Who is Redszone's #3 prospect? 2013

[Kc61]

I'm the only one, but I've got Winker.

Kid seems to be such an outstanding contact/OBP hitter that I'd expect him to be very likely to be a successful major leaguer.

Obviously, high level starting pitchers are worth more, but I don't see either Cingrani or Corcino to be a lock as a successful MLB pitcher.

So after Hamliton and Stephenson, I've got Winker.

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by Kc61

I'm the only one, but I've got Winker.

Kid seems to be such an outstanding contact/OBP hitter that I'd expect him to be very likely to be a successful major leaguer.

Obviously, high level starting pitchers are worth more, but I don't see either Cingrani or Corcino to be a lock as a successful MLB pitcher.

So after Hamliton and Stephenson, I've got Winker.

I like Winker quite a bit, but Billings has created a plethora of pyrite prospects at the plate over the years. I'll be a LOT more confident in Winker once we see what he can do in Dayton.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I like Winker quite a bit, but Billings has created a whole of pyrite prospects at the plate over the years. I'll be a LOT more confident in Winker once we see what he can do in Dayton.

How many of them were first rounders who also showed off excellent plate discipline while being teenagers though? We should also note that Cobb Field was hitter friendly, while Dehler Park is pretty neutral.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by mth123

But Cingrani's command makes it highly likely that the fastball will be an effective pitch if its limited to three or four hitters per game. I don't have that same "surprised if he's not at least useful" feeling about Corcino...

Corcino could be better, but I think Cingrani is a lot safer.

I just don't know how you can have that feeling about Corcino. I can see where you could be more comfortable with Cingrani as a reliever. I don't agree with it, but I can see it. I just can't see how you can look at Corcino, who as a starter can hit 96-97 every now and again with a good slider and not feel he would be "at least useful".

[Steve4192]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

How many of them were first rounders who also showed off excellent plate discipline while being teenagers though?

Kind of a silly question.

Since the turn of the century, only four players fit your age/draft position criteria (Winker, Mesoraco, Bruce, David Espinosa). Of those four, only two played at Billings (Winker, Bruce) and only one played at Billings and subsequently advanced to the majors (Bruce). It's kind of hard to draw any meaningful comparisons when you put such an extreme limitation on your data.

[mth123]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

I just don't know how you can have that feeling about Corcino. I can see where you could be more comfortable with Cingrani as a reliever. I don't agree with it, but I can see it. I just can't see how you can look at Corcino, who as a starter can hit 96-97 every now and again with a good slider and not feel he would be "at least useful".

I guess its Cingrani's ability to spot his fastball wherever he wants it. That seems like a bankable skill. Corcino has good pitches, but they don't seem as bankable as Cingrani's fastball command. Maybe I'm over-estimating Cingrani's ability here, but if he can spot the fastball the way I understand he can, that would make him a near certainty as a reliever. Corcino has good stuff and good pitches, but seems to have a greater chance to miss out and become a non-factor.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

I like Winker quite a bit, but Billings has created a plethora of pyrite prospects at the plate over the years. I'll be a LOT more confident in Winker once we see what he can do in Dayton.

I also considered the reports on Winker before he played at Billings, when the Reds drafted him. I also considered his excellent K/BB ratio which really isn't a Billings thing. I also considered his .443 OBP at Billings, which is outstanding in any league. Drop 50 or 60 points off his OBP, it's still excellent.

If I were to be critical of my own selection, it's possible I'm influenced by the Reds' need, which includes lefty hitters who get on base.

To commend my own pick, however, I don't see Cingrani or Corcino as being in the highest echelon of pitching prospects, so it's fair IMO to give this spot to Jesse Winker.

I would vote for Cingrani fourth and Corcino fifth.

[Scrap Irony]

Good points on Winker. I really, really like his numbers.

But he's so far away and the distance between is vast as Ozymandias' desert.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Steve4192

Kind of a silly question.

Since the turn of the century, only four players fit your age/draft position criteria (Winker, Mesoraco, Bruce, David Espinosa). Of those four, only two played at Billings (Winker, Bruce) and only one played at Billings and subsequently advanced to the majors (Bruce). It's kind of hard to draw any meaningful comparisons when you put such an extreme limitation on your data.

Well then your original statement was kind of silly if you aren't going to be comparing him to players similar to him isn't it? I mean, yeah, guys like Chris Valaika and Danny Dorn hit really well in Billings, but they aren't comparable to Winker. Historically, there really aren't too many comparables for Winker on the numbers side of things. Going back to 1995, there have been all of 9 18-year-olds with a K/BB of 1.5 or better in the Pioneer League. Some Major Leaguers in there. Some guys I have never heard of too. Just seems silly to be unsure of him because other guys have hit there and not turned out. Other guys don't fit his profile at all.

[Kc61]

Corcino's K rate dropped to 7.9 per nine innings at AA.

Seems a little light to me at that level. And a 4.1 walk rate.

It's so impossible to distinguish between the next few guys, but that K rate might be a factor.

[klw]

Would this be our earliest run-off ever?

[Edd Roush]

I went with Cingrani last time, so I obviously will go with him again here. I think he has a chance to make a major impact on the Reds in 2013 and he is the second most valuable prospect in our system.

[texasdave]

Anyone remember the runoff rules? Does it have to be a tie? Within one vote? I am not exactly sure of that procedure. Help.

[Kc61]

Originally Posted by texasdave

Anyone remember the runoff rules? Does it have to be a tie? Withing one vote? I am not exactly sure of that procedure. Help.

It changes slightly from year to year.

Since you began the polling, I think you have the option to decide on the rules.

You can select the vote differential needed for a re-vote.

I seem to recall it was once three votes, but it's just based on memory.

Really, whatever you want, your call.

[mace]

Originally Posted by texasdave

Anyone remember the runoff rules? Does it have to be a tie? Withing one vote? I am not exactly sure of that procedure. Help.

Two suggestions:

1. Be a dictator.

2. Streamline as much as possible.

Although I do think we've done runoffs on very close votes, it certainly wouldn't bother me to restrict it to ties. I mean, if we held a runoff and a guy won by a vote, that would stand. Seems to me that a win is a win--why complicate it? I don't think there would be an outcry if you did it that way. But that said, I'm good with whatever you choose to do. If there is a runoff, I'd definitely shorten the time frame for the vote.