Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

[Gallen5862]

What are the chances that the Reds could sign Stephen Drew? He did not get the offers he was expecting. Would he take a one year deal with an option? Would he be a upgrade?

[Plus Plus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Yes and yes. Let's work under these presumptions that I have about Gregorius. He can hit you 10-15 home runs in a season (not today, but maybe in a year and moving forward). He will walk 6-7% of the time. He will strike out 15% of the time. He will hit you 25 doubles and 5 triples.

Math suggests then that he would hit roughly this:

PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	HBP	SH	SF	AVG	OBP	SLG	BABIP
600	546	150	25	5	13	39	90	5	5	5	.275	.326	.410	.306

In the above scenario I gave him a 6.5% walk rate and a 15% strikeout rate. That is the kind of guy I see him as at the plate. Not today. But in the near future. At the MLB level.

I disagree with your projections. Gregorius has 20 career minor league home runs in 1,909 career minor league plate appearances. In 561 PAs in 2012, he had 7. This doesn't sound like a guy who projects for 13 home runs in any season in MLB, especially in NL-west ballparks.

I think your overall projections are a direct translation of his 2012 year, and are coupled with optimistic aging curves for him while your projections for Cozart ignore the fact that he had 30 more home runs, 43 more doubles, .010 more OBP despite .001 lower BA, and only 257 more PAs.

I understand that Didi is significantly younger than Cozart, but if one is to project the age 27-29 years as the peak years for a career, and also give Cozart a little bit of wiggle room because of the fact that he went to college and didn't join the Reds' farm system until he was 21 (while Didi was 18 when he was signed), then I feel that hammering on the point of Cozart being the biggest lineup problem for the Reds will be similar to someone watching the Victoria's Secret fashion show and constantly pointing out the "least attractive" girl in the runway show.

It's much ado about nothing. Maybe Cozart ends up being "only" league average for six years of team control. But if the team's biggest flaw is a league average SS, then I will be one happy Reds fan.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am sure Walt will somehow acquire someone for AAA who can actually play shortstop. But will he be able to acquire someone who can actually play shortstop at the MLB level if Cozart continues to OBP .290?

As long as he plays defense as well as he did last year, I'm not worried about Cozart's OBP. We can carry one low OBP guy, especially at a pre-arb salary.
Cozart is going to bat 7 or 8th.. it's not a problem.

I think Cozart is going to outhit Didi next year, so it makes sense to keep Cozart.

In a way, this is similiar to the 1999 preseason. Reds dealt Konerko and kept Casey.. Casey was producing better "now" and that's what a contending team needs. Sometimes that means dealing the prospect with the higher ceiling, because you need production now, not later.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Plus Plus

I disagree with your projections. Gregorius has 20 career minor league home runs in 1,909 career minor league plate appearances. In 561 PAs in 2012, he had 7. This doesn't sound like a guy who projects for 13 home runs in any season in MLB, especially in NL-west ballparks.

He has also been young for every level he is at and often hasn't even tried to hit for power. He went to AAA this season and made an attempt to hit for power. Wound up with 6 home runs in 200 at bats. When he wants to use a power swing, the swing, strength and bat speed are there. He simply doesn't go to it often at this point in his career. As he matures his approach and game, he will go to it more often. Plenty of scouts I have talked to have Gregorius in the 10-15 HR area. I really don't care what his power numbers in the minor leagues from age 18-22 say. I have watched him swing the bat in a way that will produce power in the future, at least a moderate amount. I doubt he ever cracks 20 home runs, but he isn't Juan Pierre or Willy Taveras with the power either.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by REDREAD

As long as he plays defense as well as he did last year, I'm not worried about Cozart's OBP. We can carry one low OBP guy, especially at a pre-arb salary.
Cozart is going to bat 7 or 8th.. it's not a problem.

I think Cozart is going to outhit Didi next year, so it makes sense to keep Cozart.

In a way, this is similiar to the 1999 preseason. Reds dealt Konerko and kept Casey.. Casey was producing better "now" and that's what a contending team needs. Sometimes that means dealing the prospect with the higher ceiling, because you need production now, not later.

I think Cozart probably could outhit Didi for 2013. We may even get a chance to see. I don't even mind that we traded Didi and kept Cozart. I would rather have it the other way around, but it isn't a big deal for me either way. The fact that we are laying out entire bet on either one of them is the issue for me. Well that and that we don't have a guy who I think projects to even be a below-average center fielder on our team that the Reds will actually play there (re: Chris Heisey isn't going to be the every day starting center fielder this year unless one of the corner guys gets hurt and Bruce/Choo slides over).

It isn't that we traded X player and kept Y player. It is that we have a whole lot of our eggs at shortstop with no other option in the organization for years to come and that our center field options, defensively, suck. The trade is a net plus (in almost all scenarios) for 2013. But I see a lot of risk with it for the organization.

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_

Doug's right. If Cozart got injured in spring training for example....what then?
.

I can see that point.. but we can say that about just about anyone.
If any starter gets hurt, there's a pretty big dropoff. Sure, Heisey is a better fill in than Donald, but it's still a big dropoff.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

No one said the Reds didn't win it. No one.

A lot of things in Gregorius minor league career suggests he will be an average Major Leaguer.

Jay Bruce is younger than Zack Cozart by a year and a half. His talent is on an entirely different playing field, particularly at the plate. There is a lot more room for growth with a guy like Bruce than there is a guy like Cozart. Scouts have wondered aloud since day one whether he would ever be more than a .240 hitter in the Majors.

I guess you can say Cozart had a good rookie season if you want. But most rookies aren't nearly as old as Cozart is, so that doesn't really tell us much.

I disagree about the age thing. Seems like more and more rookies are starting out in the 25-27 age range. Only the superstars are starting out at 21 -22. College is also becoming more of a factor.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

I disagree about the age thing. Seems like more and more rookies are starting out in the 25-27 age range. Only the superstars are starting out at 21 -22. College is also becoming more of a factor.

No, it just seems like more Reds rookies are starting out at that age because the Reds have had an influx of them lately. Most rookies, at least ones that turn into starters, are beginning at 22-24. Stars generally start before then. College has always been a factor. Or well, at least for the last 50 years.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

No, it just seems like more Reds rookies are starting out at that age because the Reds have had an influx of them lately. Most rookies, at least ones that turn into starters, are beginning at 22-24. Stars generally start before then. College has always been a factor. Or well, at least for the last 50 years.

......and that would be your opinion.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

......and that would be your opinion.

Well sure, I guess it is my opinion that you would think that for a specific reason. But I don't think we are at some point in baseball history where a rash of rookies are becoming rookies at ages 25-27 and sticking around more than ever.

[WVPacman]

Did I hear right yesterday that he will be a FA after this year.Do you expect the reds to try to get him extended or let him walk.Leting him walk will be dumb on the reds part after having to trade away the kid that plays SS.Scott boris is his agent so we might be in trouble if they want to resign him.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by WVPacman

Did I hear right yesterday that he will be a FA after this year.Do you expect the reds to try to get him extended or let him walk.Leting him walk will be dumb on the reds part after having to trade away the kid that plays SS.Scott boris is his agent so we might be in trouble if they want to resign him.

cough(comppick)cough

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by WVPacman

Did I hear right yesterday that he will be a FA after this year.Do you expect the reds to try to get him extended or let him walk.Leting him walk will be dumb on the reds part after having to trade away the kid that plays SS.Scott boris is his agent so we might be in trouble if they want to resign him.

Jocketty was on 1530 this afternoon and said that they are going to let 2013 play out and see how it goes before trying to see if he would sign. And that they would be willing to go with Billy Hamilton in 2014. Basically, it sounded like the only way they would try to extend Choo was if Billy fell flat on his face and then some during 2013 in AAA.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY

Boy, they are really selling Jay Bruce short in right. I also thought Ludwick, while not gold glove caliber, was better than average in left.

I agree. Although Ludwick may have looked better in comparison to our previous LFers.

I don't think Choo's going to disappoint in CF. The guy has played OF, he knows how to catch a ball. If he starts dropping easy fly balls out there, there's a problem. He's not going to get to a lot of balls Stubbs did but not many players could.

[WVPacman]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Jocketty was on 1530 this afternoon and said that they are going to let 2013 play out and see how it goes before trying to see if he would sign. And that they would be willing to go with Billy Hamilton in 2014. Basically, it sounded like the only way they would try to extend Choo was if Billy fell flat on his face and then some during 2013 in AAA.

If hamilton is ready to play by next year then I say that would be the smartest thing to do.