Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

[kaldaniels]

Cozart did have a terrible OBP. But how does that relate to his WAR? Without a real dog in the fight, I could see that being an interesting discussion.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

324 games of LF and CF. could easily see Heisey getting a fair amt of time in CF. Especially after watching Ludwick get as much rest as he did in 2012 and looking at Choo's numbers vs LHP. Hopefully he makes strides. And if not, there is always the ability to make more moves.

Ludwick got some rest because the Reds didn't go into the season with him as the starter, needed to get Todd Frazier work in left as well.... this year, he is the starter. He won't rest nearly as much. The Reds brought him in to start 145 games in left field.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am sure Walt will somehow acquire someone for AAA who can actually play shortstop. But will he be able to acquire someone who can actually play shortstop at the MLB level if Cozart continues to OBP .290?

Major league SS average OBP was .309 with 40% of baseball having a sub .300 SS OBP. If he plays good D and doesn't fall off the cliff offensively Janish style, I'll live with him.

[Nathan]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am sure Walt will somehow acquire someone for AAA who can actually play shortstop. But will he be able to acquire someone who can actually play shortstop at the MLB level if Cozart continues to OBP .290?

If it was all about OBP, I might be concerned about him. That's only one part of the equation though. He also brings some pop and plus defense to the table. Surely he's a starter, damned his obp. He was miscast as a #2 hitter last year, which he won't have to do this year; he'll be batting lower in the order where he belongs.

[M2]

One other thing to take into consideration is that the Reds led all of MLB last season in the difference between their RC per game (above average at 4.6) and their actual runs per game (below average at 4.13). While there's some randomness built into that, a decent chunk of that inefficiency falls on the void in the leadoff spot. The Reds' lineup didn't work, at least not like it should have. Choo's addition might go a long way toward rectifying that. The potential gain in efficiency would actually be larger than Choo's boost in the RC department. An extra 100 runs from the cumulative effect wouldn't be all that surprising.

[dougdirt]

I can't believe the amount of people who don't find concern in a 27 year old with a career .290 OBP being a starter. Yes, he has things he brings to the table that are certainly good.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by M2

One other thing to take into consideration is that the Reds led all of MLB last season in the difference between their RC per game (above average at 4.6) and their actual runs per game (below average at 4.13). While there's some randomness built into that, a decent chunk of that inefficiency falls on the void in the leadoff spot. The Reds' lineup didn't work, at least not like it should have. Choo's addition might go a long way toward rectifying that. The potential gain in efficiency would actually be larger than Choo's boost in the RC department. An extra 100 runs from the cumulative effect wouldn't be all that surprising.

I could counter with that Choo or Bruce in center is going to cost our starters pitches and innings (and runs),meaning they throw fewer, leaving more for the bullpen and thus making them less valuable and then adding in a few extra guys who aren't nearly as good to fill in needed innings for those guys.

It kind of goes both ways. Choo is an upgrade to the team, no doubt. I just don't know how much and I don't think something like WAR is really going to tell us because so many other things are being effected by the move that won't show up in an individual players WAR.

[edabbs44]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I can't believe the amount of people who don't find concern in a 27 year old with a career .290 OBP being a starter. Yes, he has things he brings to the table that are certainly good.

In a vacuum maybe. But I think you need to look at the whole picture. If that is the biggest issue with the team, then I'm game.

[traderumor]

Originally Posted by jojo

I've argued that Stubbs is something closer to a neutral defender when he was projected to develop into a plus to elite defender in center. Choo has graded out as a slighly minus defensive corner outfielder which suggests he's be fairly bad defensive centerfielder.

You described their defensive values to be a push based upon your guess. I'm not sure how that would be interpretted to mean they'd be anything other than roughly equal by any reasonable person test.

Yea, see, now it seems you are just being argumentative, since now you are shifting to "roughly equal," whereas your earlier condescending remark used equal. Exhausting.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I could easily see Choo being 20-30 runs worse than Stubbs defensively (actual runs, not UZR runs) if he plays in CF for 150 games.

And that part of the equation is still missing the fact that the Reds have their starting shortstop returning at age 27 with a career .290 OBP and literally not another single true defensive shortstop in the organization with full season baseball experience.

The Reds are taking huge risks with this move.

That same 27-y.o. shortstop put up nearly 3 WAR last year as a 26-year old. Seems you are purposely ignoring the bigger picture.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

In a vacuum maybe. But I think you need to look at the whole picture. If that is the biggest issue with the team, then I'm game.

I agree that it is the biggest issue with the team as far as starting players go and major pitching parts. Still, it could develop into a very big issue and there, at least as things stand no, literally no other option behind him. When your worst player literally has no back up in the minors for years to come, it shouldn't just be acceptable because the rest of your team is good.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

That's what the draft is for.

That's not going to address the hole between Cozart and the lowest levels on the farm. Anybody we draft will most likely start in A ball or below. We need legitimate shortstops for the Reds, AAA and AA at least IMO.

Doug's right. If Cozart got injured in spring training for example....what then?

I'm not saying I don't do the trade. I love the trade. I do it 100 times out of 100. But let's not pretend there's not significant risk here for the short-term. I just think the potential gain outweighs the risk.

[Tom Servo]

Originally Posted by edabbs44

In a vacuum maybe. But I think you need to look at the whole picture. If that is the biggest issue with the team, then I'm game.

[Tom Servo]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

That's not going to address the hole between Cozart and the lowest levels on the farm. Anybody we draft will most likely start in A ball or below. We need legitimate shortstops for the Reds, AAA and AA at least IMO.

Doug's right. If Cozart got injured in spring training for example....what then?

I'm not saying I don't do the trade. I love the trade. I do it 100 times out of 100. But let's not pretend there's not significant risk here for the short-term. I just think the potential gain outweighs the risk.

Honestly, I'm not all that terribly concerned with who is playing SS for the Louisville Bats or Pensacola Blue Wahoos, be it a no-stick guy in our system or minor league filler. You are right, the Reds should have a contingency plan for SS should something happen to Cozart. But as far as the rest of the organization goes, you just have to draft and develop more stars. You're not going to have a top-notch prospect at every position in your minor league system.

[Brutus]

For the record:

Cozart AAA 2011

.310/.357/.467/.825

Gregorius AAA 2012

.243/.288/.427/.715

The argument last night against trading Gregorius was that despite his weak bat, his glove made him valuable. Well, Cozart put up nearly 3 WAR last year in his first full season in the big leagues. It seems either this is an inconsistent argument or perhaps Cozart deserves a second season before hanging him in effigy for his ".290 OBP"