Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

[jojo]

Originally Posted by traderumor

The last I heard, there was a lot of debate on whether the speedy Stubbs was actually statistically an above average CFer, or if he simply looked good because he had the speed.

With that being said, if he was at best average despite his speed, I would guess that Choo could at least match that, then the D is a push and the offense is obviously going to be an improvement. I think the D will be impacted much less than we think going in.

I certainly don't think we will see post injury Junioresque performance out there, and anything above that we should be able to live with.

I'm pretty comfortable with the notion that Stubbs and Choo are not defensive equals in CF.

[Tom Servo]

jaysonst Jayson Stark
I'm thinking several of them might score RT @Cincy_Flyer: @jaysonst 2012 Choo vs '12 Reds leadoff OBP extrapolates to 105 extra baserunners.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

jaysonst Jayson Stark
I'm thinking several of them might score RT @Cincy_Flyer: @jaysonst 2012 Choo vs '12 Reds leadoff OBP extrapolates to 105 extra baserunners.

Probably between 35-45 extra runs scored. That means that it's still 2 extra wins for the Reds if Stubbs to Choo is a loss in 20 runs defensively.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by jojo

I'm pretty comfortable with the notion that Stubbs and Choo are not defensive equals in CF.

Actually, memory was serving me that you were one of a few that was reminding us that Stubbs wasn't all that great a CFer according to D stats. I'm going from memory, so if I'm remembering wrong, I am getting old.

BTW, I never said they were "equals" since you like to mince words. I was making a little more of a broad analysis than that. That was pretty clear from the post, at least it should have been according to the reasonable person test.

[westofyou]

When Didi Gregorius grows up, he has a chance to become Cliff Pennington.

Jonah Keri

[klw]

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/...-reds-pitchers

Choo is a brilliant lineup fit in Cincinnati, as the Reds had by far the major leagues' worst on-base percentage from their leadoff hitters in 2012 (.254). Choo, by comparison, ranked among the majors' top 20 qualified hitters in on-base percentage in each of his three batting title-eligible campaigns (2009-10 and 2012), and his walk rate ranked among the top 25 in both 2010 and 2012. Therefore, there's an excellent chance that the Reds will have their leadoff man on base a good 75 times more than they did in 2012, and that presents a huge advantage for projected middle-of-the-order sluggers Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, who combined had 232 RBIs in 1,731 plate appearances (one per 7.46).

To say that the odds of the Reds boasting at least one 100-run scorer (Choo) and as many as two 100-RBI men (Votto and Bruce, the likely Nos. 3 and 5 hitters) are good is selling this lineup short. Surely Choo should be a .280-average, .375-OBP performer in 2013, and coupled with probable 100-run, 20-steal contributions, his value will improve. That he'll also experience a boost in home run potential in his new ballpark, which is good for left-handed power, means Choo deserves every bit of his boost in ranking, from my No. 86 overall player to 78th.

Defensively speaking, however, there are concerns for Reds pitchers following this deal. (And that's not because of anything Donald, a projected backup infielder for his new team, does to the team.) Choo as a center fielder is a puzzling experiment, as he has 10 career big league games at the position, only one in the past six seasons and only 161 total as a professional. The man he's replacing, Stubbs, had the third-best Ultimate Zone Rating (per FanGraphs) out of 20 qualified center fielders (6.8), while Choo had the worst UZR of 17 qualified right fielders (-17.0). With Ryan Ludwick in left field, Choo in center and Bruce in right, the Reds have an outstanding chance of placing all three outfield positions in the bottom five in the majors defensively in 2013 … so good luck, Reds fly-ball pitchers.

Two Reds hurlers had higher than the major league average fly-ball rate in 2012, Bronson Arroyo with 38.3 percent (27th out of 88 qualifiers) and Homer Bailey with 37.6 percent (32nd), so don't count on either having as easy a time repeating what were solid ratios in 2012. Both lose a solid $1-2 in NL-only auction drafts as a result of Stubbs' departure and Choo's arrival.

[RANDY IN INDY]

Boy, they are really selling Jay Bruce short in right. I also thought Ludwick, while not gold glove caliber, was better than average in left.

[Wonderful Monds]

Man, I cannot wait until modern defensive metrics are never spoken of again.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

Man, I cannot wait until modern defensive metrics are never spoken of again.

You mean when you die?

Because they ain't leaving in our lifetime, if anything they'll just experience a tribble like life experience

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by westofyou

You mean when you die?

Because they ain't leaving in our lifetime, if anything they'll just experience a tribble like life experience

You don't think we can do better than UZR?

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

You don't think we can do better than UZR?

Sure, I think someone will figure out something someday that trumps what's out there, I also think a lot of what's worse will also bubble up and get some play

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY

Boy, they are really selling Jay Bruce short in right. I also thought Ludwick, while not gold glove caliber, was better than average in left.

I thought Jay took a serious step back last year. He's still a good, solid right fielder, but not the top-notch defender he appeared to be previously. Maybe it was just a bad year. We'll see.

As for Ludwick, I think he's average to slightly below. The larger point about the Reds' outfield not being especially good is a solid one. I don't think it will be a disaster, but it's not going to be a strength.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by westofyou

Sure, I think someone will figure out something someday that trumps what's out there, I also think a lot of what's worse will also bubble up and get some play

I think we'll be in good shape once HitFX is around, but until then, I don't much trust what we've got at this point.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

I thought Jay took a serious step back last year. He's still a good, solid right fielder, but not the top-notch defender he appeared to be previously. Maybe it was just a bad year. We'll see.

As for Ludwick, I think he's average to slightly below. The larger point about the Reds' outfield not being especially good is a solid one. I don't think it will be a disaster, but it's not going to be a strength.

Jay had a couple glaring bad errors at a few times, especially the SF game. Aside from that, he still looked Bruce as usual to me.

Not seeing that with Ludwick. He looks average at the bare minimum out there to me.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by traderumor

Actually, memory was serving me that you were one of a few that was reminding us that Stubbs wasn't all that great a CFer according to D stats. I'm going from memory, so if I'm remembering wrong, I am getting old.

BTW, I never said they were "equals" since you like to mince words. I was making a little more of a broad analysis than that. That was pretty clear from the post, at least it should have been according to the reasonable person test.

I've argued that Stubbs is something closer to a neutral defender when he was projected to develop into a plus to elite defender in center. Choo has graded out as a slighly minus defensive corner outfielder which suggests he's be fairly bad defensive centerfielder.

You described their defensive values to be a push based upon your guess. I'm not sure how that would be interpretted to mean they'd be anything other than roughly equal by any reasonable person test.