Bruce or Choo in CF?

[RANDY IN INDY]

The pitchers are going to miss Drew Stubbs defense in CF.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by SunDeck

Unless Choo can stand on the warning track in right field and throw a one hop seed to third base, I say leave Bruce where he is.

That's the thing. He can. Someone earlier posted that they're both virtually the same defensively. I agree with that.

[vaticanplum]

I've always been higher on Bruce in CF than most. Just love his arm, i guess.

So I'll go with Bruce, but I also think that if this is the case, they need to *start* spring training with the mindset that he is going to be there or there's going to be a 100% pure tryout (rather than Choo being the default with Bruce only stepping in if he fails). He's going to need that time to readjust in that mindset.

Additionally, while I know the stats, I haven't seen enough of Choo in the outfield to have a strong opinion about it.

[Caveat Emperor]

When in doubt, go with the younger guy -- Bruce.

[SunDeck]

Choo's arm is not an upgrade to Bruce's. I like the best arm in RF to protect 3rd and a good Right Fielder makes a Center Fielder better.

Bruce looks like he would be better in CF than Choo, but is it worth it? From a pitching perspective, I don't think either of them will replace the confidence they had in Stubbs, but Bruce would probably be better from that perspective. However, it is a pretty small center field and I wonder how much of a difference that will make? For that reason, I think I'd like to see Choo there at least until he proves he can't do it.

[RedEye]

Originally Posted by SunDeck

However, it is a pretty small center field and I wonder how much of a difference that will make? For that reason, I think I'd like to see Choo there at least until he proves he can't do it.

They do play 81 games in other stadiums though...

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Both Bruce and Choo are better from an arm perspective than a range one. But for Choo, the range is actually a problem and likely something that would be exacerbated in CF.

Range was a problem for Choo last year, but prior to that it was never an issue. Before last season, he and Bruce were almost twins defensively. I guess you could say that 2012 portends a serious downgrade for Choo defensively, but to me it looks like an outlier. I'm willing to bet on a return to his career norms rather than 2012 being the new norm. Apparently, so is Walt.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by SunDeck

Choo's arm is not an upgrade to Bruce's. I like the best arm in RF to protect 3rd and a good Right Fielder makes a Center Fielder better.

I think Choo might have the better arm. He has more OF assists and double plays than Bruce despite having slightly fewer chances. Honestly though, I don't think it matters. They are both elite throwers from RF. Regardless of where they play, teams will be reluctant to go for the extra base against either of them.

On an unrelated note, what the heck happened with Ludwick last year? In researching the fielding stats for Choo/Bruce, I noticed that Ludwick didn't tally a single assist last year. That's from a guy who posted 35 assists in four years prior to his arrival in Cincinnati.

[11larkin11]

From the eye test, I think Choo's arm may be a bit better than Bruce's. There was an article last year that said some AL Scouts thought it was better than Ichiro's, even when Ichiro first came up.

[SunDeck]

I'm just looking at the chart posted in this thread, from which it looks like Choo's arm is not as good as Bruce's. I've not seen the kid play but a few times, but I know what I see from Bruce which is definitely elite.

[SunDeck]

Originally Posted by RedEye

They do play 81 games in other stadiums though...

And some are small like GABP.

[CySeymour]

Originally Posted by SunDeck

I'm just looking at the chart posted in this thread, from which it looks like Choo's arm is not as good as Bruce's. I've not seen the kid play but a few times, but I know what I see from Bruce which is definitely elite.

The defensive metrics from each of the past two seasons indicate Bruce is declining defensively.

[Scrap Irony]

It won't matter much who's out there, IMO.

It is, at this point, what it's going to be. They'll likely have a poor CF defensively who will make up for that with offensive numbers. No matter who's out there, the difference between that person and the Drew Stubbs we saw in 2012 looks to be a pretty massive improvement. Neither Choo nor Bruce are going to be more than 20 runs below replacement (as it's almost impossible to be that bad with decent defenders to both sides of you-- which either CF would have-- and the few outs hit to you per game). Add on three pitchers who profile as ground ball guys (Cueto as an extreme example of that) on the starting staff, and you have to figure that it doesn't mean all that much in the overall scheme of things one way or another.

Tilting at windmills, and all that.

[Tom Servo]

Posted this in the signing thread, but if you are looking for some defensive highlights by Choo, here you go

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gq6ZcTyW4s

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

It won't matter much who's out there, IMO.

It is, at this point, what it's going to be. They'll likely have a poor CF defensively who will make up for that with offensive numbers. No matter who's out there, the difference between that person and the Drew Stubbs we saw in 2012 looks to be a pretty massive improvement. Neither Choo nor Bruce are going to be more than 20 runs below replacement (as it's almost impossible to be that bad with decent defenders to both sides of you-- which either CF would have-- and the few outs hit to you per game). Add on three pitchers who profile as ground ball guys (Cueto as an extreme example of that) on the starting staff, and you have to figure that it doesn't mean all that much in the overall scheme of things one way or another.

Tilting at windmills, and all that.

Not a single Reds starter induced 50% groundballs last season. Cueto and Leake were both at 48.9%. While that leans them more toward groundball than flyball, it isn't exactly making them groundball pitchers either. 142 pitchers threw 100+ innings last year. Cueto and Leake ranked 40th in GB rate among them. Better than average, but they are still allowing the ball in the air more than it is going to the ground.