Buster Olney's comments on 1530 ESPN

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Sea Ray

How 'bout experience? Who has more experience at 2B? That's gotta be worth something

Phillips has more experience, but for just about every shortstop ever, the move to second base was one without issue. At both spots you range to the left and to the right. The throw is shorter.

[RANDY IN INDY]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Phillips has more experience, but for just about every shortstop ever, the move to second base was one without issue. At both spots you range to the left and to the right. The throw is shorter.

He'd have to show it on the field on a consistent basis for me to make such an extraordinary statement. Tools and potential is one thing. Consistently performing on the field when it counts is a totally different equation. I've seen plenty of "five o'clock" performers over the years.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by RANDY IN INDY

He'd have to show it on the field on a consistent basis for me to make such an extraordinary statement. Tools and potential is one thing. Consistently performing on the field when it counts is a totally different equation. I've seen plenty of "five o'clock" performers over the years.

.965 fielding percentage on minor league fields with minor league first basemen this past season. At shortstop. That isn't a five o'clock performer.

[RANDY IN INDY]

And Brandon Phillips consistently does it at the major league level. Gregorius needs to prove it for a while.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

.965 fielding percentage on minor league fields with minor league first basemen this past season. At shortstop. That isn't a five o'clock performer.

Paul Janish had a lifetime minor league fielding percentage of .971.

Zack Cozart's fielding percentage (minor league only) is .970.

IMO, you're overestimating both the impact of Gregorius' defense and his ability. Is he above average? Okay, sure. Is he a game-changer? I don't know anyone-- aside from you, doug (and, of course, the DBack GM)-- who says so.

Most experts and scouts see his likely major league spot as a poor starter or a decent backup middle infielder. Considering the current Red SS graded out as above average overall his rookie season, I just don't get the hand-wringing over losing the guy.

Is he a good prospect? Okay, sure. Maybe. He has a couple good things going for him-- youth and defense.

But he has some massive holes as well. More holes than Cozart, IMO, who only struggles with obp.

[Vottomatic]

All I want to know is......is Gregorius a future Cy Young winner?

Laugh. It's a joke.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

IMO, you're overestimating both the impact of Gregorius' defense and his ability. Is he above average? Okay, sure. Is he a game-changer? I don't know anyone-- aside from you, doug (and, of course, the DBack GM)-- who says so.

He is a plus defender. I don't recall a scouting report saying otherwise. If you have seen them, please share.

Most experts and scouts see his likely major league spot as a poor starter or a decent backup middle infielder. Considering the current Red SS graded out as above average overall his rookie season, I just don't get the hand-wringing over losing the guy.

Plenty of guys, since this trade, have said his upside is a "second division starter". Well, that means somewhere in the 7-12 range of all Major League shortstops. I don't have some grand illusions of Gregorius becoming some superstar. I just believe he can be a .700-.740 OPS hitter with gold-glove caliber defense. In todays game, that is really, really valuable. One of my favorite things to talk to scouts about is their terminology. Often times it isn't based in reality. It is based upon what teams want, not what is actually available. They will tell you that so and so is a #2 or #3 pitcher. But by their definitions, that means that only about 15 teams even have the capability of having a #1, #2 and #3 starter (Re: there are maybe a total of 45 guys in all of baseball who are a #1, #2 and #3 combined), where every other pitcher in baseball has #4 and #5s or worse filling out their rotation. It may be what they believe a pitcher should profile as, but it doesn't jive with the reality that is the current talent distribution. It hasn't for a long time. It is like scouting terms have remained the same for player talent as they used to be when there were 16 teams in the entire league.

At the end of the day, it isn't handwringing over losing this guy. Just like it wouldn't have been if they had traded Cozart instead. It is that there is literally no one within 4 years behind whoever they kept who can even play a defensive first shortstop. Jason Donald, Emmanual Burris.... those guys aren't shortstops anymore than Chris Valaika was a shortstop.

Is he a good prospect? Okay, sure. Maybe.

Well, he is good enough that Baseball America was going to rank him higher than both Nick Travieso and Jesse Winker. While I don't entirely agree with that assessment, JJ Cooper didn't come up with that idea out of thin air. Those two guys are first rounders from last year and Jesse Winker went to the Pioneer League and absolutely raked. Apparently plenty enough people convinced Cooper and Baseball America that Gregorius has more value than that.

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

All I want to know is......is Gregorius a future Cy Young winner?

Laugh. It's a joke.

No. He is future Derek Jeter.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

No. He is future Derek Jeter.

That is pretty much unpossible. Jeter never was any good at playing shortstop.

[Scrap Irony]

Second division starter means the second half of the league-- 16-30. From Wiki:

First division is a term that has had various meanings, at various times, in the sport of baseball, but originally referred to the rankings within a league. Teams which ranked in the top 50% of a league were said to have finished in the "first division", while the rest were said to be in the "second division".

In other words, many think he's a below average starter-- at his ceiling.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Second division starter means the second half of the league-- 16-30. From Wiki:



In other words, many think he's a below average starter-- at his ceiling.

I am not going to argue with you (or wikipedia) about this. Scout talk generally isn't based in the reality of talent distribution.

I don't know how many scouts you have talked to, but I doubt it is anywhere near "most". Some out there do think he is a future utility player. Some also think he is the guy I suggest he could become. Just like some used to say Johnny Cueto was a reliever, while others said he was a #2 starter. There is an incredible amount of variance on just about every prospect. I feel just fine thinking that Gregorius has the potential to be a .740 OPS bat in the Majors. You (and others) can disagree with that. I am done talking about it.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I am not going to argue with you (or wikipedia) about this. Scout talk generally isn't based in the reality of talent distribution.

Wow.

This now reminds me a bit of the Billy Hamilton isn't really an athlete thread.

Sigh.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Wow.

This now reminds me a bit of the Billy Hamilton isn't really an athlete thread.

Sigh.

Which you still don't seem to grasp. I never said he wasn't an athlete. in fact, on multiple occasions I have said he is the best athlete we have in the Reds system. What I said, is that he isn't what I would consider a "super athlete" because he lacks any kind of physical strength. Josh Hamilton. Mike Trout. Ken Griffey Jr. Guys like that are super athletes to me. Guys who can hit the ball a mile. Run past you. Run over you. Throw it by you. Those guys are super athletes. Billy Hamilton isn't in that group. Billy Hamilton is a fine athlete. He just isn't in that class.

[camisadelgolf]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semantics