Reds acquire Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald for Drew Stubbs and Didi Gregorious

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by traderumor

Begging the question on several fronts.

Was 2012 his norm? Was it in line with his major league/minor league projections? How much of 2012 numbers are attributed to randomness and could fluctuate positively without any additional "improvement"?

Who says a player regresses defensively post 25? While I can see the physical peak aspect, that doesn't mean a late 20s to early 30s player doesn't keep his defensive play in tact, or even improve, by knowing the game better, i.e. positioning, anticipation. It is counter intuitive to say a guy has done as well as he is going to do defensively by the time he is 25.

I think 2012 was about his norm. Scouts have long questioned whether he was anything more than a .240 hitter at the MLB level. He has, outside of one season, always been an aggressive swinger/low walk type of guy.

As for the peak defensive thing, it was from a subscriber article on Bill James online, but was referenced by Rob Neyer here.

One of the first things that is becoming apparent from better defensive measurements is that defensive value peaks earlier and fades MUCH younger than offensive value. Players often reach their defensive peak at ages 22-25, and many players are fading defensively by the age of 28, long before 30.

[pahster]

Originally Posted by marcshoe

Very limited knowledge on my part, but does a bell curve work when you're talking about progression? I've tended to see it used to explain distribution among a common demographic, thus accounting for deviation. I may be being a little too literal, though, I get what you mean.

The bell curve is shorthand for a standard Normal distribution. It doesn't have anything to do with a linear (or otherwise) progression through time.

[marcshoe]

Originally Posted by pahster

The bell curve is shorthand for a standard Normal distribution. It doesn't have anything to do with a linear (or otherwise) progression through time.

That's what I was thinking. I thought this was important because the bell curve explains deviation from the mean and wouldn't really translate to charting progression. But like I said, I was likely being more literal with the phrase than Doug intended.

[MikeThierry]

I think this is officially the longest thread in Red Zone history

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

I think this is officially the longest thread in Red Zone history

Nah. We have had ones started over with Part 2 because the originals got up to 1000 posts.

[Caveman Techie]

Dougdirt, I understand where you are coming from, but this trade was for now, not two or three years from now. So as you have said you think we gave up the wrong shortstop, but then you admit that Didi would likely be outperformed by Cozart in 2013.

So with the thought process being that this trade is for 2013 only and hopefully getting a WS title this year, don't you think the Reds traded the right guy then?

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Caveman Techie

Dougdirt, I understand where you are coming from, but this trade was for now, not two or three years from now. So as you have said you think we gave up the wrong shortstop, but then you admit that Didi would likely be outperformed by Cozart in 2013.

So with the thought process being that this trade is for 2013 only and hopefully getting a WS title this year, don't you think the Reds traded the right guy then?

Not really. The difference between Didi and Cozart for 2013 is small. Maybe a win, which on this team, isn't going to make a difference. And by the time the playoffs roll around, I think they will be on par.

Again, this isn't to say I don't like the trade or wouldn't have made it. Just that I believe there is more risk involved with the trade than a lot of people seem to believe there is, even for 2013.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I think the Reds would have made that trade if it was available.

But Upton is signed through 2015 and thus is far more valuable in a trade than Choo. Choo, of course, is a one-year rental.

I think the DiamondBacks would have wanted considerably more for Upton and Bauer. Probably Bailey, Gregorius, Corcino, maybe more.

I don't know if they would've made that trade or not. Walt seemed pretty pleased that he didn't have to give up any of the pitching depth to get Choo. Dealing away 2 of them for Upton/Bauer is still shortening our pitching depth. Had we not signed Ludwick I think the odds would've been better, but adding Ludwick AND Upton puts a two year hold on Hamilton...another thing I don't think Walt wants to do. I just don't know.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

I think this is officially the longest thread in Red Zone history

LOL. We've had freaking GAME THREADS go this long. :O)

[REDREAD]

Originally Posted by M2

One thing to consider with Reds OFs and defensive stats is if you put capable fielders in multiple positions, they're likely robbing outs from each other given the relatively narrow power alleys at the GAB.

When you look at the 2012 Reds' defense as whole, it grades out as pretty darn good (4th in the NL in DER, TZ and DRS ranked the Reds defense 2nd overall in the league). Only 4.9% of their opponents PAs resulted in doubles or triples, which is better than average. The opposing BA of .247 was 4th in the NL. Clearly plays were being made at the macro level.

My guess is if Bruce plays next to a lesser flychaser, he'll get more of those either/or balls at the GAB, making his personal stats shinier while not particularly affecting the team's overall defensive profile.

Excellent point for sure.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Not really. The difference between Didi and Cozart for 2013 is small. Maybe a win, which on this team, isn't going to make a difference. And by the time the playoffs roll around, I think they will be on par.

Again, this isn't to say I don't like the trade or wouldn't have made it. Just that I believe there is more risk involved with the trade than a lot of people seem to believe there is, even for 2013.

Doug and I are on the same page for the most part. He's higher on Didi than I am for sure, but he's spot on when he says people are overlooking the amount of risk here. A team that's won on pitching and defense just lessened a cornerstone on defense considerably in center and took the knees out of the clubs' depth at yet another defense cornerstone, shortstop. I don't think ANYBODY is against this deal...it's just not a slam dunk like some portray it.

Personally I didn't think it would've mattered very much as to which shortstop we dealt, just the fact that we traded either of them hurts. I was quite concerned as soon as Jocketty announced that they were open to dealing one of the shortstops at all.

As for Jason Donald, I've seen him play some but not a bunch. When I've seen him he's been Keppinger-esque defensively at short but looked much better at 2nd. Does anybody have any kind of glowing praises about his defense? Because he strikes me as strictly a back-up infielder and not to be used for long stretches. Same goes for Hannahan except he looks fantastic at third...but pedestrian at short. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[vaticanplum]

Originally Posted by M2

One thing to consider with Reds OFs and defensive stats is if you put capable fielders in multiple positions, they're likely robbing outs from each other given the relatively narrow power alleys at the GAB.

When you look at the 2012 Reds' defense as whole, it grades out as pretty darn good (4th in the NL in DER, TZ and DRS ranked the Reds defense 2nd overall in the league). Only 4.9% of their opponents PAs resulted in doubles or triples, which is better than average. The opposing BA of .247 was 4th in the NL. Clearly plays were being made at the macro level.

My guess is if Bruce plays next to a lesser flychaser, he'll get more of those either/or balls at the GAB, making his personal stats shinier while not particularly affecting the team's overall defensive profile.

GABP intel is one of my favorite things about following this team. It's like watching Stat Sleuths (which is the MLB Network's next hit, or should be).

[M2]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

I think this is officially the longest thread in Red Zone history

It's about 59,000 posts short - http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26042

Krono alone had more posts in that thread than there are in this thread.

[marcshoe]

Maybe the longest thread title.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by M2

It's about 59,000 posts short - http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26042

Krono alone had more posts in that thread than there are in this thread.

Most epic thread ever. That is hilarious stuff.