Dickey to Jays almost done

[DGullett35]

The last 3 years Dickey has been one of the best pitchers in the game. He deserves his 15 or 16 mil a year. Knuckleballers seem to get better with time. I say pay the man. Im really not a big fan of teams going into the offseason and spending hundreds of millions of dollars. It didnt work for the Marlins or Angles last year. Seems like it didnt help the Dodgers in the 2nd half of last year. My guess is the Jays, Dodgers, and Angles will probably all struggle a little bit in 2013. The way to build a team is how the Indians of the 90's did it and how the Reds are doing it now. Im a big believer in team chemistry and it starts in the minor leagues with your young nucleus. Spending all that money may be good for the fan base to talk about but it seems like it rarely works how its supposed too.

[Vottomatic]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/blue-ja...072207624.html

Blue Jays gutting their farm system to win it all.

D'Arnaud and Gose most likely going to Mets for Dickey.

[LegallyMinded]

Looks like the Jays are surrendering Travis d'Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck, and a prospect to be determined later. I liked this deal for the Blue Jays much better back when JP Arencibia was potentially going instead of d'Arnaud. As it stands now, they'd be giving away their first and third best prospects in the deal. That's got to be one of the best-ever returns for a 38-year old pitcher. Perhaps the Jays are concerned about d'Arnaud's injury from last year, and aren't as high on him as they once were?

[bucksfan2]

I don't get RA Dickey. He is a good pitcher, has a pretty darn good knuckleball, but he is 38 years old. I firmly believe had he not pitched in NY and released a book in the off season detailing his past he doesn't win the CY Young award last year. I think he became a media darling early in the season and rode that to a CY Young. His ERA+ was behind both Cueto and Kershaw who were in playoff contention for the entire year.

I also think his contract situation was a media creation. What rebuilding franchise decides to doll out a 3-4 year contract to a 38 year old? The NY media was saying the Mets had to and Dickey smartly capitalized on that. I wish him the best going forward because he is the type of player you want to root for, but the whole situation surrounding him over the past month has had me scratching my head saying "really!?!?"

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by Edd Roush

I don't agree that the Jays are in overpay mode. I think this Dickey trade is very similar to the Latos deal the Reds made last year. The Jays are trading from redundancies to land a TOR starter.

I agree in principle, though Dickey's age and lack of any sort of consistent track record makes this extremely risky. I'll be very surprised if he comes close to replicating his 2012 performance, personally.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus

I agree in principle, though Dickey's age and lack of any sort of consistent track record makes this extremely risky. I'll be very surprised if he comes close to replicating his 2012 performance, personally.

The strikeout increase really jumps out at you, but 2010-2011 he posted a 3.08 ERA, so it isn't like there isn't some consistency there, or even a far jump in "his production".

[RedsManRick]

Since 2010, Dickey has the 30th highest fWAR (basically FIP x IP x park adjustment). The guys around him are Hiroki Kuroda, Justin Masterson, Mark Buehrle. He' just 0.5 WAR behind Cueto.

Yes, his track record is odd and he's not an "ace", but I see no reason to doubt he'll continue to be an effective starter.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

The strikeout increase really jumps out at you, but 2010-2011 he posted a 3.08 ERA, so it isn't like there isn't some consistency there, or even a far jump in "his production".

That's my concern, though. He's far outperformed the FIP three years in a row. Being a knuckleballer, perhaps that's less an issue, but I just wonder if, at his age, he'll replicate the strikeout rate and continue to perform to this level. He's never had above-average strikeout rates in his career until this season. I truly doubt at age 38 it will continue.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

Since 2010, Dickey has the 30th highest fWAR (basically FIP x IP x park adjustment). The guys around him are Hiroki Kuroda, Justin Masterson, Mark Buehrle. He' just 0.5 WAR behind Cueto.

Yes, his track record is odd and he's not an "ace", but I see no reason to doubt he'll continue to be an effective starter.

Being an effective starter and being worth one or two of your best prospects aren't one in the same. I don't doubt he'll put up another year or two of being effective. I truly doubt he'll be anything like he was this past season or worth giving up your best prospects for.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus

That's my concern, though. He's far outperformed the FIP three years in a row. Being a knuckleballer, perhaps that's less an issue, but I just wonder if, at his age, he'll replicate the strikeout rate and continue to perform to this level. He's never had above-average strikeout rates in his career until this season. I truly doubt at age 38 it will continue.

FIP doesn't really work for knuckleballers though. We have known that for a while.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

FIP doesn't really work for knuckleballers though. We have known that for a while.

We've known that it doesn't work as well (which is why I mentioned that because he's a knuckleballer, it's probably not as big an issue). That doesn't mean it doesn't work at all. There's still a correlation.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus

We've known that it doesn't work as well (which is why I mentioned that because he's a knuckleballer, it's probably not as big an issue). That doesn't mean it doesn't work at all. There's still a correlation.

So we don't really know if he has outperformed his FIP, right?

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

So we don't really know if he has outperformed his FIP, right?

Yes we do. It's still predictive. The correlation has shown that through research. It's just not quite as much a tight standard error as non-knuckleball pitchers.

It's akin to comparing batting average to on-base percentage when stacking up against run scoring. They both correlate pretty well to run scoring. One correlates better than another, though.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by Brutus

Yes we do. It's still predictive. The correlation has shown that through research. It's just not quite as much a tight standard error as non-knuckleball pitchers.

It's akin to comparing batting average to on-base percentage when stacking up against run scoring. They both correlate pretty well to run scoring. One correlates better than another, though.

And we know that even with "normal pitchers" it is predictive, but not definitive. With so few knuckleballers, the error bars are even higher. Toss in that I don't know that we have ever had a knuckleballer who throws as hard as Dickey does and we are working on an entirely different level. So no, we don't really know if he is outperforming his "FIP" or not. You are making some awful large assumptions on an already presumptuous theory.

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

And we know that even with "normal pitchers" it is predictive, but not definitive. With so few knuckleballers, the error bars are even higher. Toss in that I don't know that we have ever had a knuckleballer who throws as hard as Dickey does and we are working on an entirely different level. So no, we don't really know if he is outperforming his "FIP" or not. You are making some awful large assumptions on an already presumptuous theory.

FIP is a calculation. Considering it is an *estimate* of what one's ERA would be expected to be based on peripherals, it is absolutely 100% accurate to say he outperformed his FIP... because he did. He outperformed his estimators. That's not even remotely debatable. And again, it is an "estimate" and nowhere did I say it was definitive; it's simply an estimator. But research shows that FIP does have a high correlation for knuckleballers, so therefore, one should not necessarily expect him to continually outperform his FIP.

There's nothing to debate here. It's an estimate that has a high correlation. It's not an exact science nor was it being positioned as such. He outperformed his estimator. Doesn't mean he can't or won't continue to do so, but he did the past three years.