College Football Realignment

[dabvu2498]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

The best of the rest isn't demonstrably better than the MAC -- especially if UC goes to the MAC w/ UConn & USF in tow.

Using the logic of geography, USF should join the Sun Belt or C-USA. They're better leagues than the MAC anyway.

[wolfboy]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

This new "best of the rest" conference will offer nothing by way of strength of schedule and will also generate next to no revenue for football.

Six to one, half a dozen to the other. You could put UConn and UC in the MAC and it would be a better conference than the "best of the rest" without those two.

No matter what UC does, it's not going to make TV money for football. It's a no win situation, so may as well avoid some complex solution.

It will generate significantly more revenue than the MAC. If I have a chance tomorrow, I'll link articles saying as much.

[wolfboy]

Originally Posted by jojo

In my experience, devout football fans gravitate to the best games. A fan will watch his team no matter what but the rest of the saturday he basically acts like a fun gun for hire.

The hypothetical conference above would consistently fail to offer and meat for the fan searching for his next game. Literally ESPN 12 might carry some of the conferences games but then again the Appalachian State game might preempt it...

In my experience, devout fans want to know how conference mates are playing. As to the ESPN 12 comment, not really sure what that adds to the conversation.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by wolfboy

In my experience, devout fans want to know how conference mates are playing. As to the ESPN 12 comment, not really sure what that adds to the conversation.

It makes a specific point that is very relevant. Devout fans can check the internet to see how conference mates fared. They can spend their attention watching actual compelling football. And make no mistake, given the hypothetical conference outlined, there is not enough devout fandom to get many games on tv.

[nmculbreth]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

This new "best of the rest" conference will offer nothing by way of strength of schedule and will also generate next to no revenue for football.

Six to one, half a dozen to the other. You could put UConn and UC in the MAC and it would be a better conference than the "best of the rest" without those two.

No matter what UC does, it's not going to make TV money for football. It's a no win situation, so may as well avoid some complex solution.

I respectfully disagree.

I think the inclusion of schools like Boise State and BYU makes the best of the rest conference demonstrably better than what the MAC offers and most of the programs being mentioned offer far more growth potential than any team currently residing in the MAC. If nothing else consider the disparity in marketplaces; on one side you've got Tampa, Orlando, Philadelphia and San Diego and on the other you've got rust belt cities like Toledo, Akron and Buffalo. Not to mention the fact that the quality of basketball with UConn, UC, BYU, UNLV, SDSU, New Mexico and Temple would be roughly 1000x better than what you'd find in the MAC, or frankly what the Catholic league will probably be able to offer.

Ultimately I think UC will end up in a better situation before the Big East disintegration comes to pass but they've also got to prepare for the worst and IMHO the proposed best of the rest is less awful than the MAC.

[Assembly Hall]

Originally Posted by nmculbreth

Ultimately I think UC will end up in a better situation before the Big East disintegration comes to pass but they've also got to prepare for the worst and IMHO the proposed best of the rest is less awful than the MAC.

I agree with that comment.

The next dominoes that fall will come from the ACC. It will be interesting to see how it all works out for UC.

[Chip R]

I saw this on another message board and they were from Saturday morning and nothing's happened yet so take it with a grain of salt.

The following tweets are from Dave Reynolds, Bradley MBB beat writer. Take out of them what you will as he is the only source I've found on this and I'm personally wary until someone else provides true confirmation, especially from any of the schools involved. If true, this could be some serious breaking news...

10:43am - I'm hearing that announcements on Creighton and Evansville leaving Valley are coming today.

10:44am - Creighton going to the Catholic conference, Evansville to the Horizon.

10:44am - Valpo, UW-Milwaukee, Loyola, UIC, Oral Roberts among candidates to replace them in the MVC.

[wolfboy]

I think the following link addresses the points raised by both CE and jojo:

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2012...e-this-season/

As to jojo's point, clearly the teams in this new conference won't get as many appearances as other conferences; however, they will still get more television exposure than the everyone outside of the big 5.

I think the link also supports two points I've made: (i) that people do in fact watch these teams; and, (ii) that the big 5 conferences have games that few people watch. Cincinnati and Boise, the two flagship programs for this new conference had respectable ratings for their televised games, ranging from 1.0 to 2.7. Granted, this is nowhere near the premier match ups from the power 5 conferences, but no one is claiming that this new conference stacks up with those guys. If you add in BYU, that's another team that can bring a respectable rating. Outside of the Pitt game, even USF did pretty well in its televised games.

Are these ratings on par with premier SEC matchups? Heck no. At the same time, they're hardly "ESPN 12" material. I know you don't care for these teams jojo, but I think these ratings show that at least some people do. There is some value in a media deal for this conference, especially since NBC is desperate for inventory and it's the only conference on the market right now. Will it approach anything remotely close to what even the ACC gets? No way. Then again, as the sixth best conference in college football, it will get the sixth best contract.

As to CE's point about the MAC, I think these ratings show just how terrible a move that would be for UC. The MAC championship game, which sent NIU to a BCS bowl, only garnered a .9 rating. No one cares about MAC football at all, and UC would destroy its football program if it joined up with the MAC. Even with the Cinderella story of NIU this year, no one really watched.

I think the best move for UC right now, if they can negotiate it, is to go all sports with the new C7 league, and go football only with the teams mentioned in the DeCourcy article. The C7 bball contract should be fairly lucrative, and they can add icing to the cake with the new football conference. In the mean time, keep winning, upgrade facilities, and see where you land when realignment crops up again.

[Caveat Emperor]

The total value for a "New" BE media package (including Boise, prior to the defection of LOU and the catholic split) was $40-$60m per year. Assuming those losses push the deal to the low end ($40m), that works out to $2.8-$3.3M per school in a 12 or 14 team league. Again, it's better than any other deal out there, but not demonstrably better than what UC, UCONN and USF could do if they just added themselves, as a bloc, to some other conference. Every solution is bad, the question UC needs to ask is whether they want to make no money flying cross country or no money travelling locally.

Also there's this -- everyone knows UC is looking to bolt at first chance. There's a chance no conference will have them (especially a conference looking to lure BYU) if UC isn't willing to sign a Grant of Rights. That would be suicide for UC athletics.

ETA: The scenario you're advocating also assumes the catholic league would have UC. That's not a guarantee, especially if they're trying to lure Xavier.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor

ETA: The scenario you're advocating also assumes the catholic league would have UC. That's not a guarantee, especially if they're trying to lure Xavier.

It'll be tough to lure any A-10 teams away from there since they just signed a deal with 3 networks for $40M over 8 years.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Chip R

It'll be tough to lure any A-10 teams away from there since they just signed a deal with 3 networks for $40M over 8 years.

That's only $350k per school. That won't be hard to lure entire a team away...at all.

[Boston Red]

Originally Posted by Chip R

It'll be tough to lure any A-10 teams away from there since they just signed a deal with 3 networks for $40M over 8 years.

Xavier will say yes before they can even finish getting the question out.

[Caveat Emperor]

Yeah -- that's a no-brainer switch for Xavier, and I'd be shocked if the Catholic League doesn't get more money from a media deal than the A10.

Mack and Bobinski are already dreaming of championship games at MSG and hosting Georgetown, Marquette and 'Nova every season.

[jojo]

Originally Posted by wolfboy

I think the following link addresses the points raised by both CE and jojo:

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2012...e-this-season/

As to jojo's point, clearly the teams in this new conference won't get as many appearances as other conferences; however, they will still get more television exposure than the everyone outside of the big 5.

I think the link also supports two points I've made: (i) that people do in fact watch these teams; and, (ii) that the big 5 conferences have games that few people watch. Cincinnati and Boise, the two flagship programs for this new conference had respectable ratings for their televised games, ranging from 1.0 to 2.7. Granted, this is nowhere near the premier match ups from the power 5 conferences, but no one is claiming that this new conference stacks up with those guys. If you add in BYU, that's another team that can bring a respectable rating. Outside of the Pitt game, even USF did pretty well in its televised games.

Are these ratings on par with premier SEC matchups? Heck no. At the same time, they're hardly "ESPN 12" material. I know you don't care for these teams jojo, but I think these ratings show that at least some people do. There is some value in a media deal for this conference, especially since NBC is desperate for inventory and it's the only conference on the market right now. Will it approach anything remotely close to what even the ACC gets? No way. Then again, as the sixth best conference in college football, it will get the sixth best contract.

As to CE's point about the MAC, I think these ratings show just how terrible a move that would be for UC. The MAC championship game, which sent NIU to a BCS bowl, only garnered a .9 rating. No one cares about MAC football at all, and UC would destroy its football program if it joined up with the MAC. Even with the Cinderella story of NIU this year, no one really watched.

I think the best move for UC right now, if they can negotiate it, is to go all sports with the new C7 league, and go football only with the teams mentioned in the DeCourcy article. The C7 bball contract should be fairly lucrative, and they can add icing to the cake with the new football conference. In the mean time, keep winning, upgrade facilities, and see where you land when realignment crops up again.

I think UC should shoot higher.

[Caveat Emperor]

Originally Posted by jojo

I think UC should shoot higher.

I agree (you associate with mid-majors, you're going to inevitably get lumped in with mid-majors), but no one else wants them. They either would have to go independent (and get no TV money at all) or join some conference full of bad programs.