dropped 50 points last year, 40 points below his prior career average. Because he still had a .290 BABIP, that's easy to overlook. We might just say that he was getting lucky before last year. But elite speed is one of those things that correlates with a reliably higher than average BABIP. So what happened?

In 2012, he had a .241 BABIP on GB. In 2011 that was .328. In 2010 that was .360. In 2009 that was .315.

One of a few things happened.
- He start hitting a lot more weak grounders
- Teams started defending him very differently
- He stopped being really freaking fast

If that overall BABIP went back up to .330, that's going to be about 25 points of AVG/OBP and 30 to 40 points of slugging. Then he's looking at a line of .240/.310/.370. That's certainly nobody's idea of a star, particularly against RHP, but it's easily playable.

I think we've attributed too much of Stubbs' decline to his contact issues and not accounted enough for what looks to be a a nice helping of bad luck. That's not to say we shouldn't be worried about his contact issues or trying to improve in CF, just more even handed in our narrative.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

It's worth noting that despite hitting more groundballs than ever in 2012 (GB have the highest natural BABIP), Stubbs BABIP dropped 50 points last year, 40 points below his prior career average. Because he still had a .290 BABIP, that's easy to overlook. We might just say that he was getting lucky before last year. But elite speed is one of those things that correlates with a reliably higher than average BABIP. So what happened?

In 2012, he had a .241 BABIP on GB. In 2011 that was .328. In 2010 that was .360. In 2009 that was .315.

One of a few things happened.
- He start hitting a lot more weak grounders
- Teams started defending him very differently
- He stopped being really freaking fast

If that overall BABIP went back up to .330, that's going to be about 25 points of AVG/OBP and 30 to 40 points of slugging. Then he's looking at a line of .240/.310/.370. That's certainly nobody's idea of a star, particularly against RHP, but it's easily playable.

I think we've attributed too much of Stubbs' decline to his contact issues and not accounted enough for what looks to be a a nice helping of bad luck. That's not to say we shouldn't be worried about his contact issues or trying to improve in CF, just more even handed in our narrative.

So if the stars align, if things go well, Stubbs can become a .680 OPS hitter.

I don't think that's a very strong case for keeping him as a regular player.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Kc61

So if the stars align, if things go well, Stubbs can become a .680 OPS hitter.

I don't think that's a very strong case for keeping him as a regular player.

I agree. But I don't think anyone is arguing he should continue being a regular player. I think we're just trying to figure out why Reds management seems to be toying with the idea of throwing him out there again in 2013.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by RedEye

I agree. But I don't think anyone is arguing he should continue being a regular player. I think we're just trying to figure out why Reds management seems to be toying with the idea of throwing him out there again in 2013.

And, FWIW, I have no problem with Stubbs being on the team as a platoon man in CF. He might be a little expensive for that role, but as a player I'm fine with that.

While I admire much about Chris Heisey, my own opinion is that Stubbs is preferable to keep around. Love his defense, he's an adequate hitter against lefties. Just needs a LHH partner out there.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Kc61

And, FWIW, I have no problem with Stubbs being on the team as a platoon man in CF. He might be a little expensive for that role, but as a player I'm fine with that.

While I admire much about Chris Heisey, my own opinion is that Stubbs is preferable to keep around. Love his defense, he's an adequate hitter against lefties. Just needs a LHH partner out there.

Stubbs would be a perfect 4th OF / late inning D replacement. He's like Super Herm Winningham!

[Rojo]

Originally Posted by RedEye

Interesting. Could you give me a massively abridged version of what James says about Downing?

I lived in SoCal and would catch an occassional Angels game on TV. I didn't follow closely but I noticed the same thing about Downing that James outlines.

Downing came up as a sort of pudgy, non-remarkable part-time catcher. After five seasons with the White Sox, he was thrown in to a multiplayer trade to the Angels. After one lackluster season with the Angels, he put up a 142 OPS in 1979 at age 28. He then got hurt and played in 30 games the next season.

At age 30 he came back from injury as a big, slow, injury-hobbled leftfielder. It seemed like a desperate move to salvage his career. But he could always pick up walks, he now added power and by the end of the season he was the Angels lead-off hitter. Over the next 11 full seasons (up to age 41) his OB never fell below .350, usually hitting lead-off.

As James points out he morphed from a pudgy-faced guy with sandy blond hair to a dark-haired Christopher Reeves clone. He stopped wearing glasses. He didn't get contacts, he just stopped wearing glasses.

In retrospect he might've been a PED candidate, but he would've been a very early adopter. And his numbers weren't eye-popping.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by Rojo

I lived in SoCal and would catch an occassional Angels game on TV. I didn't follow closely but I noticed the same thing about Downing that James outlines.

Downing came up as a sort of pudgy, non-remarkable part-time catcher. After five seasons with the White Sox, he was thrown in to a multiplayer trade to the Angels. After one lackluster season with the Angels, he put up a 142 OPS in 1979 at age 28. He then got hurt and played in 30 games the next season.

At age 30 he came back from injury as a big, slow, injury-hobbled leftfielder. It seemed like a desperate move to salvage his career. But he could always pick up walks, he now added power and by the end of the season he was the Angels lead-off hitter. Over the next 11 full seasons (up to age 41) his OB never fell below .350, usually hitting lead-off.

As James points out he morphed from a pudgy-faced guy with sandy blond hair to a dark-haired Christopher Reeves clone. He stopped wearing glasses. He didn't get contacts, he just stopped wearing glasses.

In retrospect he might've been a PED candidate, but he would've been a very early adopter. And his numbers weren't eye-popping.

Many thanks! I remember Downing's 1987 Topps card well because it was one of the last ones I needed to complete my set. Other than that, though, he was totally off my radar.

[Benihana]

So who picked Shin Soo-Choo in the poll? for 2013 CF

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Benihana

So who picked Shin Soo-Choo in the poll? for 2013 CF

A legitimate improvement like a Choo is more than welcome...but it'll cost a fortune. And unless an extension is figured out, a 1 year rental that costs us future wins with the prospect cost, is a net loss in my eyes.

Me. I just didn't think we'd be able to afford him. I underestimated the wheeling-and-dealing abilities of Mr. Jocketty. Well...IF this gets done. :O) And as for CF...I didn't care where they played him. He's capable defensively (as is Bruce). My concern was getting his bat in the lineup as it fits flawlessly.