Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by westofyou

When Didi Gregorius grows up, he has a chance to become Cliff Pennington.

Jonah Keri

Offensively, they are likely similar (though Pennington plays in a giant park). So let's just say that he does become the .700 OPS guy Pennington was before this season. Well, that makes him a slightly below average offensive shortstop. Toss in plus defense and we now have a slightly above-average overall shortstop. Sure, he won't be Tulo. Still a lot of value there.

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

You don't think we can do better than UZR?

We already are doing better. The +/- system that Dewan/BIS are doing is better. The field F/X system, while not really being shared with the public, assuming it is working like they say, it already vastly better too. In fact, it is probably the best thing you are ever going to be able to get if it works right.

Originally Posted by Brutus

Who cares who "wins" or "loses" a trade anyhow?

Did the Reds get better from this trade? Absolutely. Thus, they are winners.

Well, they are better for 2013 as long as Choo or Bruce can play center adequately and Cozart plays 150 games. If one of those two things can't happen, things are murky as if the Reds are actually better.

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

So who's our SS when Cozart's out?

For an actual amount of time? Who knows. There is literally no one in full season minor league baseball who is a true shortstop at this point and the backups on the Major League squad are, well, not true shortstops either.

Originally Posted by Benihana

Agreed. I see LaMarre as the heir to Heisey, so long as he can maintain a .700-.750 OPS in the majors as a 4th OF.

With his defense and ability on the bases, if LaMarre can OPS .700-.750 he should probably be starting in center for someone.

[dougdirt]

Fangraphs article from Mike Newman on the perceived value of shortstops

Yesterday’s three-team blockbuster which sent Shin-Soo Choo to Cincinnati included a couple of my favorite prospects from the 2012 season. Trevor Bauer ranked is the third best right-handed starting pitcher and Didi Gregorius ranked as the seventh best shortstop. On Twitter, prospect followers consider Gregorius to be a lesser player than Trevor Bauer and surmised that the DBacks traded the right-hander because he’s not as good as advertised. From four-plus years scouting prospects in person, this may not be the case considering I see more quality starting pitching prospects in one season than I ever have shortstops.

[kaldaniels]

Would you have made this trade Doug? Let's assume it was take it or leave it, with no adjustments able to be made.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Well, they are better for 2013 as long as Choo or Bruce can play center adequately and Cozart plays 150 games. If one of those two things can't happen, things are murky as if the Reds are actually better.

Doug, even if Choo is 20 runs worse than Stubbs in center (which is probably a bit of a stretch), the Reds are still two wins better with Choo than Stubbs.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Personally, I make the trade without hesitation. But...I also look to make some additional moves to bring in some minor league kids for AA or AAA that could fill a SS void. Outside of Cozart, we're very thin on SS prospects right now. Scary thin.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

Would you have made this trade Doug? Let's assume it was take it or leave it, with no adjustments able to be made.

As I have said a few times, yes, I would have. I just think it isn't a trade with a ton of risk involved.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Doug, even if Choo is 20 runs worse than Stubbs in center (which is probably a bit of a stretch), the Reds are still two wins better with Choo than Stubbs.

I could easily see Choo being 20-30 runs worse than Stubbs defensively (actual runs, not UZR runs) if he plays in CF for 150 games.

And that part of the equation is still missing the fact that the Reds have their starting shortstop returning at age 27 with a career .290 OBP and literally not another single true defensive shortstop in the organization with full season baseball experience.

The Reds are taking huge risks with this move.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

As I have said a few times, yes, I would have. I just think it isn't a trade with a ton of risk involved.

I wouldn't agree that there is a ton of risk. Risk? Sure, you always have to give up something in order to get something. But a ton? Not sure I see where that is.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I could easily see Choo being 20-30 runs worse than Stubbs defensively (actual runs, not UZR runs) if he plays in CF for 150 games.

And that part of the equation is still missing the fact that the Reds have their starting shortstop returning at age 27 with a career .290 OBP and literally not another single true defensive shortstop in the organization with full season baseball experience.

The Reds are taking huge risks with this move.

This regime has shown that they are pretty aware of defense. If Choo is that much of a fiasco in CF, do you think they'd allow him to play 150 games in CF?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

I wouldn't agree that there is a ton of risk. Risk? Sure, you always have to give up something in order to get something. But a ton? Not sure I see where that is.

You don't see a ton of risk in not having someone who likely rates out as even a slightly below-average center fielder and the only shortstop in the organization with full season experience is a 27 year old with a .290 OBP for his MLB career?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

This regime has shown that they are pretty aware of defense. If Choo is that much of a fiasco in CF, do you think they'd allow him to play 150 games in CF?

No. But then they have to go with Bruce, who probably isn't much better. They surely aren't going to start Heisey out there and bench one of Ludwick/Choo.

[Tom Servo]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Personally, I make the trade without hesitation. But...I also look to make some additional moves to bring in some minor league kids for AA or AAA that could fill a SS void. Outside of Cozart, we're very thin on SS prospects right now. Scary thin.

That's what the draft is for.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

No. But then they have to go with Bruce, who probably isn't much better. They surely aren't going to start Heisey out there and bench one of Ludwick/Choo.

324 games of LF and CF. could easily see Heisey getting a fair amt of time in CF. Especially after watching Ludwick get as much rest as he did in 2012 and looking at Choo's numbers vs LHP. Hopefully he makes strides. And if not, there is always the ability to make more moves.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

You don't see a ton of risk in not having someone who likely rates out as even a slightly below-average center fielder and the only shortstop in the organization with full season experience is a 27 year old with a .290 OBP for his MLB career?

There is time to stock some SS talent. Walt is very good at roster and organization management. He gets it.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

There is time to stock some SS talent. Walt is very good at roster and organization management. He gets it.

I am sure Walt will somehow acquire someone for AAA who can actually play shortstop. But will he be able to acquire someone who can actually play shortstop at the MLB level if Cozart continues to OBP .290?