Who is Redszone's #3 prospect? 2013

[texasdave]

1) Billy Hamilton
2) Robert Stephenson


Here is where it might start to get interesting. Pick away. I am going with Johnny Junior (Daniel Corcino) and hoping that lightning strikes twice.

[Scrap Irony]

Cingrani.

Considered both Corcino and Cingrani, then looked at production across same levels, age, handedness, size, scouting reports, and experience. Cingrani's got a decided edge in three of those areas. Two are pushes, and one goes to Corcino.

Cingrani has a real chance to help the bullpen this year as a shut-down LH, though that may waste his arm somewhat. Right now, he's a LH JJ Hoover with upside.

Corcino's climbing BB rate and his dropping K rate concerns me. I still see him as nice AAA depth this season, with an outside chance at replacing Arroyo next season as fifth starter.

[mth123]

Cingrani. Lower chance of being a complete bust. A late inning reliever almost certainly with a chance of being a solid or better starter.

Its close though. Couldn't argue with Corcino here.

[Ohayou]

Originally had Corcino ranked above Cingrani in my last Top 10, finally decided to flip the two after seeing a little more of Tony.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

Cingrani.

Considered both Corcino and Cingrani, then looked at production across same levels, age, handedness, size, scouting reports, and experience. Cingrani's got a decided edge in three of those areas. Two are pushes, and one goes to Corcino.

Corcino has a decided edge in pro experience and experience as a starter. Corcino has 58 starts in full-season pro ball before his 22nd birthday. At the same age, Cingrani was still getting his feet wet in rookie ball and making the transition from college closer to pro starter.

Corcino also has an advantage in age relative to level. He has been young for every league he has pitched in. Cingrani hadn't been considered young for any league he was in prior to his mid-season promotion to the Southern League in 2012.

I'd also give Corcino an edge in scouting reports. Better velocity, better breaking stuff, and more confident in using his secondary offerings. The only downside I see is his tiny frame. I don't see handedness being an edge one way or the other. 70% of the pitchers in MLB get by just fine throwing with their right hand. Sure, being a lefty might help a fringe guy hang around on a big league roster, but the hope for both of these guys is that they are WAY better than fringe players.

[lollipopcurve]

Cingrani, easy

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

... Corcino also has an advantage in age relative to level. He has been young for every league he has pitched in. Cingrani hadn't been considered young for any league he was in prior to his mid-season promotion to the Southern League in 2012.

And, by the end of that year, Cingrani was in the majors, while Corcino was still in AA. Cingrani, at the same level, at roughly the same age, did much, much better.

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I'd also give Corcino an edge in scouting reports. Better velocity, better breaking stuff, and more confident in using his secondary offerings.

We apparently talk to/ read different scouts. Swing and miss percentages also seem to show a major difference here; that helps determine stuff, as it's not always about how hard someone can throw, but with what movement/ deception they throw it.

Originally Posted by Steve4192

The only downside I see is his tiny frame.

Corcino is a max-effort guy. That often leads to arm woes and, IMO, is a major danger sign.

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I don't see handedness being an edge one way or the other. 70% of the pitchers in MLB get by just fine throwing with their right hand. Sure, being a lefty might help a fringe guy hang around on a big league roster, but the hope for both of these guys is that they are WAY better than fringe players.

Being a lefty means your natural stuff plays up. A lefty with a 92 mph fastball is tougher to hit than a RH with a 92 mph fastball because the arm angle and pitch rotation is less common. It's a fairly big deal, IMO.

[Steve4192]

Scrap,

those are all valid points, but I still see Cingrani as Sean Marshall-lite, while Corcino is Johnny Cueto-lite. If I had to choose between them, I'd choose the Cueto clone.

[Scrap Irony]

Fair enough.

Different strokes, and all that.

[dougdirt]

Corcino. Much safer bet to be a Major League starting pitcher.

[JaxRed]

Absolutely Cingrani

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Corcino. Much safer bet to be a Major League starting pitcher.

I'd counter that Cingrani looks to be a safer bet to be an effective pitcher. It may be from the pen, but "meh" starters are easier to find than effective bullpen lefties (I'd rather have Jeremy Affeldt than say Jason Marquis). Add the possibility that Cingrani could easily be just as effective in the rotation as Corcino and that tips the scales IMO.

It's close though. This post probably makes it seem that I feel more strongly than I actually do.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

I'd counter that Cingrani looks to be a safer bet to be an effective pitcher. It may be from the pen, but "meh" starters are easier to find than effective bullpen lefties (I'd rather have Jeremy Affeldt than say Jason Marquis). Add the possibility that Cingrani could easily be just as effective in the rotation as Corcino and that tips the scales IMO.

It's close though. This post probably makes it seem that I feel more strongly than I actually do.

I don't know. Put Corcino in the bullpen and he probably has a mid 90's fastball and a really nice slider.

Put Cingrani in the bullpen and he is still a guy who wants to throw 80% fastballs who doesn't trust his change up.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Put Cingrani in the bullpen and he is still a guy who wants to throw 80% fastballs who doesn't trust his change up.

Well, that and two less hits than IP, a K rate of 16.2, and an ERA of 1.80. (SSS, I realize.)

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I don't know. Put Corcino in the bullpen and he probably has a mid 90's fastball and a really nice slider.

Put Cingrani in the bullpen and he is still a guy who wants to throw 80% fastballs who doesn't trust his change up.

But Cingrani's command makes it highly likely that the fastball will be an effective pitch if its limited to three or four hitters per game. I don't have that same "surprised if he's not at least useful" feeling about Corcino...

Corcino could be better, but I think Cingrani is a lot safer.