Who will be the Reds MVP in the second half of the decade?

[Wonderful Monds]

Originally Posted by Vottomatic

Yeah, Latos kind of reminds me of Volquez. Not stuff-wise, but mentally. Seems to have all the tools, but I'm not sure he has the mental make-up for what it takes to be great.

But he's still "young" and has a few years before we decide he's done developing.

He was great last year, emotional hiccups on the mound included. He's certainly no Volquez.

[reds44]

Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds

Yes. He's got a lot to prove still to me. I have no doubt he can annually put up seasons like last season, but as for Cy Young stuff, he has to show a little more.

I think he can do it, but he does have to prove it first. He was nails for that game but the wheels came off after a few bad calls.

Agreed. He's already a really good pitcher overall, but he still has something to prove before I'm putting him in that class.

[MikeThierry]

I might get beat up here in the Reds Zone but I don't see it with Hamilton. I think he will get a good player but I just cannot see him being the MVP for the Reds. If he's the MVP for the Reds with the lack of power, I think the Reds will be in trouble the next half of the decade if this is the case. I seem Hamilton as a good leadoff hitter but I don't see his speed being something that will make him more valuable than a 30 HR+, 100+ RBI per year guy.

*puts helmet on preparing for a Reds Zone beatdown.

EDIT: I'm actually willing to put real money on the idea that a prospect like Oscar Taveras will have a greater career arc than Hamilton simply because Taveras brings more power and better place discipline to the table.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by MikeThierry

I'm actually willing to put real money on the idea that a prospect like Oscar Taveras will have a greater career arc than Hamilton simply because Taveras brings more power and better place discipline to the table.

I'd take Taveras any day of the week over Hamilton. I doubt there isn't any GM in baseball who would disagree with that.

[MikeThierry]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

I'd take Taveras any day of the week over Hamilton. I doubt there isn't any GM in baseball who would disagree with that.

I find it odd that we have been agreeing on things more recently than in the past. Maybe the Mayan Apocalypes is happeing.

[Scrap Irony]

I think Hamilton will bring a unique skillset to the table.

If he can obp somewhere between .350 and .400, he'll get 100+ stolen bases.

That would mean Taveras (or anyone else, for that matter) would have to hit 30 HR more than Hamilton and find another 10 bases on top of that between stolen bases and doubles/ triples that Hamilton doesn't. (I'm assuming Hamilton's doubles and triples will continue to roughly equal Taveras' doubles and triples.)

It's certainly possible that Taveras could do that-- he's probably the second- or third- best prospect in baseball right now behind Wil Myers and Jackson Profrar. But that's an awful long hill to climb.

It's possible that Hamilton becomes an early career Tim Raines or a Brett Butler leadoff hitter. Both of those guys are HOF, IMO.

He may not. Some speed guys don't pan out. Then again, Taveras' numbers are pretty close to those of Brad Komminsk.

[PuffyPig]

Originally Posted by Scrap Irony

I think Hamilton will bring a unique skillset to the table.

If he can obp somewhere between .350 and .400, he'll get 100+ stolen bases.

That would mean Taveras (or anyone else, for that matter) would have to hit 30 HR more than Hamilton and find another 10 bases on top of that between stolen bases and doubles/ triples that Hamilton doesn't. (I'm assuming Hamilton's doubles and triples will continue to roughly equal Taveras' doubles and triples.)

It's certainly possible that Taveras could do that-- he's probably the second- or third- best prospect in baseball right now behind Wil Myers and Jackson Profrar. But that's an awful long hill to climb.

It's possible that Hamilton becomes an early career Tim Raines or a Brett Butler leadoff hitter. Both of those guys are HOF, IMO.

He may not. Some speed guys don't pan out. Then again, Taveras' numbers are pretty close to those of Brad Komminsk.

IIRC, a player needs to steal 70% of his bases for them to be even a break even value. I don't think you can simply add 100 bases to Hamilton's totals without taking into account how many times he's thrown out.

There is no way 100 stolen bases are worth 30 HR's. Because even if he is thrown out only 25 times (80% success rate), that's a net 75 bases gained. And those bases do not advance any other runners.

[757690]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

IIRC, a player needs to steal 70% of his bases for them to be even a break even value. I don't think you can simply add 100 bases to Hamilton's totals without taking into account how many times he's thrown out.

There is no way 100 stolen bases are worth 30 HR's. Because even if he is thrown out only 25 times (80% success rate), that's a net 75 bases gained. And those bases do not advance any other runners.

I'd rather have Taveras than Hamilton for a bunch of reasons; however, Hamilton's value will come more from his general running on the base paths (getting those extra bases on his and other's hits) than his stolen bases. It's actually going to be hard to measure the impact he has on the bases, since there really hasn't been anyone with his speed, in the game recently.

[Scrap Irony]

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

IIRC, a player needs to steal 70% of his bases for them to be even a break even value. I don't think you can simply add 100 bases to Hamilton's totals without taking into account how many times he's thrown out.

There is no way 100 stolen bases are worth 30 HR's. Because even if he is thrown out only 25 times (80% success rate), that's a net 75 bases gained. And those bases do not advance any other runners.

The percentage of stolen base value depends on runs. As runs go down (and they are), SB success rate doesn't need be so high. However, you're absolutely right in calculating in CS. I failed to do so.

[RedsManRick]

I'm really surprised I'm the only one who said was somebody not in the organization.

[kaldaniels]

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I'm really surprised I'm the only one who said was somebody not in the organization.

Care to elaborate? Future draft pick? Trade or free agent?

It's not bad logic as other than minor leaguers, few Reds are controlled past 2017 or so. But I'd go with the field of Votto + our current minor leaguers over the field of yet to be acquired minor leaguers.