How inconsistent is Jay Bruce?

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

15 of 17 this year says otherwise.

The few years before then were bad though.

True, he is better at picking his spots, for awhile there he was hoping his speed would compensate. Last year was plenteous enough for BP.

[Jpup]

Originally Posted by westofyou

He can run, he just can't steal anymore

He can't run fast anymore. He's a smart runner, but not very fast.

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by M2

Real interesting study. Apparently one of the keys to being what we define as a great hitter is a lack of volatility - Jeter, Rose, Suzuki, Boggs, Molitor and Gwynn are some of the least volatile hitters in recent history. And it underlines how amazing Jeter is. I'm married to a Yankees fan, so I see a pile of Yankees games every year. Jeter is a force of nature. Game after game he's at the center of key moments. He's relentless and that's why he's revered as a quasi-religious icon by Yankees fans. The more you watch him the more you come to appreciate just how amazing a player he is.

Spot on. You can tell the guys who only evaluate based on stats by their opinion of Jeter. If they say he's overrated, it's a pretty safe bet they haven't watched the guy play much.

Historically, the guy I've always appreciated more than most is Keith Hernandez. Like Jeter, it seemed like he was involved in every game-deciding play, and most of the time he made the key defensive play or got the big hit to decide it in his team's favor. Some think first base defense isn't that important or that it doesn't provide much differentiation, and most of the time, they're probably right. But that's because no one I have seen before or since played it the way Hernandez did. What a weapon.

Sorry for the tangent. Please return to debating the streakiness of Jay Bruce.

[westofyou]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

Spot on. You can tell the guys who only evaluate based on stats by their opinion of Jeter. If they say he's overrated, it's a pretty safe bet they haven't watched the guy play much.

Historically, the guy I've always appreciated more than most is Keith Hernandez. Like Jeter, it seemed like he was involved in every game-deciding play, and most of the time he made the key defensive play or got the big hit to decide it in his team's favor. Some think first base defense isn't that important or that it doesn't provide much differentiation, and most of the time, they're probably right. But that's because no one I have seen before or since played it the way Hernandez did. What a weapon.

Sorry for the tangent. Please return to debating the streakiness of Jay Bruce.

They said the same thing about Hal Chase.. seriously they did.

[MikeThierry]

On a personal experience here, I think Pujols is the most consistent player I've ever seen. I was surprised he wasn't on the list.

[Vottomatic]

Originally Posted by Jpup

He can't run fast anymore. He's a smart runner, but not very fast.

I wouldn't label BP as slow though. That's kind of the what you're insinuating.

He's no Drew Stubbs. But then again, BP doesn't have to steal 1B either.

[M2]

Originally Posted by westofyou

They said the same thing about Hal Chase.. seriously they did.

That's because he used black magic to control the writers' minds.

[gilpdawg]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

Spot on. You can tell the guys who only evaluate based on stats by their opinion of Jeter. If they say he's overrated, it's a pretty safe bet they haven't watched the guy play much.

I don't believe that's necessarily true. Jeter is a HOF caliber player and over-rated at the same time. He's fantastic. The New York/East Coast media are the ones who have made him over-rated by making him out to be the second coming of Baseball Jesus. He's not better than Craig Biggio, of course, I think Biggio is great, so your mileage may vary on that one.


Edited to add-After I posted this...I looked at Jeter's BR page. I swear I didn't know this before I pulled that example out of my butt. Number 1 on Jeter's similar players list...Craig Biggio. Headasplode.

[osuceltic]

Originally Posted by gilpdawg

I don't believe that's necessarily true. Jeter is a HOF caliber player and over-rated at the same time. He's fantastic. The New York/East Coast media are the ones who have made him over-rated by making him out to be the second coming of Baseball Jesus. He's not better than Craig Biggio, of course, I think Biggio is great, so your mileage may vary on that one.


Edited to add-After I posted this...I looked at Jeter's BR page. I swear I didn't know this before I pulled that example out of my butt. Number 1 on Jeter's similar players list...Craig Biggio. Headasplode.

You made my point for me.

[rgslone]

Bruce is basically helpless with 2 strikes. When he gets down 2 strikes I always reflexively smirk because I know what's coming next - a strikeout. If that issue could be improved, e.g., maybe make an adjustment with 2 strikes (see Votto), then his "consistency" and numbers would look much better.

Bruce is a good player, and position of strength on the team. But every player has things that could be improved upon. No reason a player can't try to make some adjustments to do that; and I wish Bruce would would work on his 2 strike approach this offseason.

[dougdirt]

Originally Posted by osuceltic

You made my point for me.

Did he though? How many people out there would ever even contemplate placing Derek Jeter and Craig Biggio on the same level?

[gilpdawg]

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Did he though? How many people out there would ever even contemplate placing Derek Jeter and Craig Biggio on the same level?

My point was actually more that Biggio was underrated than Jeter was super over. If Biggio had played for NYY there would be no question as to his HOF candidacy. And that's not a knock on Jeter. Almost everyone who plays in New York gets that bump. Texieira is an average player who gets treated like a superstar.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk 2

[M2]

Two big differences between Biggio and Jeter:

1) Biggio made his bones by beating up on weaker pitchers. That's not an entirely bad thing. MLB was flush with bad pitching during his career and he made the schlubs pay for it. Yet he also struggled mightily against good pitchers and generally performed a disappearing act in the playoffs. Meanwhile Jeter hits good pitching about as well as anyone we've ever seen. His playoffs stats are actually a hair better than his regular season stats. It's yet another reason why Jeter is worshipped. There's a firm reality behind the hype. BTW, Jeter's got 3,504 career hits and he's 9th on the career runs scored list if you count his playoff numbers (and I remain under the firm belief that those games count).

2) Jeter's aged better. It probably goes towards him being a less volatile player. There's a reason Jeter was heading up the list that started this thread and Biggio's not on it, and it says more than a little bit about the differences between them.

Plus, far as I can tell, Jeter has Biggio trumped for career value across the board. Use any measuring stick you want, Jeter's ahead. They're certainly similar creatures in many respects, but Jeter's been the better of the two.

[Chip R]

Originally Posted by M2

Two big differences between Biggio and Jeter:

1) Biggio made his bones by beating up on weaker pitchers. That's not an entirely bad thing. MLB was flush with bad pitching during his career and he made the schlubs pay for it. Yet he also struggled mightily against good pitchers and generally performed a disappearing act in the playoffs. Meanwhile Jeter hits good pitching about as well as anyone we've ever seen. His playoffs stats are actually a hair better than his regular season stats. It's yet another reason why Jeter is worshipped. There's a firm reality behind the hype. BTW, Jeter's got 3,504 career hits and he's 9th on the career runs scored list if you count his playoff numbers (and I remain under the firm belief that those games count).

2) Jeter's aged better. It probably goes towards him being a less volatile player. There's a reason Jeter was heading up the list that started this thread and Biggio's not on it, and it says more than a little bit about the differences between them.

Plus, far as I can tell, Jeter has Biggio trumped for career value across the board. Use any measuring stick you want, Jeter's ahead. They're certainly similar creatures in many respects, but Jeter's been the better of the two.

Well, Jeter had more opportunities to hit that good pitching since his teams made the playoffs more often than HOU did. As for the regular season, these things even out. Jeter got to hit against Tampa and Baltimore pitching quite a bit while Biggio got to hit against Reds and Pirates pitching a lot - I'd include the Cubs but they weren't total crap during the mid 90s and early 00s.

One thing about Biggio that always bothered me was that he always wore that armor on his arm all the time and if anyone dared to pitch inside he would just let the ball hit him on the armor and trot down to 1st. I know he was just taking advantage of the rules at the time but it's a lot tougher to pitch to a guy when you know you can't come inside on him.

I think there's a lot of merit to the theory that if Biggio and Jeter switched organizations, Biggio would be the fair-haired boy and Jeter would have toiled in obscurity. In a way, that's not fair to the NY players because people are going to say that a great player's success in NYC was in part because he played there. It's probably not fair to a guy like Jeter and definitely not someone like Rivera but might be more fair to a guy like Pettit or Posada.

[M2]

Originally Posted by Chip R

Well, Jeter had more opportunities to hit that good pitching since his teams made the playoffs more often than HOU did.

Had Biggio hit in October like Jeter his teams might have won a few extra series and he'd have gotten more playoff games as a result. Yet it's not really the counting stats where I'm making my point (though I firmly believe playing stats should count toward career totals). Biggio went .234/.295/.323 in the playoffs. Jeter is .308/.375/.465. Regular season or postseason, Biggio never could hit good pitching. Jeter always could.

Originally Posted by Chip R

As for the regular season, these things even out. Jeter got to hit against Tampa and Baltimore pitching quite a bit while Biggio got to hit against Reds and Pirates pitching a lot - I'd include the Cubs but they weren't total crap during the mid 90s and early 00s.

They both saw plenty of bad pitching with their 1996-2007 overlap. I don't have the studies at my fingertips, but Biggio has some of the most lopsided career numbers ever when it comes to how well he hit bad pitching and how poorly he hit good pitching. Meanwhile, Jeter is just about the steadiest guy who ever lived in that regard.

What it boils down to is you could airlift Jeter into any era - deadball, 1960s - and he'd still produce. Biggio feasted on a bad pitching era. He reached his prime exactly when the 1993 expansion hit and probably was able to scuffle his way to 3,000 hits thanks to the 1998 expansion. Biggio was a great player. I'd vote him into the HOF straight away, but he's definitely a product of his era. He was wired to thrash bad pitchers during the regular season of a hitters' era.

Jeter's risen beyond that because he's shown himself to be a truly rare animal. When you look at who the steadiest hitters are and at how the guys are that do the best against good pitching and at the guys who perform the best in the postseason, Jeter is at the top of the list. It's substance, not hype.